Online
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
Market Analysis - Technical View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
udydudy-This time around Indians are buying not FII`s!!FII`s and Hedge Funds seem to be broke!!...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by :
udydudy
Chief_Kamani
Roping in FIIs was the best thingthat happened to the Indian markets. The bad thingthat happened (common in every market) was that greed got way into rational thinking at 21000. Rather than get out many got in.
Same way(atleast for people in cash) The FIIs by their stampede mentality(on both sides to & bottom) have brought A group shares to mouth watering levels one should surely buy now at these levels atleast into shares which have single digit PEs and book values.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
dear sp.palo,
our market is been fii driven and and global situation will improve or go down ,no one knows.now days,nothing is impossible. investor confidence is shattered and they will be happy if volatility cools down and market stabilize at this level.
cheers!!...
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Downward logical target is near
Posted by :
sp.palo
dear sam_pd,
i fear the FII were waiting for this level of Nifty for selling. Still the global scenario is uncertain, so as our markets. Though todays pull back gave some confidence, still new low is possible if all FIIs decide to get out of India.
cheers
shakti
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
dear sam_pd,
i fear the FII were waiting for this level of Nifty for selling. Still the global scenario is uncertain, so as our markets. Though todays pull back gave some confidence, still new low is possible if all FIIs decide to get out of India.
cheers
shakti...
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Downward logical target is near
Posted by : sam_pd
Dear Bull2008,
When everyday some panic news is circulated and few big one eats all the liquidity and cry for help, no body knows what will happen next.let us see how long investor around the world will surrender to sheer manipulation and taken for ride.Few big ones will gather all the wealth from many many small ones.
at last nifty has given 200 points bounce. little stability is more important than this craziness of high volatility.let us hope some sense returns to market and annihilation of investor stops.
Cheers!!
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Bull2008,
When everyday some panic news is circulated and few big one eats all the liquidity and cry for help, no body knows what will happen next.let us see how long investor around the world will surrender to sheer manipulation and taken for ride.Few big ones will gather all the wealth from many many small ones.
at last nifty has given 200 points bounce. little stability is more important than this craziness of high volatility.let us hope some sense returns to market and annihilation of investor stops.
Cheers!!...
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Downward logical target is near
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear Sam
We may be near the intermediate bottom but the big question is if any of the big assets comes under pressure with might see freefalls once again. Other postive developments are
The Nuke deal too has been signed.
Crude has slipped below the 80$ mark.
Cheers
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
This market will go up more before seeing a slide... The first bottom I would again revisit the technical analysis is 8910 on the sensex and 2760 on the Nifty... This would give us further clues... As to will this be the bottom or not... Cheers......
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Sensex Technical View :
The preferred technical view that Sensex may take a bounce back from 10900-11500 has not gone in tandem with market moves. The next important technical levels are 9700-9500 which is the 61.8% correction which was a scenario taken in case there is much more selling seen and possibly we could give a bounce before going there. Sensex has touched 10200 almost and needs to be seen whether it goes to 9500-9700 or lower zones or gives a bounce from here and then consolidate at lower levels. On the long term charts 8799 the low made around 2006 and 2600 on Nifty are of supreme importance for the long term bull run. Continue to watch these levels and reactions.Once we see a bottom formation or hints of it we can cover views on how recovery periods were historically.
Although the timing of buying must have not been appropriate at 11k-12k levels, but as being repeated we have confined our investments to 50-60 % max which does leave us a good scope to buy on lower side in bargains or reduce investments at bounce backs for more comfort. Many stocks picked up would be down 10-30 % from acquisition pricce as buying has been looked in a staggered manner,small lots and we still do have some more apetite to buy and have strictly avoided real estate , pvt banks, capital goods in our preferred stocks and the selected ones do have the more chances of participating well in any bounce backs.
Majority of the value erosion has been seen in Real estate down 80-95 % , Pvt Banks and Capital goods have also seen major erosions. I have been very strict on avoiding these as these stocks may take lot of time to even give decent bounce backs and in real estate stocks total value erosion. In other stocks invested at sub 13k levels investors maybe seeing notional losses for the partial quantities but these stocks have good chances of coming back in stable times. But in real estate stocks the risk is going the 2000-2003 IT way. But high risk investors can take a risk buy 3-5 stocks of real estate companies like DLF,HDIL,Unitech,JP Associates etc at 15-5 % of peak slowly as somehow i feel these companies remain in business in next 2-4 years at least one or two may end up giving such returns to sidetrack losses of those who dont , and yes it will require patience and Risk....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Axis Bk up 11%; Q2 net 4.03 bln rupees vs 2.28 bln..........
Nifty fut tgt 1 achived call give at 3410 now 3454 Axis bank and Icici Bank calls are doing very well and achieved target ....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Buy Nifty Oct Fut 3439 TGT ........, 3500 SL .....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Sensex Up 430 Points With Nifty Up By Near 100 Points...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
..
ISIN :
International Securities Identification Number is a unique identification number for a security.
..
In-the-Money
A call option is said to be in the money when it has a strike price below the current price of the underlying commodity or security on which the option has been written. Likewise when a put option has a strike price above the current price it is said to be in the money.
..
TC-131008-S-01...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
//
Paid in Capital :
The difference between par or book-keeping value of a security and the amount realised from the sale or distribution of those shares by the company.
//
Paid up Capital :
The amount of capital, both equity and preference, paid up by the shareholders against the capital subscribed to by them.
//
TC-121008-S-01
Dear goldchest,
Very warm greetings. I owe you this post for a while.
I have been almost completely off MMB.
In between I dropped in a day, and sheer chance,
your post "The Last Stand" was the first one I saw.
Promptly, over the next two days, I sold
whatever else remained on my sell-list after
our last exchange.
Thanks friend. Thanks for the caution and the reminder.
I see today that you have restated
that the sensex is likely to drop to 8800.
Thanks once again.
As I requested last time, please do write
when you see it is time to buy.
As shared, most of my time in last two months
has been given as a volunteer for the Buddhist
Master Thich Nath Hanh`s visit to India.
Over the last fortnight I have
translated his discourses from English
into Hindi for the listners and sadhaks.
A unique and once in a life time
experience.
Thank GC once again, for yours service in your way.
Warm Regards
KM
...
In reply to:
The Last Stand !!
Posted by : goldchest
I would like to alert my friends on this Board that we are in the middle of a Meltdown.The excesses and froth of the 5 Yr Bull Run are being washed away with a vengeance.
I actually saw the Market turning in mid Jan 2008 and in a special intraday post on the Technical Board I had written in bold -- "Get out now".I must confess that we Technical Analysts learnt more lessons in the last 5 Yrs than in the preceeding quarter century.Nobody would have ever seen a Monthly Stochastic Chart the SENSEX displayed in the 6 months prior to the January bust.Two lines fused as one horizontal line at the maximum limit.
The Bull Run looked like it was over mid July 07 at a Sensex High of 15868.The support it took more than 2000 pts lower and subsequent breakout on 19 Sep 2007 was launch into EUPHORIA zone.The GAP it made that day was the problem.My experience knew that a Gap in "All Time High Zone" cannot sustain.You cannot have a fourth floor in a building without a 3rd Floor.At best the Gap gets filled in a few days or a few hundred points.Negative divergences in the Charts for all time periods told us its all over,give or take a few days.That this Gap took a load of over 5000 points over a four month period,is a miracle.I would not have given it a chance of even 1/10000.
Yes we have filled the Gap,in Jan 08 in just a few days.Lower Tops and Bottoms means excesses have not yet been washed out.The 12300/550 range of Sensex is the last support.The question for us is whether it will break?If this level breaks my RSI confirmation tells me we have a free fall,nothing will hold till we are safely in 4 digits.
Pray that we clear out 13500 because Sensex range 12500/13500 is the Precipice,only 1 day away from free fall.
Where will you place your Bets ??
Good Luck to All!
Goldchest.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Well Sir, U might have predicted the fall years ahead but thats nonetheless useful to ur readers because u changed ur mind at 2008 tops, And coming to charts I wud like to say something different, reading the charts of Japan`s Nikkeie before 1990 crash, many wud not have said that Nikkei was going to fall at 10K by 2008, because if that wud have being the case Nikkei wud have been at 10K in 1992 itself, So well I dont look at the charts in short term to get a long term view, well I dont even look at the charts of the Sensex to get a long term view (because of the little history associated), If i feel the bottom is near and I shud cover my shorts, I go out and look at Dow Jones historic charts, I look at Nikkie and Nasdaq charts and then only I look at sensex charts, and well the 2008 top that I had said was not by looking at Sensex but looking at Dow Jones, KLSE, Phillipenes Index, Nikkie Charts, so my theory might be right or wrong but it practically worked, Now with this theory I say Gold has target of 1400 US dollars for the Long term top. Lastly Shishupal commited 100 crime towards Shrikrishna before he got killed, The world Markets (Please dont say Economy, or Economy for all) have committed I feel 100 crimes towards Savers, Tax Payers, Poor Public and finally they are close to being get killed, Well I might be wrong and this may be the 99th instance only, with one more top remaining, but the charts wud definitely signal that, the first small signal might be sensex breaching 13K, big signal might be sensex breaching 15K. So well if that happens stop hamerring let shishupal commit one more crime. Oh again last words, NarendraJi Modi is a great leader, If he wud being PM we might not have being hand in glove of US, he might have created real growth, not the growth in the sensex....
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear amarakbar
Today sentiment is going to be good. DII investors are in shopping mood. TA amy not give clue at present condition. People are perdicting events based on globle trend. But Inidan economy is strong and that is going to be exibited to the whole world today
aahoo...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by :
me2_4india
Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions
Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn)
Dear Friends,
Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA.
Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more.
WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets
(I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message)
And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07
Dear friend,
It is an ageold practice.
Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON .
Oh, now this is the reason ! like that.
Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones.
I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani.
Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360
Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past !
Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there !
Their best gift to their late father.
Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS .
warm regards as always
And well on 29 DEC 08
In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010
rpl 120 223 510-558
rnrl 81 178 260-360
Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market
Dear Bearcartel,
My view at present is,
Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter.
For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE,
SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt
1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268
2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45
3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55
4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982
Dear Chartlover friends,
From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market-
MONTHLY CHART
1. January 2008 Big bull candle
Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements
2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE
Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking-
Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march .
FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls.
If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc
BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
3. March 2008 Big bull candle
making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear shakti,
Thank you for your appreciation and compliments.
Another fellow gujjubhai Narendra Modi has shown what GUJARAT and GUJARATIS stand for.
We are always there to help, to eliminate any negative thoughts, to offer SOLUTION to any problem.
When one is willing to work hard and when one is not harming anyone to achieve his or her goals, GOD ALWAYS HELPS.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : sp.palo
Gujju Bhai,
keep up the good work.
regards
shakti
Boarder Circle
