Vam,

MMB was an awakening... thats all i can say... read these boarders, my good luck... learnt a lot...

But i learnt TA in toto from ALEXANDER ELDER'S books... i moved at snail's pace, but the experience on MMB has been my inspiration.

Dint make much though. But trading energizes me.

Now let me check my excel for tomorrow... theory over now practicals.. LOL...

HEAD AND SHOULDERS

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Posted by : sainik at 00: 00 (27th Mar 04)

for those technically inclined, we all have noticed that the nifty as well as the sensex have formed a HEAD and SHOULDERS pattern in the last 2 months. if we assume the top of the HEAD as 1935 in the nifty and the neckline as 1760, then a downward target as per the classical theory should be 1935-1760=175 points below 1760 which comes to 1585. normally the price does not proceed straight to the target. it again reverts to the neckline and then falls towards the downward target. if we observe the price action on friday, we notice that the prices did try to touch the neckline and fell back slightly to close at 1947. further on monday we may see that they may try again to touch the neckline and then may start their downward journey. sometimes the prices may cross the neckline and confuse the analysts by going up about 2-3% over the neck line ie. 1775-1785 and then may fall back. the head a nd shoulders is a very reliable indicator of distribution and past studies by technical authors like JOHN MAGEE have shown that they FAIL only about 10% of the time. WILL IT BE THAT 10% THIS TIME.??? one should hope for the best but be prepared for the worst

Current Rating: (4)...

identifying stocks
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Posted by : sainik at 00: 00 (19th Nov 04)
Replied to an_indian | message

dear indian, after observing the movement of the stcoks and nifty in the derivatives for a long time, i have a 'formula", more like a "rule of the thumb" to identify strong and weak stocks. just consider the price of a particular stock at the opening of the derivative settlement and then consider its price around the mid of the penultimate week, say yesterday's closing rates could be ideal. if the price of the stock is significantly higher then one should buy this stock on any correction leading to the final week. as i had noted before the close of monday of the final week is a good time to buy, even if there has been no significant correction during the month . cheers...

Closing Prices

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Posted by : valueanalyser at 00: 00 (22nd Oct 04)
Replied to sainik | message

Dear Sir, Thanks very much for the immediate response. I will follow the indicators for a while and compare them with some historic data that I have, (when BSE showed the actual closing prices). Should be interesting. I think you will be interested in the Smart money index in particular. The theory is that the first 30 mins - 1 hr is made up of emotional investing - guys who have half-baked knowledge acting on unverifiable tips. Smart money usually tests the markets and makes the moves at the fag end. Its calculated by plotting (for the Sensex, or any index): Previous day close - Index at the end of the 1st half hour + index at close (smart money index) against only the current close (index). When the index makes a high without a corresponding smart money high, its a bearish divergence & time to sell. Similarly, if SMI makes starts rising and the index doesn't, its a bullish signal. Its good for long term players who don't want to be caught buying at the worst possible time. If you can manage the data for individual scrips, then you can even predict individual movement. Jindal Steel showed such a divergence on the 19th (based on prices and volume data on ICICI), and I had posted a warning on the JSPL board regarding a possible downside. It was 750+ then - quite probably just luck and I need to test this lots more before jumping to conclusions, but it sure looks promising.

Current Rating: Not Rated...

Survival First !

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Posted by : micky59 at 18: 56 (18th Jun 05)

The first goal of being in the markets is to ensure your survival.You need to avoid the risks that will put you out of business.Experts run the minute they smell trouble.Novices hang on and hope.
Good money management can keep you out of trouble.If you set modest goals and achieve them you can go far. An Amateur trader who opens a trading account with the express purpose of doubling his money can rest assured he will be wiped out.He will take risks to get rich quickly. He may succeed for a while but will eventually hang himself given enough rope.
If you make a 20% profit annually consider yourself a king.
If you bet a quarter of your account on a single trade your ruin is guaranteed.
You can lose a mere 2% of your equity on a single trade without damaging your long term prospects
Most traders will shake their heads at this. Their small accounts and the 2% rule will put a Monkey wrench into their get-rich-quick Scheme.Have a monthly x% limit loss rule too.When you hit the limit dont trade for the rest of the month. Cool Off ,re-evaluate your method and the markets.
Dont double virginal ignorance with greed. Trading the above way reduces the excitment of trading but enhances profit potential. Which of the two do you Desire ? YOU Choose !
...

Trading sweet spots

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Posted by : sainik at 00: 00 (17th Nov 04)

as a trader, especially in the futures and options one is continuosly looking for the "right " period to trade. here are some observations. for the past year or so, the market is exhibiting a discernible pattern. the beginning of the derivative settlement starts off subdued(friday and monday) and then takes off to peak sometime in the penultimate week (wednesday or thursday). then the market slides down uptil monday of the settlement week. it again picks up and closes strongly on the settlement day. so for this month, observe that while october 28 thursday, the closing was firm, october 29 friday, the market came down and opened sluggishly on monday novemeber 1. it was in the red for the first part of the session and then took off strongly. now we are in the penultimate week. should the market begin to come down beginning today or tomorrow, it should last till monday. monday , 22 november should be a good time to buy. this pattern has been different last december when there was no respite to the bullishness.the market did not exhibit any significant correction at all during that month. however, even if u missed the minor correction , one could have still bought on that monday and made money!!!. recently in july , the correction happened on tuesday and wednesday of the ENDING week, so if u had bought on monday, u would have got a mild heart attack on those two days but would have been smiling by the settlement day.!!!!! in conclusion, the odds favour the buyer in the last week and the seller in the penultimate week of the derivatives settlement. please remember, there is no magic formula in the market. as soon as one identifies a pattern, the pattern changes !!!!!. however, one should not be surprised if the market exhibits a similar pattern this month too. final disclaimer : please trade with caution. ...

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Posted by : faber101 at 12:25 (27th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message

reflexive - enough of preaching . Give some investment ideas , then talk . it is keep remembering of others great deed , what are u doing [Sensex:6749.65 Nifty:2096.65]

Current Rating : Not Rated

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Posted by : Reflexive at 12:35 (27th May '05) in reply to faber101 | message

Is it so difficult to gripe for fairness without the crutch of a neo id, rather than your main id?

When i have an idea i want to share, i'll do. We live in a free country. I speak of my own free will.Moreover it is the concepts that interest me.

[Sensex:6751.7 Nifty:2094.15]
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Posted by : faber101 at 13:32 (27th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message


of course, the concept can be preached for a life time. Will make a good teacher in some history or accountancy class. The best money you can hope to make is getting the salary for teaching Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha ROFL. [Sensex:6738.85 Nifty:2091.65]

Current Rating : Not Rated

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Suggestions requested

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Posted by : kamalendu at 19:20 (26th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message


:-) Geez everything is subjective in life. But theres a smart point in the whole discussion and my take is: I will keep looking at my compounding interest theory but have to look out for putting some long term bets, maybe with small money, but a view of how VC would invest into a company - cause that is how networth grows; In good long horizon bets that reap the millions. Thanks Buddy, it gave me a different interpretation view. [Sensex:6670.78 Nifty:2074.7]

Current Rating : Not Rated

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Posted by : Reflexive at 12:17 (28th May '05) in reply to kamalendu | message

You shouldn't be betting your ranch on steel to remain firm. If i were you, i would still play steel, but,..on the short side

Don't take ego where your money is. [Sensex:6707.72 Nifty:2076.4]

Current Rating : Not Rated
...

tomorrow is clear right?, May be add 150 or 200 points to nifty, and then check for day after tomorrow, consider having 200 points plus for DOW also......

From August 2007 to Dec 2007 , The markets were witnessed the strong bull run, even one day if it loses 200 points next day it will catch up 300 points.so always the settlement looks strongest. This year too, normally atleast in the settlement day or two days it's not crahsed. but on august we thought it will not crash and buyed calls only to see the markets slided 80 points.. from then it picked up, so there is no such a clear trend like it will do this in first week and it will do this in settlement week. Traders should take caution and play all the time, No pattern is patent for the market...lol ...

RN, You only read and learned TA ? or did you learned any other charting techniques also? can't we ignore guests...if they shout against Mountains for the whom the energy loss...? ...

track ignore Posted by : faber101 at 12:25 (27th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message reflexive - enough of preaching . Give some investment ideas , then talk . it is keep remembering of others great deed , what are u doing [Sensex:6749.65 Nifty:2096.65] Current Rating : Not Rated ------------------------------------------ track ignore Posted by : Reflexive at 12:35 (27th May '05) in reply to faber101 | message Is it so difficult to gripe for fairness without the crutch of a neo id, rather than your main id? When i have an idea i want to share, i'll do. We live in a free country. I speak of my own free will.Moreover it is the concepts that interest me. [Sensex:6751.7 Nifty:2094.15] ------------------------------------- track ignore Posted by : faber101 at 13:32 (27th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message of course, the concept can be preached for a life time. Will make a good teacher in some history or accountancy class. The best money you can hope to make is getting the salary for teaching Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha ROFL. [Sensex:6738.85 Nifty:2091.65] Current Rating : Not Rated ------------------------------------------- Suggestions requested track ignore Posted by : kamalendu at 19:20 (26th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message :-) Geez everything is subjective in life. But theres a smart point in the whole discussion and my take is: I will keep looking at my compounding interest theory but have to look out for putting some long term bets, maybe with small money, but a view of how VC would invest into a company - cause that is how networth grows; In good long horizon bets that reap the millions. Thanks Buddy, it gave me a different interpretation view. [Sensex:6670.78 Nifty:2074.7] Current Rating : Not Rated ------------------------------------------ track ignore Posted by : Reflexive at 12:17 (28th May '05) in reply to kamalendu | message You shouldn't be betting your ranch on steel to remain firm. If i were you, i would still play steel, but,..on the short side Don't take ego where your money is. [Sensex:6707.72 Nifty:2076.4] Current Rating : Not Rated ...

Size is the anchor of performance track ignore Posted by : Reflexive at 11:47 (27th May '05) in reply to equitysurgeon | message There in lies the difference of opinion. 1. Please do not club RJ & RD. There's a difference of atleast a factor of 10. And that's no small difference. RJ has had big, big quantum wins. He's made money through shrewd long term investments. Karur Vyasya Bank which he first bought in '92-93 and still holds has given him 90 times the initial capital and he's still not sold it.BEML which he started investing at 20-25, has given him 50 times. He has won quantum profits not pennies. All the others, including RD buy and sell, buy and sell and keep paying transaction costs & taxes rather than let the wealth compound. Real compounding to increase networth is an art very few practice. RJ is a rarity. 2. I gave a ballpark estimate for Walter Schloss's returns. Infact the guy has almost as long a track record as Warren Buffett, going to 40 years with similar long term returns, since both used to work for Benjamin Graham and left the firm almost together. The difference between them was not the initial capital. The difference between them was not the fact that Warren Buffett used Insurance business to grow his investments. The difference is..... in the fact that Warren Buffett's investment style allows him to invest progressively greater amounts of capital without reducing his returns. He buys businesses, healthy big successful businesses, where large amounts of capital can be deployed. Thats where he could deploy the humungous insurance float of his Property Casualty insurance companies. Walter bought undervalued assets. Asset plays. He bought these cigar butt bargains whose market cap is usually always very small and therefore one cannot deploy large amounts of capital in them. That's why at the end of each year's great compounding effort Walter had to give away part of the profits back to the investors so that he could reduce the size to manageable limits. For all his compounding prowess, it did not enable him to maintain his ROE as size increased. Size was the anchor of his performance. 3. Why do you think George Soros' quantum fund (The most famous fund), Jim Simons Renaissance fund (The best peforming Hedge fund in the world with 40% compounded annual returns over 18 yrs) have restrictred their fund's maximum size to less than 15 B$ , even though they can grow Assets under Management to many multiples of that. Its because all their systems/edges fail as size increases. They cannot allocated capital as efficiently with increased size without losing on % returns.And it has nothing to do with emotional discipline or money management. Size is the anchor of performance as Warren Buffett has often said. And his edge allows him to keep earning significantly greater returns even with more assets. All the money management, position sizing, leverage, discipline could not enable George Soros or Bruce Kovner or Paul Tudor Jones or Stanley Druckenmiller (All Billionaires, mind you) to maintain their returns with increased size. They hit their ceiling. Why do you think Fidelity's famed Peter Lynch Magellan fund is in such trouble. Again size became its anchor. It has underperformed the leading over the last 5 yrs. And overcoming that constraint requries an edge,a system that can circumvent it, to deliver consistent performance. Investment/Trading/Speculating style makes all the difference in this world. [Sensex:6742.88 Nifty:2092.25] Current Rating : Not Rated ...

track ignore Posted by : columbus at 19:58 (26th May '05) in reply to equitysurgeon | message Dear ES, Both require Large amounts of money. Investor need it because he locks the capital for 2 or 3 years.Trader needs it because he is a volume player. Cheers. [Sensex:6670.78 Nifty:2074.7] Current Rating : Not Rated ------------------------------------ track ignore Posted by : equitysurgeon at 20:01 (26th May '05) in reply to columbus | message hi columbus, most of the small investors are not blessed to have large capital. They can start investing even with Rs 1000, in a SIP of a mutual fund as long as, he doesnot need it for 3-5 years. regards.ES [Sensex:6670.78 Nifty:2074.7] Current Rating : Not Rated ---------------------------------------------- track ignore Posted by : columbus at 20:14 (26th May '05) in reply to equitysurgeon | message Dear ES, Perhaps 1 or 2 Lakhs is an ideal amount to build a good portfolio to start with. Do not look at Stock quotes until unless one has good amount which is going to be idle for few years. An amount which is too LOW makes the brokerage too BIG,although in percentage terms it is the same. Cheers. [Sensex:6670.78 Nifty:2074.7] ----------------------------------------------- Current Rating : Not Rated...

track ignore Posted by : equitysurgeon at 19:48 (26th May '05) in reply to Reflexive | message Do make a Difference between Trading and Investing. Trading requires adequate capital. Investing can be done with any amount. Reason for over leveraging is often, a small trading capital. ES [Sensex:6670.78 Nifty:2074.7] Current Rating : Not Rated ...