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Market Analysis - Technical View
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nifty down 6.7% but feels like market down by 20%....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by :
sam_pd
chalo ek bar phir se lower circuit ke taraf chale. 
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Expect World War in 1-2 years` time....
In reply to:
Expect another large fall today: Mohoni
Posted by : MMB Messenger
European markets fell again last night, while the US indices went into free fall after a positive start. Asian markets are down very heavily this morning, and the global sell-off is showing no signs of ending. We can expect another large fall today as a result.
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RN, HLN`s calls are in both directions. I had subscribed to his paid services and ended up losing all the amount i had kept for investment by following his Options predictions. And he changes his predictions 180 degrees once there are 4-5 continuous errors with his calls...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Vam,
HLN proved himself right but inbetween he gave some bullish calls too just after which the Nifty ticked down. I dont know what the basis of those bullish calls were since he does not acknowledge his mistakes. But one cannot play options from his calls coz the premium undergo decay due to both volatility and time, at best one could have pared their exposure in equities following his call.
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chalo ek bar phir se lower circuit ke taraf chale....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
in range 3113 was not that far on nifty ,downward impulse wave is almost over, my 25% buying is over, time to wait and watch.
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The markets seem to have bottomed out today, after exactly 9 months of the BSE sensex touching a record level of 21207 on 10th January 2008. It will be in a consolidation phase for now, and is likely to make higher consecutive bottoms over the period of next few weeks. However, it will take another 9 months for the start of another bull run on Indian bourses....
In reply to:
Expect another large fall today: Mohoni
Posted by : MMB Messenger
European markets fell again last night, while the US indices went into free fall after a positive start. Asian markets are down very heavily this morning, and the global sell-off is showing no signs of ending. We can expect another large fall today as a result.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
European markets fell again last night, while the US indices went into free fall after a positive start. Asian markets are down very heavily this morning, and the global sell-off is showing no signs of ending. We can expect another large fall today as a result....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dirty float :
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A floating security whose value is not solely determined by free market supply and demand pressures but also by interventions of the concerned authorities.
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TC-101008-S-01...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Leasing finance :
A method of acquiring business equipment without capital outlay. the bank or finance company buys the equipment and leases it to the customer, in return for regular rental payments for the duration of the lease period.
TC-071008-S-01
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Top Sensex Losers - Icici Down 14.44 Pct, Jaiprakash Associates Down 10.8 Pct, Reliance Comm Down 10.25 Pct...
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Nifty oct future stop loss breached...
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Buy Nifty Oct fut 3385 Tgt .......... Sl 3362...
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Technically Bse Sensex is expected to hit the level of 7700 with a support levels at 10695 / 9800 / 8800...Please investors stay away from the market as this pull back might be a trap........
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200 more points at sensex fall are expected.. Nifty look strong and will not touch below 3250
...
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Watch Bank stocks now as they will shoot to another high Level.
Its time to BUY in Banks stocks.
...
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RN,
Tomorrow the CRR will be cut by 150 basis points..so markets are moving up
Time to buy some calls...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
And shankar said for the longeterm investor
THE TRADE IS NOT EQUITIES ITS ELSEWHERE
But he did a 180 degree turn recently so his calls could just be hot air proving itself coincidentally right. LOL Had he stuck to his call we should have called it foresight but he changed his views 180 degrees recently.
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Sensex Technical View :
Technically Sensex is making lows almost lower to the channel support and on a simple terms yes its highly oversold but still bearish. Now lets try to simplify it through some technical points .
1) 30 % dip
January the panic month saw a dip of 27.7 % . In July markets fell around 29.4% at 12500. Now in October we have made a low of 10750 which is almost 31 % . So as per previous observation the markets have already fallen as before and a very sharp corrective bounce should be round the corner.
2) Channel and Trendlines.
As we see in the chart there are two lines taking different points. One comes to around 11200-11500 and other at 10500. Also on Dollex charts indices are very close to the support line. Technically markets have not closed below this line even in major panics. If it closes below 10500 then the only sensible technical level is 9700.
3) Indicators
RSI , MACD and many other indicators are almost close to Jan levels which had seen lower ckts. In such a scenario it can be said that markets are getting into highly oversold panic levels.After such a panic scenario the bounce back could be very sharp.
4) Fibonacci Levels
The important fibonacci levels for the entire bull run is at 11900 and 9700 out of which 11900 is broken and implies we may very well head towards 9700 as the next major stop and the most important level for a change of structural long term bull market is 8799 which is a decider over next whole year.
After taking a clear exit calls at 18900/17500/16700/16100 we have been going with a strategy of buying in declines to sell on corrective bear rallies. Earlier we bought at 14k-12.5k to get back to cash at 15k +. Right now the decision to start buying slowly frm 12.5k to 11k seems we had started a bit earlier and only thing which gives a lil comfort is 50-60 % exposure taken and rest cash be kept on hold which should now wait only and let markets stabilize. Lots of stocks might have corrected 20 % lower from starting prices or quoting at those levels below acquisition price.
Technically all indicators, analysis points to an end of the correction at 10500-11200 but at the same time few days back it seemed 11200-11900 should hold so cant really say whether we will stop at 10740 or not but it seems 9700 zone is the most important zone as its the 61 % correction to watch in case there is a whole round panic coming over in global and indian indices.
Earlier in my previous post about the Big debate where in it was presented that 11900 or 9700 which could be the bottom zone for the market. My assumption that Sept/Oct may see an economic peak does seem to be right but the extent of it and the panic which i expected could take us to 11900 + - few hundred points seems to has gone wrong as the panic seen in markets has been much much more then i expected. So the debate seems to have turned in favour of 9700 !!!
Here in another attached view which i had was even if we have to go to 9700 the technical implication would be a low around 11900-11200 which would be 30 % dip and then a bounce of 20-24 % which may take us to 13500 and then we may see whether market breaks the low made around 11200-11900 and then we may take a call whether markets are headed for 9700 odd or not . So technically if we break the low around 10740 or say 10500 in coming days then we could very well head to 9700 odd levels. Also 8799 is the level which should hold over any panic and I HAVE pure belief that we are not going below coz thats a major level for the INDIA STORY which is still the best over next 3-5 -8 years....
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Udayan's Market Outlook
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Markets to be volatile yet flat today | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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