dear harish,

Quote:have seen the index of 21000 only because of US inflows mainly.

Unquote:

1)First of all that level was unacceptable which has squeezed the money from many gullible retail investors.

2)Taking the sensex to unacceptable levels by price rigging is not an achievement nor desirable for the overall health of any market.

3)Indicies should move in line with GDP expansion.Otherwise the paper money created will disappear in no time resulting in many traps and systemic failures.

Quote:We as a domestic investors are still not capable of taking our markets so high .......you too shall agree.

Unquote:Taking the sensex to unnatural levels is not a capability.It is the exploitation of the gaps in the system for the benefit of select few.

regards...

dear chchch,

Thanks for your kind words.

regards...

dear sunil,

1)If ICICI bank is doing fine, why did they increase minimum balance for savings account from Rs.5000/- to Rs.1000/-( pls remember that fine in failing to maintain that minimum balance is really high at Rs.700/- levels)?

Are you aware that fine was just Rs.50/- in the year 2001 and then was increased to some Rs.300/- plus levels in 2003 and later to Rs.700/- levels in the same year?

In 2001 ICICI bank was quite small compared to present levels.To my knowledge economies of scale helps any organization cut prices on their services and why has it been the other way round in the case of ICICI?, had every thing been fine!

2)Regarding DLF and others in realty space: Realty prices in India went up to such levels which seem to be on par or costlier than those countries which have 50 to 60 times per capita income compared to India...

To what extent do you think the prices can go up without resulting in any demand destruction?

Allready the present rentals are making many businesses particularly the smaller ones commercially unviable.Do you have any idea that any further upside movement in realty prices will result in businesses becoming commercially unviable making the entire economy collapse?

And higher rentals and higher unit prices, made many residential properties of organized realty sector unaffordable , are resulting in severe crisis for realty companies.

If that is the case.. how do you think investment in counters like DLF will fetch very good returns when there are many other sectors and counters which are yet to witness growth and far from reaching maturity stage in their business cycles?

3)Regarding IT sector in general and TCS in specific:

First let us look at the root causes of the problems in US.

Many barrowers failed to repay their loans.

But why they defaulted? It was b`coz they didnt have jobs.

But why didnt they have jobs?It was b`coz of outsourcing.

So to survive from the present crisis, US has to stop encouraging any further outsourcing and should take measures to reverse outsourcing( already plans are very much on cards).So to do that they will let Dollar fall to very lower levels.

When that happens..it will be a double whammy for Indian IT companies.

First one is .. there wont be endless amounts of linear growth which they witnessed in the past.

Second one is..shrinking of NPMs.

In such scenarios, i fail to understand how can one make any profits by investing in TCS or Infy!

regards...

dear BSR,

Quote: Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less?

Unquote: I dont know about the stories.. i know only about my calculated analyses.

I have a very clear picture in mind how the macros affect the growth and how the impacted growth will affect the movement of indicies.

And during this kind of bearish phase,first the economy should stabilize( read as growth).During that phase, the bad sentiments and the liquidity crunch will make indicies move slower than the actual ecomomic growth before forming a base for next bull run.

Quote:However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD!

Unquote:The projected target price of 200 USD per barrel was a speculated one(Not a fundamental one as the excessive demand than supply).

Whether such speculated targets will ever be met or not depends on

1) The ability of the speculators to take it there.

2) And the real intensions of speculators whether they really want to take it to that level or not.

Now the real question is not about crude price reaching that level. Instead how long the crude price was maintained at a level which is beyond the bearable level for our country. In fact for almost 6 months it was at higher levels which made all the fiscal plans awry.

Quote:Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better!

Unquote:At present markets are at fair levels.There is only one group that creates excesses in the markets...US based investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors.But they are handicapped right now.

DIIs, sovereign funds, Indian retail investors never create excesses in the over all markets( except stray incidents like some promoter groups and few HNIs playing with some small caps).If at all DIIS and sovereign funds create excesses, they bankrupt like their western counterparts.

Quote:As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given!

Unquote:I dont know about BS reasons, but i have been telling this since July 2008 when i was convinced about the disturbed macro fundamentals.

From purely fundamental perspective, i said( in July 2008) 15600-15800 will act as cap for the month of August 2008.

For me, the next cap for the month of Nov 2008 was 16100 which i had in mind before the Lehman`s filing for bankruptcy.So i was forced to relook at the upside cap after the Lehman`s incident.I was expecting those bankruptcy incidents to take place after Nov 2008.

And pls dont confused that the projected upside cap as the projected target.

regards...

dear hln,

Pls dont compare the corrections in periods between Jan2004 to May 2004 and between May 2006 to June 2006 with the present crisis.

1)Markets excesses in terms of higher valuations were very limited in those preceeding rallies.

2)There was absolutely no liquidity crisis during those periods.The present liquidity crisis is second only to great depression in 1929.

3)There was no slow down fears in 2004 and 2006.

4)Indian economy`s growth engines IT and Realty were in full swing at that time and these two sectors are now on the verge of entering in to deep troubles with no foreseeable respite in the near future.

5)Next growth engine of Indian economy is going to be the spending on infrastructural facilities.But the mounting fiscal deficit is going to play spoiltsport and force the govt to defer spending on infrastructure.

Pls remember that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage.For strange reasons govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years and nothing can be done in this area over night.

6)And the rapid drying up of liquidity will be another problem for the core economy.

7)post dotcom bust (8 years back), Markets were in dull phase till 2003.The present crisis by any means is more severe than that.

Expecting any sustainable rally before 2010 can safely be ruled out.

But yes.. after that one will see the mother of all rallies which India Inc witnessed so far ,taking the sensex to unforeseen levels by 2016 with one major correction in the intermediate period.

That would be the life time opportunity for any active market participant to mint money.

regards

PS: The only relief in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project....

dear aby,

Current prices are more realistic from a fundamental perspective.

It is the limited freefloat which is used to rig the prices which creates an impression that wealth expansion is taking place.When ever prices reach such higher levels, even a sell off of 2 or 3% of the equity will result in collapse of the markets.

During this kind of situations, as many active investors run short of money, though valuations reach realistic levels, any sizeable sell off by institutional players creates demand side vacuum and a momentary infinte supply which will lead to excessive compression on the valuation front.

Just like the excesses generated by higher liquidity dont last long, the lower side excesses which are a result of the liquidiy squeeze from the system never last long.

So before stabilizing at rational levels, markets are bound to see some excesses on the downside.

But present levels are acceptable levels from a fundamental perspective for the sensex though individual stocks may have different valuations.Some may still be expensive and some may be cheaper..

regards...

sorry wbuffett..there is a correction

Pls read the sentence as

If you dont mind me butting in, let me tell you that economy wont slip in to depression or recession.

regards ...

it may take a little time but sure icici bank will be a penny stock and it is next gtb.. icici has lot of debt and the bonds in which they invested in lehman through icici uk is totally gone so no chance that they hide it..one or the other day sure its a penny stock.....

Dear novice1000, Thank you again for taking time out and providing those valuable inputs. :) Let us see how GAME pan out going ahead! Just for info: If Sensex goes below 8800 or Nifty goes below 2600, then ppl should forget about any recovery in Indian STOCK market for a few months until those BS Big PLAYers are over with their BUYing or over with their BS stories! :) For DOW, 7400 is the equivalent long term support! If we look at all those 3 indexes, then we are close to LONG Term support for them all. That is why, I believe that within 3 months, many stocks should be available at very DIRT Cheap prices. Ppl should do their HOMEWORK before putting any FRESH investments into the market! Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

Dear Novice1000, You are taking the whole issue in a different perception altogether.I do understand your view that this can be an exploitation of the Gaps in the system.Touch your heart and answer the following in plain YES or NO.... 1) were you not happy when the sensex touched 21000....? 2) Have you lost more money than you made in this Bull run.......? 3) Does stock markets really move in line with the GDP expansion.....? 4) Does in the Bull run there is no scope for speculation...? 5) Are we really capable of taking our market so high....? if all your answers are NO than you have got the right answer........problem is in the Market Exit is more Important than the Entry is .........we Need to be an Arjun as Abhimanyu is just half educated. Market is the master and we are just student who learns everyday.. with regds harish sharma...

Yesteday when huge selling was happening, Mr.C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA told the news man which appeared in the boarder that the market won\`t fall below 10000 levels. Exactly it happend and stayed above. But he continued to see further fall if mutual funds atars redemption.If it happens from Indian Mutual funds then the market may move to 9000 levles which will be holding the bottom space.He is so positive on Reliance shares.He see the RPL +ve if falling continues too.He was the one first said the RPL will cross Essaroil soon, it happend. In the coming bounces you may see the RPL crosses Cairn buy december 2009 and stand above 350 Rs.......

novice1000, Good message, especially - (a) that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage and,for strange reasons, govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years; and (b) that the relief ( I believe a major one) in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project. ...

I would request all the boarders not to miss see the video h t t p : / / video(.)google(.)com/videoplay?docid=-594683847743189197...

Dear novice1000, Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less? I just check that Crude is DOWN below 80 USD now! :) Obviously, that may not stay there for long! :) However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD! :) Inflation is DOWN and is expected to be in Single Digit during next year unless some GAME again is PLAYed somewhere. Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better! :) Remember: Some long only funds registered as BS FIIs have not started their SHOPPing yet! :) As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given! Recent example is that of oil! :) Gud luk & happy investing! :)...