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Market Analysis - Technical View
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Folks,
I said DOW JONES is oversold last week and is a BUY per RSI, the rally happened ystday lol.. now i am telling you there is nothing bullish about the Dow with yesterday`s close, the NYSE TRIN is infact oversold at 2.5. They sold into the rally ystday which is not a bullish sign considering the enormous rally.
If you assume the oversold TRIN reflect shorts its not a very bullish sign. But if it was profit booking by those who bought the DOW last week i.e. thursday and friday when TRIN was overbought then its not so bearish.
Our NIFTY TRIN though is a healthy overbought at 0.4 and in keeping with the rally.
Else all other indicators for all indices bearish. I am not checking crude these days.
The oversold TRIN may take a day to play out just as the overbought TRIN took a weekend to play out. But this kind of prediction is no rocket science. Anyone will agree that when it rallies so much, profit booking is but natural. However this simple logic is reflected in technicals too. LOL...
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Lalit,
Who is bubbuni? lol...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by :
Lalitdeshpandey
All are invited to contibute on my next thread, " WHAT CAN BE THE NEXT TOP for Sensex-Nifty?????" 
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sebi will not ban on short selling at any time because political people are getting more profits in short selling and lots of stock has come to bottom level that because of short selling and political people are one of the major reason for more volatality and unsteady condition of market...
In reply to:
short selling has to banned
Posted by :
vms740
I too shared this opinion in my message but why the regulators are sleeping but too late now
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sensex will touch above 15000 within year end...
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You will witness a rapid upward correction in stock markets the world over, Government`s worldover are not fond of losing out for long!
Unlike the previous though interesting time-periods of Bull & Bear phases that you well noted, this `Sacred scare of 2008` is much different...it seems more psychological feeding on fear & panic than a subprime or financials of 3 Quaters. Governments have intervened, and together. Powers that be too are invested in the bull run and the bad blood of those financial institutions had a reaon to be were weaned, or allowed to belly-up as also encouraged in the pwerful instituttions allowed merged with each other. shake ups of this sort with ALL international Govts concertedly intervening, will ease the monetary & fiscal situations faster than one estimated...the bull run will be back faster than even the Govts or `financial experts` estimate. The sade paret though is that in the coming out of any such crisis, the rich will get richer, and the gullible invested poorer. Stay put and `wait-out the bout!`...
In reply to:
The Big Debate....................
Posted by : Nooresh
The above levels are the biggest debate between all types of technical analysts be it Elliot, Classical, Wave or whatever.
Although I am mainly stock specific so prefer to go with the Classical patterns but do tend to have a look into various theories for index calculations.
Now let’s see the points of debate based on primary assumptions of technical analysis.
1) Bullish or Bearish in the long term.
2) Historical Comparisons.
3) Time Period.
4) Price Target.
5) Miscellaneous Observations
6) Observations and Conclusions.
1) Bullish or Bearish
There is hardly any technical analysis theory or analyst who would give a 6k Sensex and 2k Nifty target and consider the indices to be in a major bear trend and we may not go above 21k in the coming decade and continue to be in a range of 6k-21k as we did in 1990-2000.
Majority of the technical theories and analysts continue to maintain that Sensex is in a long term bull market and may knock new highs in the next decade or say 3-5 years.
2) Historical Comparisons.
Let’s start with bear markets in India.
Although there is no hard and fast rule about what could be termed a bear markets. I would consider any fall of 20-50 % from peak in absolute terms and spans for more then 5 months to 2-3 years.
I have still not understood why every analyst thinks it was only 2000 to 2003 was the only bear market but that could be because all have been tracking Nifty only which started in 1994.
Sensex corrected 40 % in 1986 -1988, 1991, 1992-1993. The important one would be 1986-1988 and 1992-1993 as they lasted for more then 8-13 months and can be used for the comparisons.
Although if one is looking at a structural bull market then the most important one to be considered would be the 1986-1988 bear phase. As this goes well with the multi-year breakout which happened in 2005.
Comparing current bear market phase to 1992-1993 and 2000-2003 Sensex has one concern that during the period of 1990-2003 Sensex continued to range between 2k-6k. And all through after a bull run market ended up touching the lower side range of 2k. So in such a comparison it would imply a testing of the breakout of 6k in 2005 for current index and then make a new range of 6k-21k which may last for another decade ??? !.So definitely there are questions on both sides whether to consider 1992-1993 , 2000-2003 or consider the 1986-1988 corrections.
Charts for reference:
Sensex 1986-1988 correction
Sensex 1992-1993 correction
Sensex 2000-2003 correction.
USA – Dow Jones
This is the oldest available index in the world and also the biggest economy so it makes sense to compare a highly mature market for any part of technical analysis.
Here again the structural bull runs were seen in 1930s and 1980s. So 1937-1942 and 1987 would be important ones to watch for comparison as these corrections led to the major bull rallies. I have been comparing the US economic scenario of 1980s to India of 2000s. And the pattern of multi-year breakout seems to be very similar on both cases. Have extensively included the same in our come look into the future presentation.
Also one more observation is that October is a Bear Killer month for Dow Jones. According to the Stock Traders Almanac (which is the authority on seasonal trends), October crashes took place during 1929 and 1987. October downturns also took place in 1978, 1979, 1989, and 1997. October, however, is also known as a "bear killer". Bear markets ended during October in 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2002. Charts 2, 3, and 4 show October bottoms in 1987, 1998, and 2002. October also saw big gains after bad Septembers in the five years from 1999-2003. We have to consider October month importantly as US backed recession is leading to financial crisis all over the world.
for more search Nooresh on google....
All are invited to contibute on my next thread, " WHAT CAN BE THE NEXT TOP for Sensex-Nifty?????"...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
I could find one message here......
Lalitdeshpandey on ( 07-Oct-08 04:46 )
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT.
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dear novice1000,
How can you know good calls??
people rating messages have tendency to rate messages on choose and pick method... Near and dear , mine and others, groups and syndicates has caused lot of damage to this board and investors.
You are not withing that clutch and that shows in your reply.
Thanks,...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by :
novice1000
dear lalit,
Great call.. i should say.Just now i saw it.. but i appreicate it.
regards
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Dear sriman35,
Thats good. Fund is owned then we have some peace of mind!
I do have fresh pumping on Friday and happy to hev huge kind
of profits. Calls of Nifty are 120 to 135 % up today.
Yes your was opinion and not a querry. However, unill Friday lows are not broken, Opinion shall be treated as ," backed with reality!!!!".
Take care. US and G-6 countries are trying hard to tam inflation and slow down. here analusts having stress on two things, Spending which is turmed as basic param of Economic growth. Seconf yard stick is Jobless counts!!! This can be the last month for both to come out of slugish front. Lot of encouragements are now provided on your spendings here.
secondly, Hopefully, jobless calims are likely to fall down drstically from next months. this is what analyst and economist opine....
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Sriman35
Hi desh pandey,
Mine is not a query but an opinion. Sure we will see whose opinon is more nearer in the coming months.
bty... I am fully invested in stock market and looking out for avenues to invest more. (PS: not on borrowed money)
Regards,
Sri
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Dear Friend,
I do not want to take credit on my postings of Friday.
it were solely based on the views of Kotak Investments.
S Kotak Of Kotak Investment posted his views as under:
" WHAT LOWS FORMED ON FRIDAY MAY BE THE LOW FOR NEXT THREE MONTHS"
Now 52 week Low of SENEX IS 10239.76 formed on this Friday.
Nifty low of 52 week being 3198.95 also formed on This Friday only.
If you talk of todays, he is correct in his predictions. Time will tell how long he will stay on this Footage for correctly predicting 52 week lows. But at least today, you can not challenge him and may be , you will never get chance to challenge him so far as his NIFTY-SENSEX PREDICTUONS ARE CONCERNED.....
However, we are concerned with pin pointing the market trend for our trades. It carries very meagre maening for arguing!!!!!!!!...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT.
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Hi desh pandey,
Mine is not a query but an opinion. Sure we will see whose opinon is more nearer in the coming months.
bty... I am fully invested in stock market and looking out for avenues to invest more. (PS: not on borrowed money)
Regards,
Sri
...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear sriman35,
Let the TIME shall reply your querry.....
Alternatively, one can stay on the bank if having no faith in ones own judgements!
I do have in mine.
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Hi Vipulbhai,
JSK, Nice to read your reply..and you still remember my Excel Sheet.!!
Actually I have written "Various Custom Formulaes" in MetaStock Pro with various filters for daily / weekly / monthly and Qtrly and I was sending you the Output in Excel for easy reading !! I am still using it in a nos. of my trading systems ...
Those who have little sense will definately follow your advise as a broad guide post, even if he / she does not follow it blindly !! still they will be benefitted !!
yes, I fully agree with about UP Trend and my "personal views" are that it my last for some 8 to 12 weeks...but while Trading / Investing we always have to be prepared for "unexpected" and must have a built-in protections available for us...
"Eternal Vigilance is the Key to Profit"
Regards to all family members and LOVE TO KIDS...
warm regards,
Ajaybhai...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Ajaybhai,
Jai Shree Krishna to you.
Hope you are fine and healthy.
BUYING TIME IS ON.
From here onwards that is from 13 Oct 2008 to 17 Oct 2008 week onwards RISK TO REWARD ratio is in favour of BULLS.
Most probable week of turning and i am just amused to see many analysts SUDDENLY realising and remembering 1929 times !
BUY ANYTHING YOU LIKED LAST YEAR, especially GEMS which are yet to SHINE.
Remember the golden rule.Buy above-sell below opn with stoploss at open.
You were the only one who had put my theory in practical by excel software.
Market will IMPROVE NOW ONWARDS TOWARDS FEBRUARY 2009, evenif and inspite of everything .
wish you profits and peace of mind,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
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NYSE TRIN is oversold at 1.3 in this rally right now
NASDAQ TRIN is hold ur heart, oversold at 60 in this rally right now
CHECK AND CONFIRM PLEASE.
yes NASDAQ TRIN is a give away... careful with tech stocks tomrrow.
Or is there something wrong in my calculation? Or is there one odd tech stock there which is spoiling the party?
Anybody....
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dear lalit,
Great call.. i should say.Just now i saw it.. but i appreicate it.
regards...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear sriman35,
Let the TIME shall reply your querry.....
Alternatively, one can stay on the bank if having no faith in ones own judgements!
I do have in mine....
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Sriman35
Hi Lalit desh pandey,
It is possible that we may not see new lows for another 3 months. Have a look at the previous lows in 2008. Jan, Mar, Jul, Oct, ???.
In my personal opinion market will bottom out between Dec08 and Mar09. and then there will be few dull months (I prefer to call it as gestation period). Any recovery before that is just coz of covering shorts/technical rebound/suckers rally.
Regards,
Sri
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Hi Lalit desh pandey,
It is possible that we may not see new lows for another 3 months. Have a look at the previous lows in 2008. Jan, Mar, Jul, Oct, ???.
In my personal opinion market will bottom out between Dec08 and Mar09. and then there will be few dull months (I prefer to call it as gestation period). Any recovery before that is just coz of covering shorts/technical rebound/suckers rally.
Regards,
Sri...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Sriman35,
Ok.. I mis - Spelled earlier. Now corrected....
This is the data for Friday..
Sharad Kotak Of
Kotak Investment
Opines that WHAT LOW FORMED ON FRIDAY CAN BE THE LOW FOR NEXT THREE MONTHS..............
Sensex Low on FRIFAY 10-10-2008 is =10239.76
NIFTY Low on FRIDAY 10-10-2008 is = 3198.95
Now let us see what happens from Monday.....
Lalit
