Market Analysis - Technical View

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Lets ask oldtimer for the best straddle or stangle today.. considering we could slip 75 point this way or that and there is decent money to be made either way should we buy 4300 ce and 4300 puts in equal amounts?? If it closes flat god help... we lose all.. but i dont mind risking my profits for more profits.... i wouldnt advise that to someone who still has only his capital intact or even less.. LOL

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Bearcartel, mohanji, Samona, vam_aru, jadus...

The excel workbook has indications for various indices and also for NSE equities.

Only the last row of each file has formulae, so the file is less bulky to handle. Formulaes are very space consuming you see.

The 4300 CE August series is Rs 10 now and is very tempting considering that the 4200 CE for Augsut is quoting at Rs 70 for just a 75 point rise.. so if nifty rises 75 points then this should quote Rs 50 at least15 mins before close.. lol lol...should we buy, we lose little but can gain a lot.. FTSE may open mildly positive and we could spurt.. so lets wait until 12:15 check nifty and then buy.. but u have to risk losing all the premium.. game? I might buy them at 12:15, but dont follow coz i have been wrong several times.

28th July

Posted by : albenjoel

hi radhika , i wish to congragulate you first, i have tracking you for some time and you have really learned the language of traders. i wish to know one thing whats the brokerage charges you are paying for options trading, my broker charges 80rs per lot (minimum) for one side even if the the lot price is as low as 200rs,help me please

28th July

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear RN,

From the morning i bet on that started taking the Aug 4300 CE ( BUY ) I have 4 lots at 11 rs now.

Regards
Aru

28th July

Posted by : jadus

Hi radhika,
Thanks a lot for the file. I have down loaded the zip file, now I will have better understanding the formula from your blogs & be in a better position to under stand the technical indicators from the book. I wanted to know, do you rely only on excel sheet or compare it with any chart software?. Do you trade only in nifty or you use stocks or stocks future ?

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Bearcartel, mohanji, Samona, vam_aru, jadus...

The excel workbook has indications for various indices and also for NSE equities.

Only the last row of each file has formulae, so the file is less bulky to handle. Formulaes are very space consuming you see.

The 4300 CE August series is Rs 10 now and is very tempting considering that the 4200 CE for Augsut is quoting at Rs 70 for just a 75 point rise.. so if nifty rises 75 points then this should quote Rs 50 at least15 mins before close.. lol lol...should we buy, we lose little but can gain a lot.. FTSE may open mildly positive and we could spurt.. so lets wait until 12:15 check nifty and then buy.. but u have to risk losing all the premium.. game? I might buy them at 12:15, but dont follow coz i have been wrong several times.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

oops why am i always writing 5300 for 4300?? No wonder pranks calls me waydooh... absent minded... yes its 4300 of course...my excel sheet link with the latest data is on a blog

http: // ww w dot baankbihari dot blogspot dot com

The file is about 10.7 MB in size the zipped file itself and it takes 10 mins to download... so you need patience...

Some facts about the file in the next post...

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear nightowl,
Jai shree krishna.
Adani and mundra belong to same group- they have good FUTURE ahead - my view is HOLD and add more in any panic if at all panic happens, i very much doubt any BEARISH period as we are at CRUCIAL PROBABLE UPWARD BREAKOUT POINT.
I am from Gujarat , have little better idea about groups of Gujarat.
Your investments are good, just give them 2 to 3 years to yield results,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : nightowl

jai shree krishna,
could you also predict the future of my stocks like adani, godrej and mundra...
I TRULY PRAY THAT YOU ARE RIGHT,
NO

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,

My view based on my limited knowledge and experience of markets is,

We are at HISTORIC BREAKOUT probability point for - Stock market in INDIA -
We have seen in last five years fantastic returns on investment observed in many stocks in such a short timespan of 5 to 8 years- we had not even imagined such returns in our whole trading and investing life-

After such bull runs come period of sideways and down moves where stocks change hands -

we are in such down move since last 8 months Jan2008 being month of all time high top - how long this down move will last and when new upward breakout will happen is the most important issue in many minds today.

Technical view-
We are much below YEARLY open of year 2008 thus without doubt in a correction mode / sideways/ down move at present.
Fresh buying is just too scary if yearly outlook is considered.

Let us zoom in - quarterly outlook-
2008 First quarter Jan- Mar 08 was bearish candle
second quarter Apr - Jun 08 was also bearish candle
BUT July - Sep 08 is DEFINITELY BULLISH - we are above open of July 08 in many stocks thus it says - POSSIBILITY of FRESH UPMOVE is VERY MUCH THERE in the offing -
As a chartist , wait for sep 08 close for confirmation is best strategy at present.
If July- Sep 08 is doji with lower leg then a GOOD probability of OCT - DEC 08 Bullish candle resulting into quarterly morning star pattern will arise .

Zoom in further into monthly charts-
Chechout simple 3 month moving average of most leading stocks and you will find that for Sep 08 a bull candle above 3 month simple moving average showing bullish breakout is very EASY as 3 month moving average is very VULNERABLE / POISED for yielding in favour of bulls.

Weekly and daily chart suggest such breakout is JUST AROUND THE CORNER and countdown is already on for probable MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS,
Targets RIL 4500
Relcap 5000
RPL 480
RNRL 350
and many more for many other stocks.

Prepare yourselves for new top.

Experience says Operators are long , Morons are short.


Disclaimer-
I hold RNRL and RPL and plan to buy more any stock i like for investment- do your own homework before taking any decision - these are pure personal views - MANY FRIENDS KNOW their MEANING-

warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
This message is my ADVANCE return gift to you all friends and wellwishers as today-
Shitla saptami - vad saptami of shravan is my BIRTHDAY .
Born on a day before LORD Krishna- Jai Shree Krishna- Pranam to Elder friends- Love to younger friends- Jaadu ki zappi to all-
Wish you all profits and peace of mind.

27th July

Posted by : gv

Did you check the junk folder?
Some times it can go there
Any how i will resend,confirm once recd
Take care
GV