Market Outlook - Short Term

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear pkjattking,

For DOW, 7400 is the LONG TERM Support. So effectively, Dow in this range of 7400-8400 should result in DIRT Cheap prices for many stocks unless DOW would like to go for a TOSS! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear BSR,

Welcome back, i too expect the markets to stable around 2900 to 3000 levels , If there is any slight rallies in the coming week will be unfortunately will be sold off...

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear lovemeall26,

In my BS opinion, You have explained different situations correctly.

Just for info: I am SHORT on Nifty! :)

Over a longer time frame, I expect Nifty continue to come down and stablise under 3000 level unless DOW make some kind of immediate UPTREND above 10000 level.

You may find a bit SCARY to know what kind of level I am looking for building those LT investment portfolio. :) Just to give an idea: IFCI about 12-15 level, Nagarjuna around 12-14 level, Renuka around 18-22 level.

If I do not see those counters coming to my price level target, then I will PLAY as per PLAYers PLAYing the GAME!

This is like I will invest in a new home in real estate only when a flat of 1 crore CRASH to a price of 20 lakhs first and then will see the new developments / situtations! :)

I hope that clears some BS points as far as building those LT investments are concerned!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

:)

Your msg got truncated!


I was more interested to know this significance of \\`Matured\\`.. so far, ppl used to say bear and bull market... now come the interesting term matured!

just see dow now... is that a sign of matured bear market? :) :) Dow may surprise common ppl in October... just like those BS experts will say surprise results or better than expected results! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear pkjattking,

For DOW, 7400 is the LONG TERM Support. So effectively, Dow in this range of 7400-8400 should result in DIRT Cheap prices for many stocks unless DOW would like to go for a TOSS! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

Has your confidence in equities been shattered?

Posted by : iktikn

My portfolio is down 45%. Have I lost confidence in equities? No. The reason is simple. Equities provide the best returns if invested wisely. Panic selling is a result of fear as a result of which, the fear is turned into reality. But, this a good buying opportunity. The markets won`t be closed and the world will not come to an end. This means for the industry to function and for the economy to grow, equity markets are critical. So, the crisis has to be and will be resolved. If and when that happens, the markets will bounce back. But, we have to be intelligent enough to take advantage of this crisis to make profits. We obviously have to start buying and stagger our investments. In conclusion, equity markets will exist as long as the human race exists. If it ends, then we need not worry about the markets anymore. If it doesn`t, then we have nothing to worry. Either way we are at an advantage. :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pkjattking

By looking at the history of Dow for lasts 40 years ...its the months Sept and October where the tide turns.... 8000 for Dow has been a support for 40 years.....if we go below and sustain tha level.....only god knows where it will stop.....

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : novice1000

dear BSR,

Quote: Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less?

Unquote: I dont know about the stories.. i know only about my calculated analyses.

I have a very clear picture in mind how the macros affect the growth and how the impacted growth will affect the movement of indicies.

And during this kind of bearish phase,first the economy should stabilize( read as growth).During that phase, the bad sentiments and the liquidity crunch will make indicies move slower than the actual ecomomic growth before forming a base for next bull run.

Quote:However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD!

Unquote:The projected target price of 200 USD per barrel was a speculated one(Not a fundamental one as the excessive demand than supply).

Whether such speculated targets will ever be met or not depends on

1) The ability of the speculators to take it there.

2) And the real intensions of speculators whether they really want to take it to that level or not.

Now the real question is not about crude price reaching that level. Instead how long the crude price was maintained at a level which is beyond the bearable level for our country. In fact for almost 6 months it was at higher levels which made all the fiscal plans awry.

Quote:Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better!

Unquote:At present markets are at fair levels.There is only one group that creates excesses in the markets...US based investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors.But they are handicapped right now.

DIIs, sovereign funds, Indian retail investors never create excesses in the over all markets( except stray incidents like some promoter groups and few HNIs playing with some small caps).If at all DIIS and sovereign funds create excesses, they bankrupt like their western counterparts.

Quote:As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given!

Unquote:I dont know about BS reasons, but i have been telling this since July 2008 when i was convinced about the disturbed macro fundamentals.

From purely fundamental perspective, i said( in July 2008) 15600-15800 will act as cap for the month of August 2008.

For me, the next cap for the month of Nov 2008 was 16100 which i had in mind before the Lehman`s filing for bankruptcy.So i was forced to relook at the upside cap after the Lehman`s incident.I was expecting those bankruptcy incidents to take place after Nov 2008.

And pls dont confused that the projected upside cap as the projected target.

regards

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sanjay38000

i think market to rally at least 2000 points from monday and i hope the sensex to run upto nearly at 12600 ( high made in may 2006). than again it will slide

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sp.palo

Dear BSR,
do you follow TA or FA ?

regards
shakti

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello BSR,
Yes technically, we should have a nice bounceback as shortcovering comes to the fore,but that depends when the bears have had their fill and decide that enough is enough because the ball is now in their court and they are making the rules of the game. Yes this rally will be used by stuck up bulls to offload their long positions and when they withdraw their support to further go long, our markets may again sink to 3000 levels. There is increased uncertainty around the globe and the way the dow performed on friday, it was nothing short of a formula one race. I mean traders around the world including India are totally on roller coaster rides. But trading right now is also favouring the brave who do venture out into the killing fields.
take care
lovemeall26

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : mravi2008

Hi, It completed 2400 point correction as you predicted few days back, only thing it took more than 3 days! Great insight and prediction!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear HLN,

Whoever watched DOW closely on Friday would not have been forgot the Volatility in the near term, It has Moved 1000 Points ( 7883 to 8901 )if you take the Top and bottom, and still finished 180 points lower than thursday...

Let hope they have put a bottom at 7883 for good.. otherwise small investors will bleed...

No one is too big not to fall

Posted by : sambala

Why was it so desperate for cash? The company offers only the blandest reasons for its move, but investors were clearly worried that commercial paper was an important factor. Commercial paper is how corporations borrow for short periods, typically just a few days, for immediate purposes; it`s attractive because companies borrow only what they need, and interest rates are low. Lots of firms use commercial paper, frequently just for paying day-to-day bills, but no company uses it anything like GE. GE Capital alone has about $74 billion of commercial paper outstanding; the next largest player, J.P. Morgan, has about $47 billion. GE understood there was risk in relying so heavily on this source of funding but believed it was well prepared for any disruption through access to other sources, such as bank lines of credit.

On the morning of Oct. 1, the markets swirled with rumors that GE couldn`t roll over its commercial paper coming due. Like so much else that has happened in recent weeks, this possibility would have seemed outlandish just a month before; a spokesman insists the company has experienced no such problems. But in light of GE`s huge commercial paper obligations and the disruption of global credit markets, the rumors became just barely plausible. That`s when the stock suddenly dropped 10%, and the price of GE credit default swaps jumped. Regardless of how realistic the market`s fears were, the episode puts the Fed`s decision five days later to backstop the commercial paper market in a new light, as a signal of support for the commercial paper market`s biggest player.

What`s next?
Which leaves GE where? All the bad news in its recently lowered full-year profit forecast is in GE Capital; its profits should fall by 20% to 25% from last year`s. The other side of the company, the part most people think of when they think of GE, hasn`t shown signs of deterioration, at least not yet. Power turbines, locomotives, jet engines, CT scanners - the world still wants lots of those, and the profits they produce at GE are still rising strongly. Of course, should the financial crisis spark a widespread recession, virtually all of GE would suffer.

What`s not in doubt is that GE Capital will be changed profoundly by these events. Immelt has announced a goal of "resizing" GE Capital so that it accounts for just 40% of total GE earnings (down from 46% last year), but that may be making a virtue of necessity. It appears he`ll reach his goal next year with no problem whatever. The company`s big problem now is that investors just don`t know how the galloping financial crisis will affect GE. For example, the company holds some $53 billion of off-balance-sheet assets that are pieces of securitized debt, some of which are hooked to interest rate swaps with counterparties that are now troubled, such as ABN Amro, owned by Fortis and RBS Group. Individually, none of those is enough to cause a major problem. But investors are justifiably spooked by the poorly understood web of connections interlocking global financial firms, which have caused such havoc over the past month, and they`re unsure how GE might ultimately be affected.

Another example: GE Capital says that some of the debt it holds is extra-safe because it`s covered by credit insurance. But in today`s environment, how reliable are the credit insurers?

Investors worry also because GE Capital oversees one of the world`s largest commercial real estate portfolios. Tom Shapiro of GoldenTree InSite Partners, a real estate investment firm, says commercial property values have declined 10% to 20% in some regions and are still falling. In addition, GE`s portfolio includes residential-mortgage-backed securities, some with subprime exposure, for which there`s virtually no market now. More uncertainty for investors.

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