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Market Analysis - Technical View
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Last trading, US markets closed posting mixed gains and loss in DOW and Nasdaq respectively. Crude Oil remains under pressure through trading consistently below 112 dollars indicating further weakness to come in the day7s ahead . USD continues its relentless assault on the Euro and forces it to make another 6 month low last night. USD INR has also appreciated by a good 50 bps in the last 2-3 trading sessions and we believe 44.5-45 level could be a consolidating point and also a supply point as the RBI would not be liking it to appreciate beyond a certain point. Exporters will get happy by this but on the other hand importers wont be liking this as they will have to shell out more for the same product now. Across the world, oil refineries and importing companies have shed their market caps in recent sessions and so has happened in India. In India, luckily, due to falling rupee, refineries have been helped with their margins being sustained but the oil marketing companies have not got much relief as they have to shell out more dollars now for the same crude oil so as any dip in crude oil is being nulled by the falling rupee at present but technology shares will see a good relief from this tough environment and falling rupee scenario. So, one should carefully pick the stocks one wants to invest in it.
S&P CNX NIFTY
Close: 4504
The daily trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered.
If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 4,650. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 4,650. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 4,450 area.
Suggested standing placement of fail-safe stops...
If Long -- exit all contracts at ... 4,200
If Short -- exit all contracts at ... 4,650
One has to be with mixed bias on intraday basis with respect to prevailing trend; we do believe that 4450 and 4500 will provide a good support for today to the markets and on the upside only 4630-4650 is the resistance zone. Global Markets including equity and commodity today are trading in a very narrow range which will imply that markets will have to take cues domestically and on demand supply conditions.
I had recommended in my last article about Sun Pharma & United Phos. Sun Pharma gave very good upmove of 3% returns from the level recommended while United was rated as strong buy gave about 5% returns from the buy levels recommended. I congratulate to all friends who paid heed to this daily article.
I recommended GHCL and Indiabulls Real estate on Friday. Inspite of the volatility both stocks did extremely well with GHCL 5 % from the 82 levels recommended & Indiabulls real estate short call given at 293 and now trading at 261.
Stocks to watch out will be Axis Bank and Siemens.
-courtesy stox and more
...
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Bombay Dyeing
BHEL
Austral Coke
ONGC...
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The ADX says go LONG with daybefore data.. do check... at least in my excel.. MACD fast line is still below teh slow line, but massive uptick in MACD histo.. this 500 point rally has shifted the technicals in favor of bulls that only if there is a 150 point fall in nifty the momentum can change....
In reply to:
4th September
Posted by :
BearCartel
Hey RN thanks for the Update, is the adx supporting this uptrend ? cause in the charts adx not yet supporting... its snuck below +ve & -ve & as you said it means change of trend ? & macd fast still unable to crossover... 
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I have stopped taking SGX seriously ..Its overshoots both the sides most of the days..
Cheers...
In reply to:
2nd September
Posted by : vam_aru
SGX Nifty opened 63 points lower...
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Nifty Spot Support Resistance for 4th September.
Support 1 4484
Support 2 4450
Support 3 4405
Support 4 4365
Resistance 1 4537
Resistance 2 4555
Resistance 3 4650
Resistance 4 4680 - 4700...
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by :
billion@60
Nifty Spot Support Resistance for 2nd September.
Support 1 4298 - 4280
Support 2 4255 - 4248
Support 3 4220 - 4215
Pivot 4332
Resistance 1 4365 - 4382
Resistance 2 4415
Resistance 3 4465
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SGX Nifty opened 63 points lower......
In reply to:
2nd September
Posted by : eshers
Dear Googol,
I agree.. We should allocate some small amount everymonth and am sure atleast it will work twice in a year and that should compensate for the rest of the months too..
Cheers
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Hey RN thanks for the Update, is the adx supporting this uptrend ? cause in the charts adx not yet supporting... its snuck below +ve & -ve & as you said it means change of trend ? & macd fast still unable to crossover......
In reply to:
4th September
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
OUR NIFTY: Mixed siganls bordering on bullishness. The TRIN is once again oversold at greater than 1 which is concerning. Is it the NUKE deal or is it inflation that is causing this sell off in large caps? Every shortcovering rally is being sold into as per TRIN indciation. But even a 100 point fall in Nifty does not change the nifty technicals to bearish territory. The nifty indications apart from the TRIN are mostly bullish not bearish. I dont know about inflation adn nuke deal, if it fizzles out we could slide, else we are headed up and if indications are anything to go by bulls are in control as far as our Nifty goes. Besides its the US opposition parties that are spreading fear about the NUKE deal with India. The congress spokesman has said while we dont negotiate with fear we also dont fear to negotiate. LOL.. I would simply get out of my puts in view of such bullish cues. I have goofed up on my trades daybefore...dont follow me and burn ur pockets. This is just a view.
DOWJONES: VERY VERY bullish... it was bullish on Tuesday, bullish on wednesday. Do you know why dow dint fall ystady? Its RSI on tuesday close said BUY dow, thats why it retraced in the last hour of trade i guess. But the bull power and bear power dont favor bulls in dow.
CRUDE: Neutral to bullish, it has already fallen so much, i wonder if it can fall any further.
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nightowl,
With my excel i can feed imaginary data for the next one week and check nifty technicals.. with a chart at best you can draw a trend line connecting various price points but you cannot change the MACD ADX curves at your will... with my excel since there is a formulae the newer data can be autofilled to indicate...my excel should be patented.. lol.. i bet even alex may begin using it if he sees it....
In reply to:
2nd September
Posted by : nightowl
Rn
not being a techie, this has totally confused me... but i think what you are saying, in essence is, that there are mixed signals coming... i agree.. i would be very very careful if the nifty reches 4650... infact once it crosses 4600, if it does.. watch very carfully...
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Dear pradesh,
Thank you for the wishes.
Always book profit whenever at profit .
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...
In reply to:
10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL
Posted by : pradesh
Hi, First time writing to you. Happy birthday to you !!!!!!!!!
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OUR NIFTY: Mixed siganls bordering on bullishness. The TRIN is once again oversold at greater than 1 which is concerning. Is it the NUKE deal or is it inflation that is causing this sell off in large caps? Every shortcovering rally is being sold into as per TRIN indciation. But even a 100 point fall in Nifty does not change the nifty technicals to bearish territory. The nifty indications apart from the TRIN are mostly bullish not bearish. I dont know about inflation adn nuke deal, if it fizzles out we could slide, else we are headed up and if indications are anything to go by bulls are in control as far as our Nifty goes. Besides its the US opposition parties that are spreading fear about the NUKE deal with India. The congress spokesman has said while we dont negotiate with fear we also dont fear to negotiate. LOL.. I would simply get out of my puts in view of such bullish cues. I have goofed up on my trades daybefore...dont follow me and burn ur pockets. This is just a view.
DOWJONES: VERY VERY bullish... it was bullish on Tuesday, bullish on wednesday. Do you know why dow dint fall ystady? Its RSI on tuesday close said BUY dow, thats why it retraced in the last hour of trade i guess. But the bull power and bear power dont favor bulls in dow.
CRUDE: Neutral to bullish, it has already fallen so much, i wonder if it can fall any further....
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Dear Googol,
I agree.. We should allocate some small amount everymonth and am sure atleast it will work twice in a year and that should compensate for the rest of the months too..
Cheers...
In reply to:
2nd September
Posted by : googol
2
0309
Yes dear eshers,the overheads are very high,but still we make good money in case of a crash.
Cheers,
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Rn
not being a techie, this has totally confused me... but i think what you are saying, in essence is, that there are mixed signals coming... i agree.. i would be very very careful if the nifty reches 4650... infact once it crosses 4600, if it does.. watch very carfully... ...
In reply to:
2nd September
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
NIFTY: The MACD fast line is still below the slow line which is bearish and hence a SELL per my excel, but dont take that SELL literally, you see the MACD histo has ticked up and a MACD histo up tick is actually bullish BUT the ADX continues to tick down and thats bearish. While the bull power and bear power of ELDER RAY favor bulls, the TRIN is so oversold at 1.6, which means ystday's shortcovering rally was used to sell. Net net mixed cues so expect some dull volatility in a tight range...While shortcovering was going on ystday the selling was not apparent. I would maintain a bearish view on account of tick down in ADX and the bearish TRIN with tepid global cues. But not after noon. When FTSE opens i will go long coz dow is very bullish as mentioned in ystday's analysis. We however are closed tomorrow so a bullish dow TODAY will not mean much to us and besides and i cannot predict dow for wednesday coz i dont have today's cues yet. If Dow closes flat tomorrow and we carry ove our position to thursday it could be risky. So i would go long at lows and if there is a chance book profits i would book profits today. What do you all suggest? Anyone can share their views? Or its a soliloquy each morning here. LOL
Nothing to write about dow or crude USO which i track as their markets were closed ystday and my analysis given ystday is what i would keep in mind... let me check FNO cues.
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chal veena dont call me yaar... just call me ritts... but please please , please ... i request you... dont call me behenji,,, lols lols lols..
have a great day today ,tomorrow, and all the coming days
regards
rittu...
In reply to:
28th July
Posted by : MOKSHAG
nightowl,i feel hesitant to call yaar to a person whom i havent met yet and also i am not very extovert
any way,i feel very comfortable communicating with you
I am basically from zmindar family whereladies speak less or my grooming was so but am educated very well
Jagdish is enough for taking this job,thats why i am very less on board
bye n take care,happy ganesh chaturthi AUM GHUM GANESHAY NMAH
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nadhi sir,thanks for ur message,
my hubby has cemented his portfolio n not selling at all
I am resuffling mine n getting rid of weak stocks and doing investment in value stocks like ABB,SIEMENS,L&T,SBI,HDFC BANK,PRAJ,PUNJ and many more n has almost recoverred from 1st quarter mess but i am happy now n my investment is growing the way his is...
In reply to:
28th July
Posted by : nadhi
Dear MOKSHAG,
It is natural that only the successful ones say their story. Nobody likes to say their failures. You cant say it better when it comes to how people start to invest in stocks iwthout knowing anything but just going by what others said. The BULL market from 2003 to 2007 made many of them as genius.
I still feel that an 18-20 gain is a definite possibilty if one chooses the right ones and stay invested, if not more. LT investment is a a rare thing now. Time for the fast food and fast money.
Happy to know that your hubby had performed well and I wish you to have one more storey in the next few years.
regards
nadhi
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2nd September, 2008: Sensex (14498) & Nifty (4348)
Last trading, US markets were closed as they had Labor Day but Crude Oil showed a sharp decline towards $ 110.60 as Gustaav was declared a category 2 storm from the earlier Category 4; fears about it disrupting the oil supply waned a bit and it seemed that the oil rigs will remain undamaged and it will pass through without affecting much the mainland and oil operations. This gave a big relief to the oil producers and resultantly, gas and oil prices saw a sharp cut. Also, Lehman brothers the much talked about investment group being in trouble is going to finally receive an investment worth 6 billion dollars nearly from the Korean development bank in return to the stake sell which would be nearly about 25%; this will further clear the impasse being present in the US financial system.
The cut in the oil prices will lead to a welcome rally tomorrow in the global markets and we expect across the board a smart gains posted by the asian and its peer emerging markets. Interest rate sensitives are expected to post major gains tomorrow. saw sharp decline following concerns emerging from falling personal income levels, drop in IT bell weather DELL profits and sales and the category 4 storm devastations. It will be interesting to see during the holiday in the US markets today how much the storm has impacted the crude production and supply.
S&P CNX NIFTY
Close: 4348
The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered.
If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 4,430. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 4,530. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 4,500 area.
Suggested standing placement of fail-safe stops...
If Long -- exit all contracts at ... 4,200
If Short -- exit all contracts at ... 4,650
One has to be bullish on intraday basis with respect to prevailing trend; we do believe that auto nos. will be fairly in line with estimates and markets will remain positively biased. Seeing holiday in the US markets today and in Indian markets on Wednesday, Trading volumes are expected to be lackluster but the propelling for the volumes could be the trend setter of crude oil leading to optiimism.
I had recommended in my last article about Sun Pharma & United Phos. Sun Pharma gave very good upmove of 3% returns from the level recommended while United was rated as strong buy gave about 5% returns from the buy levels recommended. I congratulate to all friends who paid heed to this daily article.
I recommended GHCL and Indiabulls Real estate on Friday. Inspite of the volatility both stocks did extremely well with GHCL 5 % from the 82 levels recommended & Indiabulls real estate short call given at 293 and now trading at 261.
Stocks to watch out will be Moser Baer, Canara Bank & SBI....
In reply to:
2nd September
Posted by : BearCartel
I would'nt be surprised if the Oil cartel had arranged for gustav... public bought & they sold...
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