Market Analysis - Technical View

28th July

Posted by : pkjattking

the storm brewing in gulf of Mexico will b over bi monday........ speculators will b left holding the bag when its over..n done with... however it seems like market makers want to take the our mkt for a bit of a ride.............. which is healthy in short term....... play defensive.... now ...ok.......

Crude rally may push Nifty below 4,250: Ashwani Gujral

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Technical Analyst, Ashwani Gujral said that one should trade once current levels are broken. According to him, the rally is tapering off and markets are forming lower lows. He feels that if crude goes above USD 120 per barrel, Nifty may go below 4250 levels. He believes that markets may revisit lows.

28th July

Posted by : gv

Dear novice,
You summed up nicely
But-I am not able to reconcile the increase in number of new Mobile connections
Month after month
Regds
GV

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

we are lucky, inflation numbers good.. our minnifty should fetch us good profit if crude behaves and GDP is good.. when is the GDP number going to be released?

28th July

Posted by : novice1000

dear pitquote,

Hats off to you.You have touched the crux of the problem.

Though i am not aware about the official numbers which you mentioned, i have been watching the ground level scenario very carefully and it clearly shows how the purchasing power has been shrinking over the years.

In fact the process of shirking started in the year 2005 and it peaked in the year 2008.And it would take a couple of years to recoup and to see some improvement in the purchasing power of the lower segment of the middle class and the lower class.

That is the reason i clearly mentioned in many msgs in the recent past \\` though markets raise temporarily for the time being, it is difficult to see those levels on a sustainable basis \\`.

Next one or two years ( basing on how crude prices pan out in the next 3 to 6 months), investments in stock markets have to be very stock specific.

While the investors are worried about their investments, lower segment of the society is really struggling hard to cope with higher cost of living.

regards

28th July

Posted by : vam_aru

Inflation eases to 12.4% on drop in fuel, power prices ( From NDTVProfit dot com )

US GDP is come at around 3.3 % ,Good rate considering the economic conditions, and The US markets are rallying now.

for our markets Inflation is the key, so tomorrow we should be seeing good rally in banking, Cap goods , and Infrastructure stocks ( as RBI will not Intervene with rates again for now )

Regards

Aru

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

we are lucky, inflation numbers good.. our minnifty should fetch us good profit if crude behaves and GDP is good.. when is the GDP number going to be released?

28th July

Posted by : pitquote

Dear Mrs Radhika
Market is critically poised. Let us see how it moves before this month end- Personally either way the market should be active and not choppy. Yes- Fall or rise- let it be three digits- We all talk of GDP - PE and other things. None bothered to have a look at Per capita income which has eroded by more than 18 percent when comparing to CLI (cost of living index). Disposable income has shrinked is taking a lot of beating. Cheers and have a nice day.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

pitquote,

Inflation is good.. next to watch is GDP... inflation has broken 28 week rising trend.. its a positive number though at double digits its nothing to be complacent about.

28th July

Posted by : pitquote

Expecting NIFTY at 4000 or may hover around that region. Let us watch. Interest sensitive areas will take a heavy beating and right time for those sitting in the banks to take a bath in the finance sector. Cheers

28th July

Posted by : vam_aru

me too, any way we have made a bad judgement, as per RAJAT BOSE ( CNBC ) i have taken different view and took one SEP Mini NIFTY at 4226

Also as a one month horizon bet Taken RELIANCE IND SEP Futures at 2080 My Target would be 2230, If the stock falls below 1930 I will add one more Lot.

Regards

Aru

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,

My view based on my limited knowledge and experience of markets is,

We are at HISTORIC BREAKOUT probability point for - Stock market in INDIA -
We have seen in last five years fantastic returns on investment observed in many stocks in such a short timespan of 5 to 8 years- we had not even imagined such returns in our whole trading and investing life-

After such bull runs come period of sideways and down moves where stocks change hands -

we are in such down move since last 8 months Jan2008 being month of all time high top - how long this down move will last and when new upward breakout will happen is the most important issue in many minds today.

Technical view-
We are much below YEARLY open of year 2008 thus without doubt in a correction mode / sideways/ down move at present.
Fresh buying is just too scary if yearly outlook is considered.

Let us zoom in - quarterly outlook-
2008 First quarter Jan- Mar 08 was bearish candle
second quarter Apr - Jun 08 was also bearish candle
BUT July - Sep 08 is DEFINITELY BULLISH - we are above open of July 08 in many stocks thus it says - POSSIBILITY of FRESH UPMOVE is VERY MUCH THERE in the offing -
As a chartist , wait for sep 08 close for confirmation is best strategy at present.
If July- Sep 08 is doji with lower leg then a GOOD probability of OCT - DEC 08 Bullish candle resulting into quarterly morning star pattern will arise .

Zoom in further into monthly charts-
Chechout simple 3 month moving average of most leading stocks and you will find that for Sep 08 a bull candle above 3 month simple moving average showing bullish breakout is very EASY as 3 month moving average is very VULNERABLE / POISED for yielding in favour of bulls.

Weekly and daily chart suggest such breakout is JUST AROUND THE CORNER and countdown is already on for probable MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS,
Targets RIL 4500
Relcap 5000
RPL 480
RNRL 350
and many more for many other stocks.

Prepare yourselves for new top.

Experience says Operators are long , Morons are short.


Disclaimer-
I hold RNRL and RPL and plan to buy more any stock i like for investment- do your own homework before taking any decision - these are pure personal views - MANY FRIENDS KNOW their MEANING-

warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
This message is my ADVANCE return gift to you all friends and wellwishers as today-
Shitla saptami - vad saptami of shravan is my BIRTHDAY .
Born on a day before LORD Krishna- Jai Shree Krishna- Pranam to Elder friends- Love to younger friends- Jaadu ki zappi to all-
Wish you all profits and peace of mind.

28th July

Posted by : vam_aru

me too, any way we have made a bad judgement, as per RAJAT BOSE ( CNBC ) i have taken different view and took one SEP Mini NIFTY at 4226

Also as a one month horizon bet Taken RELIANCE IND SEP Futures at 2080 My Target would be 2230, If the stock falls below 1930 I will add one more Lot.

Regards

Aru