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Market Analysis - Technical View
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Watch Bank stocks now as they will shoot to another high Level.
Its time to BUY in Banks stocks.
...
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RN,
Tomorrow the CRR will be cut by 150 basis points..so markets are moving up
Time to buy some calls...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by :
radhika_nandlal
And shankar said for the longeterm investor
THE TRADE IS NOT EQUITIES ITS ELSEWHERE
But he did a 180 degree turn recently so his calls could just be hot air proving itself coincidentally right. LOL Had he stuck to his call we should have called it foresight but he changed his views 180 degrees recently. 
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Sensex Technical View :
Technically Sensex is making lows almost lower to the channel support and on a simple terms yes its highly oversold but still bearish. Now lets try to simplify it through some technical points .
1) 30 % dip
January the panic month saw a dip of 27.7 % . In July markets fell around 29.4% at 12500. Now in October we have made a low of 10750 which is almost 31 % . So as per previous observation the markets have already fallen as before and a very sharp corrective bounce should be round the corner.
2) Channel and Trendlines.
As we see in the chart there are two lines taking different points. One comes to around 11200-11500 and other at 10500. Also on Dollex charts indices are very close to the support line. Technically markets have not closed below this line even in major panics. If it closes below 10500 then the only sensible technical level is 9700.
3) Indicators
RSI , MACD and many other indicators are almost close to Jan levels which had seen lower ckts. In such a scenario it can be said that markets are getting into highly oversold panic levels.After such a panic scenario the bounce back could be very sharp.
4) Fibonacci Levels
The important fibonacci levels for the entire bull run is at 11900 and 9700 out of which 11900 is broken and implies we may very well head towards 9700 as the next major stop and the most important level for a change of structural long term bull market is 8799 which is a decider over next whole year.
After taking a clear exit calls at 18900/17500/16700/16100 we have been going with a strategy of buying in declines to sell on corrective bear rallies. Earlier we bought at 14k-12.5k to get back to cash at 15k +. Right now the decision to start buying slowly frm 12.5k to 11k seems we had started a bit earlier and only thing which gives a lil comfort is 50-60 % exposure taken and rest cash be kept on hold which should now wait only and let markets stabilize. Lots of stocks might have corrected 20 % lower from starting prices or quoting at those levels below acquisition price.
Technically all indicators, analysis points to an end of the correction at 10500-11200 but at the same time few days back it seemed 11200-11900 should hold so cant really say whether we will stop at 10740 or not but it seems 9700 zone is the most important zone as its the 61 % correction to watch in case there is a whole round panic coming over in global and indian indices.
Earlier in my previous post about the Big debate where in it was presented that 11900 or 9700 which could be the bottom zone for the market. My assumption that Sept/Oct may see an economic peak does seem to be right but the extent of it and the panic which i expected could take us to 11900 + - few hundred points seems to has gone wrong as the panic seen in markets has been much much more then i expected. So the debate seems to have turned in favour of 9700 !!!
Here in another attached view which i had was even if we have to go to 9700 the technical implication would be a low around 11900-11200 which would be 30 % dip and then a bounce of 20-24 % which may take us to 13500 and then we may see whether market breaks the low made around 11200-11900 and then we may take a call whether markets are headed for 9700 odd or not . So technically if we break the low around 10740 or say 10500 in coming days then we could very well head to 9700 odd levels. Also 8799 is the level which should hold over any panic and I HAVE pure belief that we are not going below coz thats a major level for the INDIA STORY which is still the best over next 3-5 -8 years....
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RN,
Yeah, Though he changed views in between, still those words are echoing in me now, see the cut of SGX nifty 326 points... so we might be staring down 10 % down in 10 minutes on NIFTY..and the tading would be halted,
Risk takers can take one or two Nifty lot if we closed the market for one hour....
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
And shankar said for the longeterm investor
THE TRADE IS NOT EQUITIES ITS ELSEWHERE
But he did a 180 degree turn recently so his calls could just be hot air proving itself coincidentally right. LOL Had he stuck to his call we should have called it foresight but he changed his views 180 degrees recently.
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Did he? When? Last time i heard him he was still bearish....
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
And shankar said for the longeterm investor
THE TRADE IS NOT EQUITIES ITS ELSEWHERE
But he did a 180 degree turn recently so his calls could just be hot air proving itself coincidentally right. LOL Had he stuck to his call we should have called it foresight but he changed his views 180 degrees recently.
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So well Vipulbhai agian here to argue with u, well as usual u called `buy with full cash, yestreday and we might just open gap down today, we might just fall towards 8K this year only (If DOW is replicating 1930) or we might just move first towards 14 and fall towards 8k next year (if DOW is replicating 1974 or 1987). Ok thats a different story, We have a challenge open of Reliance and Reliance Capital hitting new tops this year and shorts were to be bankrupt and there shorts too were to be snatched by the bulls. Ok again that too is diffrent story, time to tell a new story, well the sensex rallied from 2002 to 2007 and we had corrections at every levels, corrections at 6k which was a correction to 2003 to 2004 rise and breakout after a year, then the sensex rallied to 12.6 k and corrected to 8.8k, a correction to rally form 6K in april 2005 to 12.6k in May 2006 and continuing on till Jan 2008. Now and yes most probably this wud be the outcome we are in for a correction to the total bull run i.e maybe 1986 uptil now or 1990 uptil now, Why because we are in a synchronised World and Many Asian Indices (who are in doom after the boom, while the real eceonomy has replicated developed worlds) are guiding us. Also Nasdaq was in boom at 2000, the tech was not eveolving, now tech is at the boom but nasdaq index is in doom. Indian economy is readying itlsef for the boom and the index for the doom. That is finally majority of Indians too wud enojoy the boom....
In reply to:
Will Nifty50 hit 33000 and Bse 30 hit 107400
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Friends,
Do not get shocked.
I am definitely not writing from home for mentally retarded people.
This is my own personal view based on my limited knowledge and study of INDIAN stock market.
Call it Vipul Lashkari Theory if you want to name it.
Forget this message after reading it if you do not like it, if you see any LOGIC in it, just save it or print it for FUTURE use.
Indian stock market has seen ups and downs with periods of high volatility and sideways moves called corrections.
Basic theme is GROWTH.
Basic assumption is we will continue to grow for next 15 years.
Bse 30 index has made alltime high of 21206 and Nifty50 has made alltime high of around 6500 in January 2008 .
From there today on 9 October 2008 we are at bse30 10740 low and nifty50 around 3300 low made on 8 Oct 2008.
My theory is,
We have touched significant bottom .
We will be in sideways move now onwards.
Extreme short term we will see significant upmove till last week of 2009 January or 1st week of February 2009 from current lows.
In next 18 months time that is, by April 2010 we will observe DOUBLE TOP formation in nifty 50 and bse 30 index.
Then onwards we will have sideways move for FEW YEARS .
Next top will be 33000 for nifty50 and 107400 for bse 30 index by year 2023-2024. That is 15 years away from today.
Basic theme is, we will have periods of inflation and recession but ultimately higher level of prices will come.
Ask your grandpa if he is still there , what was price of gold or 1 acre land or 100 kg wheat.
The lower levels which prices leave behind, have never come back.
After corrections there is always a new high .
Trillion dollar question is , how to play these periods.
My view is, RIDE THE TREND.
How ! Answer is, follow basic rules.
Buy above open with stoploss at open, sell below open with stoploss at open .
Apply it to yearly charts, quarterly charts, monthly charts, weekly and daily charts for long, medium, short and extreme short term plays.
Simple 3 period moving average should also be your guide, its value and direction will help you.
Think about return on investnment if your money if invested at 10 percent return per annum compounded yearly , 100 rs will become 417.72 rs at end of 15 years. a 4 times return whereas this theory suggests 10 times return.
Think about it.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
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Nifty: (3513)
Yesterday, We saw a free fall in Nifty once it broke below 3800 levels, complete bloodbath made nifty to move closer to 3200 region, our next target on any further weakness.
For today,
Yesterday, quite effortlessly, we saw another free fall towards 3200 levels as 3330 level was the new low being created. Still, below 3600 levels, markets would see further selling pressure and only above 3800, we could see some momentum returning on the upside, till then it will remain a sell on rally market.
Keep an eye on the 3600 levels, below this 3200 and 3350 are next support levels and 3800 is the resistance on the upside. Global cues are very negative and only very strong domestic cues can change sentiments.
- courtesy stox and more...
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BSE index: (11328)
Yesterday, Markets showed a free fall in line with the prevalent market conditions, testing levels below 11000 and then recovered some lost ground to close above support levels of 11200. The panic at the higher levels indicated weak sentiments in the system and strong selling pressure persisting in the system.
For today, -----------
Consider, free fall to continue till 10750 and if we break that, 10200-10350 should be next region to look out for. Only, if markets bounce off to cross over 12300 and close above it, trend will change, till then it will remain a sell on rallies. Trend remains down and one should not go for leveraged position on the upside till we do not really show a real strength above 12800. Selling pressure is expected to continue and one should use hedged derivative positions to short at every rise at present.
Keep a close watch at the three important data figures today one by one after a weak opening as expected in line with the global markets. Infosys guidance would be an important valuation parameter for the entire IT sector. Inflation figures are on a medium downtrend now as per the prevalent global trend but IIP figures will be the economic progress indicator which will give an indication for the economy in the coming months.
-courtesy stox and more...
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And shankar said for the longeterm investor
THE TRADE IS NOT EQUITIES ITS ELSEWHERE
But he did a 180 degree turn recently so his calls could just be hot air proving itself coincidentally right. LOL Had he stuck to his call we should have called it foresight but he changed his views 180 degrees recently....
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : vam_aru
RN,
Just As HLN proved his views right about ( 3600 on nifty), Shankar Sharma also proved his views right now, he said "Crude can be at 80 $ and India could still have a bear Market" , he said when the crude was at 140 $, and here we go , he proved right....
Infosys downgraded the dollar guidance, and it will not please the market...
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Vam,
HLN proved himself right but inbetween he gave some bullish calls too just after which the Nifty ticked down. I dont know what the basis of those bullish calls were since he does not acknowledge his mistakes. But one cannot play options from his calls coz the premium undergo decay due to both volatility and time, at best one could have pared their exposure in equities following his call....
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : vam_aru
RN,
Just As HLN proved his views right about ( 3600 on nifty), Shankar Sharma also proved his views right now, he said "Crude can be at 80 $ and India could still have a bear Market" , he said when the crude was at 140 $, and here we go , he proved right....
Infosys downgraded the dollar guidance, and it will not please the market...
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Shankarsharma proved himself to be HANDSOMELY RIGHT. LOL...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : vam_aru
RN,
Just As HLN proved his views right about ( 3600 on nifty), Shankar Sharma also proved his views right now, he said "Crude can be at 80 $ and India could still have a bear Market" , he said when the crude was at 140 $, and here we go , he proved right....
Infosys downgraded the dollar guidance, and it will not please the market...
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RN,
Just As HLN proved his views right about ( 3600 on nifty), Shankar Sharma also proved his views right now, he said "Crude can be at 80 $ and India could still have a bear Market" , he said when the crude was at 140 $, and here we go , he proved right....
Infosys downgraded the dollar guidance, and it will not please the market...
...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Vam,
I feel dow will not slide that much today....
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Thanks, I think i will buy it at EOD today....
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : eshers
3500CE should be around 80 rs if we open closer to where SGX is suggesting.. I calcualted based on the closed IV %..
Cheers
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3500CE should be around 80 rs if we open closer to where SGX is suggesting.. I calcualted based on the closed IV %..
Cheers...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Eshers,
Would it be foolishness on my part to expect a recovery in dow today and Asian markets on Monday, i dont know. I already have one loss in my 4300 CE bought at Rs 48, two of them... i will go ahead and buy another 3500 CE two of them today.. whats the rate for 3500 CE?
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Eshers,
Would it be foolishness on my part to expect a recovery in dow today and Asian markets on Monday, i dont know. I already have one loss in my 4300 CE bought at Rs 48, two of them... i will go ahead and buy another 3500 CE two of them today.. whats the rate for 3500 CE?...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : eshers
RN,
These are times for strangles and straddles.. I agree recovery could be sharp, but its just not happening.. The OTM calls arent cheap either.. We could lose a lot on time-decay if we have one bad day..
I suggest you take positions on both sides, you could still make money..
Cheers
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