Market View

2nd September

Posted by : roameri

What\\`s your take for Monday 10/09/2008 ?
There is a lot of talk, may be loose, on a gap up of 50,100 and even 200 points.
By your strategy we should +/- 30 to the 5th. C of 4366 and see if higher Bullish and if lower Bearish.
Cheers!!!
j.

2nd September

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Vam,

Dow follows technicals
75% of the times.

Our index 45% of the time.

I am certain coz i have been following dow for one year now..

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : DUstocks

Hi lovemeal126, thanks for a thourough response to a rather casual post of mine ! Surely hallmark of a good and observant trader !!

Yes, I did think of studying NIFTY in depth, but RN's readily available TRIN assistance was preferred for the purpose by lazy ME.

These days I'm more into trading on the basis of RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MSI (Market Sentiment Index, coined by me, a combination of Put/Call ratio + individual stock sentiment + trading volumes) and results have been spectacular to say the least.

On the basis of RSI (OVERSOLD) I got into ACC + GRASIM + IDBI + ABAN + SBIN + BHEL + Finantech and scored very well in multi-lot futures trading. On the basis of MSI I got into Larsen (bonus) + SesaGoa (bonus/split) + Educomp (sheer OPERATORS' PLAY) and scored equally emphatically.

On the basis of OVERSOLD or OVERBOUGHT RSI I take swing positions, whereas exclusively day-trading positions are taken on the basis of MSI. Hope the success trend continues. If ever I need to fall back upon NIFTY bare-bones, I will definitely bother you and/or RN (MD). Regards, DU.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello DU sir,
Its such a pleasure to meet you here after so long. One thing we share in common is that both of us are bare-bone FnO traders. I also do options but in less quantity. But delivery, I only do it in sugar stocks.
Its sad that you do not follow the nifty. Now, here comes the difference between us. I do not follow the sensex - lol. In fact, for many days, I do not even know what sensex levels opened at and closed at. But nifty, I remember quite a bit of numbers by heart. I personally feel ,the nifty futures gives the exact level of sentiments and technical levels of this market. For instance, a premium on the nifty shows its bullishness and inversely a discount shows its bearishness. The amount of discount or premium gives me an idea about the extent of the emotional quotient. This is not possible with the sensex. For instance, during bullish phases, nifty trades at premiums above 30 rupees and last time we were around 3800 levels, it was trading in huge discounts of rs. 50 and above. I hope you get my point. I will suggest you to follow the nifty like a hawk , which will improve your trading skills greatly, although I know you are pretty adept at that. When I see the nifty going up fast, I instantly go long on my future lots and the nifty pulls up other stocks along with it.
This analysis I did of the nifty making the head and shoulders is more or less in its final stages of formation. If we do not cross 4650 this time and start going down again from there and when we break 4220-4240, this pattern gets final confirmation - please note. Otherwise, there is no guarantee that this head and shoulders will definately play out its bearish note.
I am sure you must have understood. There is no need to thank me for sharing my thoughts. I have learnt much much from this board and am more than happy to give it back what I learnt on my personal front.
regards
lovemeall26

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : nightowl

i agrre with you tom,
4200 the low that hln predicted has been achieved... but i dont think we,ll go as high as 17500.. if we are lucky. perhaps.. 16500.. for now that should be the target... targets keep changing with changing scanarios, and so lets just wait and see.. if the chicago volitility index fall under 20 again... expect a fall... higher volatility is required for a market to move upwards.. and history has proven that as a fact.
regards
rittu

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : joetom

Dear HLN,

I am repeating what I said elsewhere, your predicting 3600 when the Nifty was in the range 5000-6370 is to be considered as achieved and you get the full credit for that. 5% difference is nothing for a such a long distance call. But, to go back below 3600 is likely if only we have some serious negative news. We have already had higher tops and higher bottoms in last few days. So, in my view market will go somewhere like 17500 and form double top formation, if it has to fall back again. If Sensex breaks above that level, we will be in the Bull phase and sure to touch previous all time high within a year.

Your patience to answer incorrigible Guest id's is really admirable. I can't stand them.

Best regards,
Tom

Nuclear Deal is on........

Posted by : nakul

Friends,
The Nuclear Deal is through.NSG has given the nod.
Now Prez Bush has to pass in the Congress.
Well, that is a trigger for our market to go up on Monday.Dow tanked by 300 points and still our market didn’t go down by 1000 points which use to be the case in the past.We use to see that type of mayhem in our market.It use to be 3 times what Dow use to be down.But our market went down by only 400 points and many were thinking that our market will tank by over 600-700 points.
Seems the decoupling is taking place in some way.
Actually there is no room for stocks to go down as most of the stocks are already down by 50-60-70% or even more.Some of the A gr stocks are still high and hence room for them to go down further but that may even not happen.
Well, I still believe that Bull Market is intact and we are not in a Bear Market.All the Bull Market ended in a Scam and there is no Scam.I have written many times here that if FII’s have not sold 69,000 cr since Jan last then we would have not seen this much down side.

I would like to ask everyone who are bearish that if FII would have not sold Rs 69000 cr has we have been at 12500?Another queation.....had FII sold Rs69000 cr due to slow down of our or due to Subprime LOSS?
I think one should be able to find the answer in this question....

Our growth is still around 8% GDP and by any standard it is still excellent.The results that have come uptill now is not atall that bad and remember that this results have come while Crude was at $140 and more.Now with Crude coming down and with that inflation will also come down we should see a good results from next quarter.
Now there are no such stocks remaining where investor can loose money as almost all stocks are down atleast by 50%.There is no more room for stocks to go down and hence it can be safely said that if you have not sold anything , don’t sell it now thinking that market can go to below 10k level.Ofcourse this is my view and one must take a call on his own.
Above 16000 level the bears will take our market to over 18k level on short covering and from then on we will be again in Bull Market according to the technical analyst .The charts are not exhibiting bullishness but everyone knows I do not look on charts.I know we had a trying time for last 6 months and I have been proved wrong on more then one occasion in this 6 months.So it can be everybody’s guess what to take from what I writes.Why I do not believe charts?Because they have proved wrong for the whole bull run.I remember I do have arguements with others at MMB when they use to give bearish call on base of charts and technicals and they have to often eat the word.I will only tell here that those who feels that they were able to see all these levels of 12k , then 16k, then 21k and also able to see the down levels from 21k to 12500, and also acted accordingly , as I assume that when a person sees all these he should have acted accordingly, then he must be the richest person in India.Maybe he says he is a small player even then he must have made millions as seeing all those levels upto 21k and also seeing 12500 levels can give multiple returns, by say atleast 15 times and not less.So if even one starts with 1 lac he will be at 15 lacs and more by now....

I see the valuations and see the situation.That is the bottom line that I am following.Huge investment is coming in Power sector, Water management,Telecom,Infra that we don’t need to look for export.More over with rupee depreciating that sector is also going to out perform ….viz: IT ….it will be the main beneficiary as I can’t speak more on other export oriented sector but in IT we are almost at par with USA.
Try to find companies with niche products and software which can give multiple returns in IT Viz:E -Commerce,E-business,animation,Media, Search Engine etc ,all these sector will grow with at over 40% year to year for next 3-4 years.Just heard that ADAG is taking over Fame India(Old Shringar Cinema) so watch out for media stocks like, BAG Films, Baba Arts , Grey Cell Entertainment etc.
Google has come out with a new browser ,named Google chrome and it is fast and looking nice.Anyone can down load it from internet and use it.It is a challenge to Microsoft for its Internet Explorer browser which we use.It is also a challenge to Fire Fox as well.


Comments:This is exactly written at my blog......

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600

Posted by : panni

to-morrow is the day of gain,& intraday can be played,purchase GMR Infrastructure,axis bank

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600

Posted by : jonas

Nightowl,
We may see a minor fall on mon/tues on GUSTAV fears to shed some gains of friday n US is closed on monday so no clues for tuesday.
Once gustav hurricane fears subside oil may tank below $ 110, anytime in the next 2 weeks.
Nifty has gained @ 15% in the past 1.5 months.
I am not an expert but i feel nifty will gain @ 15% in the first half of sep n then shed @ 10% in the later half but overall it will gain by +5 % by sep end n close @ 4500.
I will go long nifty now n short after it reaches 4800/5000 levels.
I will stick to my GUT feelings.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Don't just start buy the puts from tomorrow, wait for 3 or 4 days then buy it....

NSG waiver to give a sentiment boost to mkts

Posted by : MMB Messenger

It will be a sentimental leg up for sure for the markets. But beyond that I don’t think it will matter too much in the life of financial markets.

< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >

Posted by : TrueCompanion

reverse acquisition :

One way for a company to become publicly traded, by acquiring a public company and then installing its own management team and renaming the acquired company.

** Here the parent company is not publicly traded, before acquisition.

07.09.2008

NSG waiver to give a sentiment boost to mkts

Posted by : MMB Messenger

It will be a sentimental leg up for sure for the markets. But beyond that I don’t think it will matter too much in the life of financial markets.