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Moneycontrol.com >> Messageboard >> Category >> Market View >> Market Outlook - Short Term
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06 Sep 2008 21:07

MMB Messenger,

I think its a victory becoz i hear deafening cracker noises in my neighborhood....

In reply to:

Is this a victory as the Cong says or a surrender as the Left says? What do you think?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

06 Sep 2008 21:06

Hi Radhika,

Congrats for your keen observation of Dow Movements.
In my comparative study of Dow and Nifty, I found that
there may be some time gap between the peak formed by
Dow and Nifty. For example, Dow had made peak on 12 Aug.
When it touched 11868 or so. Nifty too made a recent peak
of 4650 on the same day but now it is process of making
DOUBLE TOP FORMATION which means it will touch 4600-4650
again. But if it failed to rise above 4650, then it may
co-incide with dow movements. if it could not cross 4650,
then it is most likely to fall very sharply to keep pace
with Dow. I observe that Nifty has to fall in exact
proportion with Dow. If dow has 800 points below its recent
peak, then Nifty too has to fall by the same proportion to
keep its pace with mother of all indices. Logically Nifty
should be around 3900 now. If it is not, it has to collapse
fast sooner or later.

Cheers...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

HLN,

Dow's MACD fast line just slipped below the slow line ystday... it most likely will fall by wednesday coz it takes time for the MACD effect to kick in... which means down goes our nifty too..... its best to buy puts the next two days when it will be cheap coz of nuke deal and coz the MACD of dow will take a day or two to kick in.

06 Sep 2008 21:02

Mohan,

Next two days i would mostly focus on buying PUTS coz DOW'S MACD fast line slipped below its slow line.. when this happens dow slides by a good 5% but it takes a day or two for it to slip so the best time to buy PUTs would be now... but i have gone horribly wrong last week and it may prove injurious if you followed me... i am not guaranting anything, i am just mentioning my trade direction.....

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : mohanji

Radhikaji,
Congrats on India's great acheivement.Today is a very proud day for every indian.We should be bullish not only in stock market but in India' future too.So what are you planning for monday? ...I know you must be busy with your excel.Do share your plans for monday.Regards

06 Sep 2008 21:00

Yes some folks think its dumb to invest in MFs if ur such a tech enthusiast... but you see MFs can go short anytime but if we want to avoid tax we cannot sell befor a year is up.. so by investing in MFs we believe they will take adequate care by shorting when markets are bearish... but alas have we seen such returns from shorting...when markets slip NAV slips, had they really been shorting at least they could have given us a fair and stagnant NAV.. lol lol keeping the pie to themsevless.. but we never see the shorting effect play out in NAVs during bearish phases.. wonder why? It means fund managers are dumb if NAV slips during bearish times... if they shorted it should at least be stagnant.......

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Vam,

Yes many many many many small and medium sized companies can upgrade to dual technology now with the nuke deal.. i believe until then they had mono technology... this upgradation would mean good margin for most companies? I think this is the best time to invest in SIP... coz inspite of the recession india could show 8-9% growth...what do u say.. i am a little naive about these matters. I would put money in reliance growth from next month about 2k every month...

06 Sep 2008 20:55

HLN,

Dow's MACD fast line just slipped below the slow line ystday... it most likely will fall by wednesday coz it takes time for the MACD effect to kick in... which means down goes our nifty too..... its best to buy puts the next two days when it will be cheap coz of nuke deal and coz the MACD of dow will take a day or two to kick in....

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear Guest,

Make no mistake, Nifty is most likely to hit
4600+ shortly. All holders of call Options will
make good profit. From 4600, Nifty may come down
to 4320 which is a firm support level. From 4320
if it rises to cross 4650, then 5000 may not be
too far away but if it failed to cross 4650, then
it will collapse making lower bottoms and lower tops
as it slides further down.

06 Sep 2008 20:53

Vam,

Yes many many many many small and medium sized companies can upgrade to dual technology now with the nuke deal.. i believe until then they had mono technology... this upgradation would mean good margin for most companies? I think this is the best time to invest in SIP... coz inspite of the recession india could show 8-9% growth...what do u say.. i am a little naive about these matters. I would put money in reliance growth from next month about 2k every month......

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Remember Hindustan condstruction also...will move significantly.

06 Sep 2008 20:50

Dear Guest,

Make no mistake, Nifty is most likely to hit
4600+ shortly. All holders of call Options will
make good profit. From 4600, Nifty may come down
to 4320 which is a firm support level. From 4320
if it rises to cross 4650, then 5000 may not be
too far away but if it failed to cross 4650, then
it will collapse making lower bottoms and lower tops
as it slides further down....

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : Guest

Dear Suresh

Those who bought CALL say that the market will touch 4650 first then it will come down to 4150. Those who bought PUT say that the market will touch 4150 first then it will go to 4650. You see the difference is 200 points for 4150 and 300 points for 4650 from CMP, so I feel it will reach the lower point first, means 4150. One need to watch that if it goes down to 4150 then there is a chance that it may fall another 200 points. your views please.

06 Sep 2008 20:43

HCC target is 120 then 143, yes there has been BS views and that will make it move like rocket....

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

HCC should move significanly!

There were many SELL calls by different BS experts earlier. :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

06 Sep 2008 20:43

Dear Aru,
Your posn seems to be quite favourable for monday.I hv noticed that you generally trade in deep in the money options.Can you please enumerate your reasons for the same? ..I sort of avoid them ..being costly and carrying the risk of high valatilty.Regards...

In reply to:

How to write PUTS to Purchase stocks

Posted by : vam_aru

Mohan,

I Have sold one 4600 PE and one 4700 PE , ( both combined 580 rs ),
and have only Two puts of 4450 PE ( buy ) which i will be getting rid inthe morning, and I may be buying some 4400 CE in the morning.

At 4650 levels I will square off my Two sold PUTs.

06 Sep 2008 20:42

Dear chchch,

You have posted a great question.
In near term, market can go against
global cues. But in the long run, their
pressure is unavoidable. The same thing
happened on 22 July when government survived
vote of confidence. Indian market moved sharply
against negative global cues. Shape of Nifty on
chart otherwise also indicates strong bounce back.
NSG waiver has added fuel to the fire. You will see
Nifty hitting 4600 very shortly. Oil and Gas, Poewr,
Energy, capital goods, metals sectors will shoot up
like a rocket powered by nuclear fuel. Stocks to watch:

RELIANCE
ONGC
BPCL
BHEL
LARSEN
RELIANCE PETRO
SUZLON ENERGY
JP HYDRO
RNRL
GAIL



Thanks


SURESH MITTAL...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : chchch

Will our markets move up against the tide of world markets which are crashing or can atleast hold, because of the single factor of obtaining NSG waiver?

06 Sep 2008 20:42

Larsen 3500, Bhel 2500...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Larsen, BHEL etc etc are going to zoom on monday...

06 Sep 2008 20:40

Just a note if you have don't have past data.
In feb 2003 Nifty was in 3 digit and it was at 920 level. Rs was that time at 47-48 levels. jan 2008, nifty was at 6300+, that is 7 times than its 2003 low and according to you nifty should have been trading at par with $ but Rs just moved from 47-48 levels to 39-40 levels.

Now 5 digit on nifty is just more than double than current level so thinking that Rs will go to 5 Rs level, you can not be serious.

very bullish and 5 digit on nifty will be hit in 2009....

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 9999 & SENSEX TOUCH 34997

Posted by : vam_aru

I don't have that much bullish targets for NIFTY , That too in one year 5700 jump, That will be too much for india to handle, if that too happen all the FIIs shoud exit from all markets and put money here, all the global indices will go to Three digits then we can have 5 digits in NIFTY. Imagine if they do that way our rupee against dollar will be 5 rs.

06 Sep 2008 20:29

I wonder,ANNA,how delighted those kids and their mom would be to see that their picture is appearing repeatedly on the front page on MMB. Their happiness could well be more than that of their father\\`s.

SARVAM KRISHNAARPANAM
Bhavani...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : googol

0604

Dear eshers,

May I ask you who are those two lovely சமத்து குடம்s in the photograph?

Cheers

06 Sep 2008 20:24

Mohan,

I Have sold one 4600 PE and one 4700 PE , ( both combined 580 rs ),
and have only Two puts of 4450 PE ( buy ) which i will be getting rid inthe morning, and I may be buying some 4400 CE in the morning.

At 4650 levels I will square off my Two sold PUTs....

In reply to:

How to write PUTS to Purchase stocks

Posted by : mohanji

Dear Aru,
No,I don't hv straddle(I am not that meticulous like you).I had purchased calls and puts at random.I had two sold puts of 4100,one call of 4600 and one nifty future(long)earliar.On friday I added one 4200 put at rs 77 at 3.25pm.Whats your level of puts and calls

06 Sep 2008 20:18

China, a Left country, tried its level best to block the NSG waiver in last three days. Its NSG representative even remained absent on day three, as I learn (not yet confirmed). China put forth the small western and european countries for the purpose. The opposition of those other countries was based on principle of nuclear non-proliferation. But China has dirty hands in providing illegal nuclear material and technology to pak and Dr. Khan. At last Prez Bush had to talk China in person to remove the hurdle. Was China opposing the waiver just because Leftist in India were against the deal ? No, China even does not know the names of Indian Leftiest leaders. It just can not tolerate Indian progress, this we know since 1962. If China was opposing Indian case, how it can be surrender? If it could have been surrender, China should have been more than happy, but it was opposite case. Indian Leftiest are opposing just because of their allergy to US. Otherwise Indian Leftiest are so fool that if it rains in Beijing, they pull out the umbrellas here in Delhi. Leftist are the most foolish politicians worldwide. Its a dead philosophy. Be assured, Left MPs will reduce to single digit in next elections. This will happen even with WB and Kerala holds. Its a VICTORY...NO DOUBT, whatsoever. Cheers... ...

In reply to:

Is this a victory as the Cong says or a surrender as the Left says? What do you think?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

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Is this a victory as the Cong says or a surrender as the Left says? What do you think?

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