Offline
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
You are here : Moneycontrol  MMB Market View |
| The latest messages in different topics under Market View are displayed on this page |
Market View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Friends,
The Nuclear Deal is through.NSG has given the nod.
Now Prez Bush has to pass in the Congress.
Well, that is a trigger for our market to go up on Monday.Dow tanked by 300 points and still our market didn’t go down by 1000 points which use to be the case in the past.We use to see that type of mayhem in our market.It use to be 3 times what Dow use to be down.But our market went down by only 400 points and many were thinking that our market will tank by over 600-700 points.
Seems the decoupling is taking place in some way.
Actually there is no room for stocks to go down as most of the stocks are already down by 50-60-70% or even more.Some of the A gr stocks are still high and hence room for them to go down further but that may even not happen.
Well, I still believe that Bull Market is intact and we are not in a Bear Market.All the Bull Market ended in a Scam and there is no Scam.I have written many times here that if FII’s have not sold 69,000 cr since Jan last then we would have not seen this much down side.
I would like to ask everyone who are bearish that if FII would have not sold Rs 69000 cr has we have been at 12500?Another queation.....had FII sold Rs69000 cr due to slow down of our or due to Subprime LOSS?
I think one should be able to find the answer in this question....
Our growth is still around 8% GDP and by any standard it is still excellent.The results that have come uptill now is not atall that bad and remember that this results have come while Crude was at $140 and more.Now with Crude coming down and with that inflation will also come down we should see a good results from next quarter.
Now there are no such stocks remaining where investor can loose money as almost all stocks are down atleast by 50%.There is no more room for stocks to go down and hence it can be safely said that if you have not sold anything , don’t sell it now thinking that market can go to below 10k level.Ofcourse this is my view and one must take a call on his own.
Above 16000 level the bears will take our market to over 18k level on short covering and from then on we will be again in Bull Market according to the technical analyst .The charts are not exhibiting bullishness but everyone knows I do not look on charts.I know we had a trying time for last 6 months and I have been proved wrong on more then one occasion in this 6 months.So it can be everybody’s guess what to take from what I writes.Why I do not believe charts?Because they have proved wrong for the whole bull run.I remember I do have arguements with others at MMB when they use to give bearish call on base of charts and technicals and they have to often eat the word.I will only tell here that those who feels that they were able to see all these levels of 12k , then 16k, then 21k and also able to see the down levels from 21k to 12500, and also acted accordingly , as I assume that when a person sees all these he should have acted accordingly, then he must be the richest person in India.Maybe he says he is a small player even then he must have made millions as seeing all those levels upto 21k and also seeing 12500 levels can give multiple returns, by say atleast 15 times and not less.So if even one starts with 1 lac he will be at 15 lacs and more by now....
I see the valuations and see the situation.That is the bottom line that I am following.Huge investment is coming in Power sector, Water management,Telecom,Infra that we don’t need to look for export.More over with rupee depreciating that sector is also going to out perform ….viz: IT ….it will be the main beneficiary as I can’t speak more on other export oriented sector but in IT we are almost at par with USA.
Try to find companies with niche products and software which can give multiple returns in IT Viz:E -Commerce,E-business,animation,Media, Search Engine etc ,all these sector will grow with at over 40% year to year for next 3-4 years.Just heard that ADAG is taking over Fame India(Old Shringar Cinema) so watch out for media stocks like, BAG Films, Baba Arts , Grey Cell Entertainment etc.
Google has come out with a new browser ,named Google chrome and it is fast and looking nice.Anyone can down load it from internet and use it.It is a challenge to Microsoft for its Internet Explorer browser which we use.It is also a challenge to Fire Fox as well.
Comments:This is exactly written at my blog......
...
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
gmr infra, axis bank, punj, bhel, LT, HCC, JP Associates,Thermax, BEL,ril, gail,ABB will fly high....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600
Posted by :
panni
to-morrow is the day of gain,& intraday can be played,purchase GMR Infrastructure,axis bank 
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
to-morrow is the day of gain,& intraday can be played,purchase GMR Infrastructure,axis bank...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600
Posted by : jonas
Nightowl,
We may see a minor fall on mon/tues on GUSTAV fears to shed some gains of friday n US is closed on monday so no clues for tuesday.
Once gustav hurricane fears subside oil may tank below $ 110, anytime in the next 2 weeks.
Nifty has gained @ 15% in the past 1.5 months.
I am not an expert but i feel nifty will gain @ 15% in the first half of sep n then shed @ 10% in the later half but overall it will gain by +5 % by sep end n close @ 4500.
I will go long nifty now n short after it reaches 4800/5000 levels.
I will stick to my GUT feelings.
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
Hi radhikaji all your predictions for dow is amazing but the last lines which you add in your messages are not allowing me to take any action you should delete those lines....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
vam_aru
Don't just start buy the puts from tomorrow, wait for 3 or 4 days then buy it....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Udayan, This is my first reply to your market comments..
B\...
In reply to:
NSG waiver to give a sentiment boost to mkts
Posted by : MMB Messenger
It will be a sentimental leg up for sure for the markets. But beyond that I don’t think it will matter too much in the life of financial markets.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
ESPP :
Employee Stock Purchase Plan. A program that allows employees to purchase company stock at a discount to its fair market value.
07.09.2008
...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
reverse acquisition :
One way for a company to become publicly traded, by acquiring a public company and then installing its own management team and renaming the acquired company.
** Here the parent company is not publicly traded, before acquisition.
07.09.2008
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Udayan, This is my first reply to your market comments..
B\...
In reply to:
NSG waiver to give a sentiment boost to mkts
Posted by : MMB Messenger
It will be a sentimental leg up for sure for the markets. But beyond that I don’t think it will matter too much in the life of financial markets.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Lehman has holding in Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Cranes Software, Fedders Llyod, NIIT, Northgate Technologies, voltamp, mastek, triveni, Lakshmi Energy,Karuturi Networks, JP Associates. ...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Better to SELL those stocks where Lehman has good stake in order to BUY later! :)
If someone know, please share the information how to easily identify where Lehman has strong shares just like Bear sterns had in the past??
part 1
--
KDB's road to Lehman paved with pitfalls
Analysis: Stake could prove a long-term win or faded trophy deal
By Sue Chang, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:23 p.m. EDT Sept. 5, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Outside of Asia, Korea Development Bank is not a household brand. In fact, many in Korea, although familiar with the name, aren't quite sure what it does. That is likely to change if it succeeds in buying a stake in Lehman Brothers, according to analysts.
'Given that KDB is not already well established as a global/regional [investment banking] player and given Lehman's extensive IB franchise globally, we read KDB's response as a natural interest in a potential opportunity. In particular with relation to the Capital Market Consolidation Act, to be effective locally as of 2009, KDB could stand to benefit from the LEH's brand recognition, business know-how and talented human resources,' analysts at JPMorgan said in a recent research note.
Established in 1954 in the aftermath of the Korean War to supply capital to reconstruct and develop the Korean economy, KDB has, until now, quietly carried out its role as a policy bank.
Indeed, most thought KDB's plan to invest in Lehman (LEH: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc LEH 16.20, +1.03, +6.8%) was bust after Kwang-Woo Jun, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, publicly cautioned the state-run entity last week.
'We believe KDB should approach the deal with extreme caution. In principal, we feel that it is inappropriate for a public institution to take on so much risk or take the lead in such deals,' Jun said.
He added that although the government welcomes the opportunity for Korean financial institutions to globalize and seek new growth engines, such efforts should be undertaken with full risks in mind, given the financial uncertainties at the moment.
The way things usually work in a strictly-regulated market like Korea's, a financial regulator expressing doubts about a specific deal is akin to a death knell.
But one factor that may help explain why KDB's interest in Lehman remains alive despite the lack of government enthusiasm is the fact that Governor Euoo-Sung Min, the chief executive at KDB, is a former Lehman executive. He served as the investment bank's chief executive in Korea before taking up his current post.
'Min has a reputation of being a deal maker, a good deal maker,' said Abraham Kim, an analyst with Eurasia Group.
In the face of the government's resistance, Min reportedly has revised his proposal to buying a 25% stake for about $6 billion through a consortium rather than taking a 50% stake via a solo bid.
As of yet, there are no details on who may join the consortium, with most banks linked to a possible deal vehemently denying their involvement -- underscoring the risks inherent in such high-profile deals.
'[A]s with any acquisition, there could be risk of overpayment or a need for additional capital injection post-acquisition, and it could take more time to fully achieve synergies than has been factored in,' said the JPMorgan analysts.
The analysts are so negative on the potential pitfalls that they recommended investors avoid any banks involved in the deal.
'We believe any Korean banks/FHC that would partner with KDB in a potential deal could bear any potential acquisition risks along with KDB, and we would expect most of the benefits to be difficult to realize in the near term,' they said.
Pursuing Lehman through a consortium is more 'politically palatable' than KDB's original plan and one that the Korean government is less likely to block as it addresses the dual concern about excessive risk and complicating its privatization, according to Kim.
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
Hallo lovemeall26,
so its sometimes hate and many times love relationship..then its really good.. Most important thing about you, i find, is that you have a healthy mind.. Regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello pradesh,
Perhaps you will be surprised to know that HLN and me are old friends. I know him from the time he predicted nifty 3600 last year. At that time, he used to be laughed and scoffed at and I used to be the one who used to discuss it out on yahoo messenger with him. At that time, he was the joke of this board and he was a lonely man.And I was and still am a very good friend of the biggest bull on this board - Mr.Joetom. So I became friendly with Mr. Hindlevernet - the biggest bear of this board. And these two people provided me with valuable insights into the functioning of a bull and a bear and I then came to know how strongly they influence the markets. I used to study their gameplans etc etc very carefully.
Perhaps, you will not believe, but I still believe in what HLN says that nifty will see 3600, I started believing this from the 23rd of january 2008 after the huge crash. Then I started interacting with him a lot. His levels used to be good but unfortunately his timings were all wrong. And we future and options traders have a big disadvantage against us which is the time factor as you know. So after following him a couple of times I lost nicely in my puts in April and stopped following him totally and then started to use my gut feeling. Now after having indepth knowledge of the charts with the help on an online friend who had the patience to teach me charts for 23 days , everyday for four hours in the evening, I have become very confident in my trades and know the exact levels of entry and exits.
So,I became a little sceptical of Mr. HLN after april and also used to criticize him a lot when he went wrong. I know he deleted a few of my messages but thats a different story. But on a personal front, whatever I Know of him, he is a gentleman who is polite and knows what he is doing. Only thing is he goes drastically wrong in his timings. But these markets are so unpredictable, anyone can easily go wrong. I dont hold hard feelings against him though. Hence, I was not surprised to recieve five starts for two of my messages because I know he respects good technical analysis just as much as I do. If I find a good post, I too give ratings of five stars. Thats the way it should be. One should be open to criticism and praise at the same time. I hope this message clarifies any differences I hold with Mr. HLN.
regards
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
well we need to understand the long term implication of this deal , what this deal is going to have on energy requirement of a nation of the size of india ,if we were to look at long term perspective india is moving away from thermal power (which is the main source of energy ) to nuclear power which is a lot cheaper source of energy and moreover it will bring the global price of coal and other commodities down , since nuclear power is a lot cheaper source of energy it would bring effeciency in india in terms of lower cost of production the markets might see it as a short term tool whther it would reall bring in any investment etc but looking at longer term it will be a lot beneficial for the industry and the economy as a whole ...
In reply to:
Will NSG outcome, global cues really spook mkts next week?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
The markets may not have to wake up to bad cues from global markets on Monday morning. Another meeting is scheduled soon but so far there has been no conclusion at all out of the NSG meeting in Vienna. So that remains something that the market will react to either way on Monday morning.
Tracked by: 4 Boarders
Tau ji, programming could not satisfy me in 15 years, so I am rehearsing to pick stocks taking help from nursery rhymes. Here it is one for you :
One two buckle my shoe
Three, four, knock at the door
Five, six, pick up sticks
Seven, eight, lay them straight
Nine, ten, a big fat hen
Eleven, twelve, dig and delve
Thirteen, fourteen, maids a-courting
Fifteen, sixteen, maids in the kitchen
Seventeen, eighteen, maids in waiting
Nineteen, twenty, my plate's empty.
regards
TC
...
In reply to:
Are you a Long Term Investor ??
Posted by : keerthi
You can find good investment stocks from the computer programmed stock picks from less strain and more gain. If you have internet connection it is added benefit for learning from other sources.
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
Hello pradesh,
Perhaps you will be surprised to know that HLN and me are old friends. I know him from the time he predicted nifty 3600 last year. At that time, he used to be laughed and scoffed at and I used to be the one who used to discuss it out on yahoo messenger with him. At that time, he was the joke of this board and he was a lonely man.And I was and still am a very good friend of the biggest bull on this board - Mr.Joetom. So I became friendly with Mr. Hindlevernet - the biggest bear of this board. And these two people provided me with valuable insights into the functioning of a bull and a bear and I then came to know how strongly they influence the markets. I used to study their gameplans etc etc very carefully.
Perhaps, you will not believe, but I still believe in what HLN says that nifty will see 3600, I started believing this from the 23rd of january 2008 after the huge crash. Then I started interacting with him a lot. His levels used to be good but unfortunately his timings were all wrong. And we future and options traders have a big disadvantage against us which is the time factor as you know. So after following him a couple of times I lost nicely in my puts in April and stopped following him totally and then started to use my gut feeling. Now after having indepth knowledge of the charts with the help on an online friend who had the patience to teach me charts for 23 days , everyday for four hours in the evening, I have become very confident in my trades and know the exact levels of entry and exits.
So,I became a little sceptical of Mr. HLN after april and also used to criticize him a lot when he went wrong. I know he deleted a few of my messages but thats a different story. But on a personal front, whatever I Know of him, he is a gentleman who is polite and knows what he is doing. Only thing is he goes drastically wrong in his timings. But these markets are so unpredictable, anyone can easily go wrong. I dont hold hard feelings against him though. Hence, I was not surprised to recieve five starts for two of my messages because I know he respects good technical analysis just as much as I do. If I find a good post, I too give ratings of five stars. Thats the way it should be. One should be open to criticism and praise at the same time. I hope this message clarifies any differences I hold with Mr. HLN.
regards
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pradesh
Hi lovemeall26,
Bravo !! u got five stars from whom? HLN!!!! ..You must have heard of a movie Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide.. I somehow remembered that.. any way hit and run is converted into hate and (now) love strategy... Noted your views..Regards
Tracked by: 4 Boarders
You can find good investment stocks from the computer programmed stock picks from less strain and more gain. If you have internet connection it is added benefit for learning from other sources....
In reply to:
Are you a Long Term Investor ??
Posted by : TrueCompanion
But this does not seem to fit anywhere in food, habit & shelter chain. Atleast I am not aware of any computer based picking.
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
Hello DU sir,
Its such a pleasure to meet you here after so long. One thing we share in common is that both of us are bare-bone FnO traders. I also do options but in less quantity. But delivery, I only do it in sugar stocks.
Its sad that you do not follow the nifty. Now, here comes the difference between us. I do not follow the sensex - lol. In fact, for many days, I do not even know what sensex levels opened at and closed at. But nifty, I remember quite a bit of numbers by heart. I personally feel ,the nifty futures gives the exact level of sentiments and technical levels of this market. For instance, a premium on the nifty shows its bullishness and inversely a discount shows its bearishness. The amount of discount or premium gives me an idea about the extent of the emotional quotient. This is not possible with the sensex. For instance, during bullish phases, nifty trades at premiums above 30 rupees and last time we were around 3800 levels, it was trading in huge discounts of rs. 50 and above. I hope you get my point. I will suggest you to follow the nifty like a hawk , which will improve your trading skills greatly, although I know you are pretty adept at that. When I see the nifty going up fast, I instantly go long on my future lots and the nifty pulls up other stocks along with it.
This analysis I did of the nifty making the head and shoulders is more or less in its final stages of formation. If we do not cross 4650 this time and start going down again from there and when we break 4220-4240, this pattern gets final confirmation - please note. Otherwise, there is no guarantee that this head and shoulders will definately play out its bearish note.
I am sure you must have understood. There is no need to thank me for sharing my thoughts. I have learnt much much from this board and am more than happy to give it back what I learnt on my personal front.
regards
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : DUstocks
Very interesting lovemeall26 !
I do lament my ignorance of the "anatomy of the NIFTY being".
However, regardless of whatever 'numero-graphic' elements of technical charting facilitate interpreting NIFTY movements, I do find your description very intersting (for a bare-bone FnO trader like me).
I hope and wish your conclusions prove accurate too (within permissible limits of course). No slight intended all, and thanks for sharing. Regards, DU.
Tracked by: 78 Boarders
Error: He still continues.......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pranky
Ostybhai is osteoporous... his msg is very much there on this very thread , BUT before that chk my msg to him..... Jus go to his home-page... Simple.... & chk the whole conversation.... Simpler.... isnt it??
And lemme inform U, Bhai HLN has this dity habit of deleting msgs that are slightly not in his favour... even after the Mod has warned him, he still continuous.... Now if this msg gets deleted as well..... Jus remeber to ALWAYS keep a copy of ur msg, whenevr U are writing on this thread...
Cheers!!
