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Oil & Gas - Sector
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NDIAN OIL CORP
Analysis of activity through 9/5/2008
close: 446
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. Market activity analysis suggests that long trades put on outside.The current market price activity is Strongly Bullish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the long side.
If already holding long positions, we would look to partial profits any retracement to will lead to 390.Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the 413 area.
Suggested standing placement of fail-safe stops...
If Long -- exit all contracts at ... 390.
If Short -- exit all contracts at ... 490....
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Oil prices fall below $105 on concerns over slowing energy demand and a strong US currency, while the market awaited next week's OPEC meeting on crude output levels.
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Lets wish they get good reserves here also and create a good shareholder value for their investors.
Colombia\'s upstream regulator Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos today said Reliance Industries Ltd. has started exploration activities in its offshore blocks in the oil-rich Latin American country and will drill its first well in 2010.
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It is an uphill task but lets hope it gives an answer to the energy needs of ONGC and the country.
Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Murli Deora today said he hopes ONGC Videsh Ltd will hopefully conclude the Imperial Energy Corp Plc. Acquisition deal within four to five weeks.
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ONGC may have to induct a local joint venture partner to give effect to its proposed acquisition of London Stock Exchange-listed Imperial Energy Corp Plc. ONGC could rope in a Russian partner, most likely state-run Rosneft to ensure quicker approvals from Moscow. The company\'s move to acquire Imperial could still face several challenges including a possible counter bid threat to its 1.4 bln sterling, or $2.6 bln, offer, and making the financial institutions with significant investment in Imperial agree to its offer. On the financing of the possible deal, it is expected that it would be entirely funded through debt on OVL\'s books.
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Indraprastha Gas the sole disributer of CNG & PNG in NCR Delhi has done a good job for past many years. It has excellent financials and its boottom line has increased consistently by more than 25% a year. With the increase in diesel and petrol price, many vehicles are converting to CNG DUE TO SAVING OF ALMOST 70-75%. There are serpentine queues at any IGL distribution station and the management is taking steps to increase the supply to meet ever increasing demand. CNG is also becoming popular due to pollution concerns. Approximately 5000 vehicles are converting to CNG in NCR Delhi per month. EPS for the year 07-08 was Rs 12.5 and likely to increase to Rs 16-17 during the year 08-09. I consider IGL a strong investment buy with a target price of Rs 190-200 withen next six to nine months....
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Industrial users of diesel may end up paying a little over Rs 22 for the product compared to retail customers if the proposal of the public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) finds its way.
In a concept paper submitted to the Government on proposed differential diesel pricing for direct consumers (such as the Railways and power sector) following a Petroleum Ministry’s request, the OMCs have suggested a price of Rs 57 a litre for such consumers, almost 63 per cent higher than Rs 34.80 a litre price for retail consumers.
At a recent meeting convened by the Petroleum Minister, Mr Murli Deora, the OMCs were asked to come back with specific suggestions to tackle the situation arising out of unusually high consumption of diesel along with information on diesel usage in various sectors.
In fact, the high powered committee constituted by the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, has also proposed differential pricing for diesel.
economic value
The three OMCs – Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation – were of the view that the time has come to implement differential pricing of diesel for direct consumers, by offering the product at its economic value, industry sources said.
The sector-wise consumption growth of diesel showed that for first quarter of 2008-09 (April-June), the power sector saw a phenomenal increase in demand by 152.4 per cent (53,000 tonne) followed by fisheries 39.4 per cent and marine 39.2 per cent. The total consumption growth by direct consumers was 10.4 per cent compared with the same period last year while retail sales saw a growth of 11.6 per cent. The combined growth registered in both the categories was 11.4 per cent during the period.
Sources said that the industrial units find subsidised diesel cheaper than other deregulated products such as fuel oil and naphtha. This has led to increase in demand and forcing the refiners to resort to imports to meet the requirements.
Besides, differential pricing for diesel consumers would also help to reduce under-realisation
-BL...
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The decline in world oil prices should bring some cheer to the government which has been battling inflation and an economic slowdown for some months now. From a peak of $147 a barrel in early July oil now trades at around $112. In July alone it fell by $20. However, these are early days to conclude whether the falling prices are part of a downtrend or are momentary.
The distinction between a relatively permanent decline — taking prices to, say, below $100 a barrel — or a temporary dip is important. If it is the former, it is good news for the global economy.
No distinct trend
Living standards across the world can be improved. If, on the other hand, global oil starts moving up again, deep rooted concerns as to how much high it will go will keep central banks and governments on their toes.
One difficulty with the oil markets relates to forecasting the prices. Experts disagree fundamentally on the range within which they will move even in the short-term. For a slightly longer period, some see prices crossing the $200-mark a barrel and moving up further. Those who had predicted a fall, admittedly a smaller number, probably did not get their timing right.
Even the commodity exchanges and oil futures markets have disappointed. The spot markets did not give any clue about the recent flare up. Today while oil is at around $112 a barrel, the futures markets continue to indicate higher prices.
Speculation, widely believed but not proved to be a principal factor behind the phenomenal rise in oil prices, is present even when prices decline. It appears that plenty of speculative money is now betting on a downturn in prices. However, it is not speculators but fundamentals that should guide any assessment of price movements.
Demand from India and China are expected to remain strong.
Supply constraints
Although the U.S. and other developed countries have curtailed their consumption, they are yet to build up their inventories to the required safe levels. This would indicate some large buying by the U.S. in the days to come. Disturbances in Nigeria and more recently in the Caspian Sea region in central Asia have cast a big shadow over supplies. It is noteworthy too that even with historically high prices, oil supplies have been very slow to respond. This is attributed to structural rigidities of the hydrocarbon sector. Long gestation periods and environmental concerns, for instance, have hampered quicker response by way of capacity additions to the price stimulus.
Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike its oil production to recent record levels is said to be one of the principal reasons for the softening prices. Reportedly, the world’s largest oil producer along with a few other OPEC countries has as much interest in preventing a further steep escalation in oil prices as the big consumers. That primarily arises from a belief that demand for hydrocarbons will come down if prices stay high.
To some extent this has already happened in the West. Besides, alternative energy sources and previously unviable projects within the hydrocarbon sector are beginning to look attractive at current price levels.
Softer oil prices are certainly good news for the Indian economy especially as many other commodities are also getting cheaper at the global level.
-hindu
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See crude at USD20 er barrel in coming years. Say within 3-4 years of time. It is believed that Those icebergs & sands in Canada, alska has high quantity of unexplored crude reserves which could be brought under explored zone....
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Reliance Industries is in talks with state refiners for sale of crude oil it plans to start pumping from its eastern offshore KG-D6 block from next month.
The company is in advanced talks with Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Chennai Refinery and Kochi Refineries for sale of 34,000 barrels per day of oil it will start producing from the gas-rich KG-D6 block on Krishna Godavari basin from September.
\"We do not intend to use the D6 oil in our Jamnagar refinery and are close to tying up sales with state-refiners,\" a company source said.
The company is investing USD 2.234 billion in developing the MA-1 and MA-2 oil fields in the predominantly gas-rich block.
Oil reserves in the block are estimated at 53.5 million barrels and production will last 11 years, beginning with 20,000 bpd in first year and rising to 30,000 bpd in second year before beginning to decline.
Sources said the Aker Smart-1 floating production storage and offloading system (FPSO) is expected on the field any day now. It may take 4-6 weeks to install at the field and oil production will begin soon after.
The FPSO, contracted for USD 733 million, will help eliminate the need for piping the oil to the shore for onward transportation to refineries. Oil tankers can directly load at the FPSO and carry the oil to the destined refineries.
Reliance is separately investing USD 5.2 billion in phase I of its gas field development plan, the first output of which is expected around the same time as oil. et-...
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A drop in global crude prices does not offer the government any immediate scope for reduction in domestic fuel prices, although India\'s crude basket price has fallen over 8 per cent in two months. But there is no scope for reduction in domestic retail prices Crude oil prices have fallen to below $113 a barrel this week from all-time high of $147 per barrel witnessed last month. The basket of crude oil India buys averaged $109.88 per barrel, down from $119 a barrel price on June 4 when petrol, diesel and domestic cooking gas prices were raised.
However, retailers Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum continue to lose money on fuel sales, Deora said. \"There still are huge under-recoveries (on fuel sales). I don\'t see how we can reduce retail prices when our companies continue to lose money.\" Fuel prices in India are pegged at $68 per barrel, much lower than the current prices in international market. \"Our retail prices are pegged much lower (current international crude prices). There is no scope for reduction in petrol and diesel prices as of now,\" he said.
The Government had in June raised petrol price by Rs 5 per litre, diesel by Rs 3 a litre and domestic LPG by Rs 50 per cylinder. The fall in international prices would help cut down on the projected revenue loss. At the time of June 5 increase in fuel prices, the revenue loss on sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene was put at Rs 2,46,600 crore for the full year.
The country\'s diesel demand is growing at an unexpectedly high rate of 23-24 percent, causing shortages in some regions, Oil Minister Murli Deora said on Wednesday. Deora also told reporters that the country had no plans to cut fuel prices despite the fall in global crude prices as government-set prices were still much lower than the market. Oil minister Murli Deora is to seek answers from heads of state-owned oil marketing companies on Wednesday on reports of diesel shortages and resultant long queues at petrol pumps in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh. Deora\'s move follows complaints from several Members of Parliament cutting across party lines. The policymakers have written to the minister saying the companies were cutting down on supplies with the aim of reducing their losses.
Diesel is the highest-selling fuel and the companies are losing Rs 23.23 on each litre for selling at government-capped rates. On their part, executives of oil companies explain that there is no shortage of diesel and they were releasing additional tankers daily. They attributed reports of some pumps running out of stocks to a spur in demand coming from increased use for running generators and small industries switching to diesel from fuel-oil due to skewed pricing of the motor fuel.
In 2007-08, the country consumed 47 million tonnes of diesel. This reflected an 11% increase in demand over the previous year. In 2006-07 , diesel demand recorded a growth of 6-7 %. Against these figures, demand in the first four months of 2008-09 has already risen 20% month-on-month, according to latest industry data. \"There is no shortage of diesel.
Demand has increased by 20-22 % despite the slowdown. We had planned our production estimating a 12% demand increase in mind. But growth in demand has far exceeded as huge quantities of diesel are being diverted to non-transport and nonagricultural use as it has become cheaper than other industrial fuels,\'\' a top executive of one oil marketing firm said.
One of factors pushing diesel demand is shortage of electricity. With huge parts of the country suffering outages for hours on end-sometimes stretching to 24 hours-existing generators are being run for longer hours and more establishments are adding new ones. The increase in the number of malls too has contributed to diesel demand as they all depend on captive generators for power. Simultaneously, small units have started using diesel as fuel because the government\'s pricing policy has made it cheaper than other industrial fuels.TNN/ET-...
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Hi,
Wednesday August 13, 01:10 PM
India\'s diesel demand soars, no fuel price cut - min
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India\'s diesel demand is growing at an unexpectedly high rate of 23-24 percent, the oil minister said on Wednesday, causing shortages in some regions. ...
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Oil fell to a three-month low on Tuesday, dropping for the third day in a row, after the International Energy Agency predicted supplies would be more adequate and Russia called a halt to the conflict in Georgia.
US crude fell to a session low of $112.48 a barrel, the lowest since early May, and was trading $1.32 lower at $113.13 by 1132 GMT. London Brent crude was $1.29 lower at $111.38.
The IEA, the energy adviser to 27 industrialised countries, left its demand growth outlook virtually unchanged for this year, while raising its 2009 forecasts slightly. But it cut its estimate for 2008 demand for oil from OPEC and predicted supplies would grow.
\"Demand for OPEC oil is going to be lower than its production capacity. So the market is looking forward to seeing an inventory build, \" Olivier Jakob with Petromatrix said.
US crude has fallen by about $35 from its record high above $147 struck in July.
Oil markets have remained under pressure in spite of disruption from the key Turkish port of Ceyhan following an explosion at the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.
The explosion was not linked to a five-day war between Russia and Georgia, through which the BTC link runs.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to the military operations in Georgia on Tuesday just before French President Nicolas Sarkozy was to hold peace talks in Moscow.
A stronger US dollar has added to the impetus to the oil sell-off and other dollar-denominated commodities, which become more expensive for non-dollar investors as the US currency gains strength.
The US dollar rose to a six-month high against the euro, which has weakened since European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week the euro zone economy was slowing more than policy-makers had expected.
FIN EXP-
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Hi,
Pls read the" volatility down"
In my previous message sent
Regds...
In reply to:
OIL Crash
Posted by :
MOKSHAG
gv,sorry to enter uninvited in this thread but couldnt stop as i was one of the persons who too wrote on reasons for such a big fall in the mkts after 10th jan,2008
i repeat a few lines which i an gather
USA n European markets dont give more n big opprtunities to FFIS for multiplying their wealth so fast n so soon
its the emerging markets where opportunities for investments are too big
before they enter these markets they charge the sentiments of investors and traders to such an extent that investors see it now or never opportunity and then they pump their funds in a big way
Having gained so much the try to find the reasons to exit without offending the markets and christmas isone such time,they can exit safely with the excuse of returning back with a bang,but never come
FIIS cant park their funds for a long time ie more than 7 days without any active prsence by themselves
They withdraw allof their investments and the mkts here or in emergingmkts like india start falling n then enter in arena their agents like MARK FABER,whose job only is to create a fear psychosis that indian economy is a baloon n the groewth story is a gimmick
with this concept n stretegy the markets fall unexpectedly
Now their counter part play a oil n commodity game n clear the ground for fresh entry n invest heavily once again n play a game of rise n fall keeping growth story intact
When mkts are fully ripened,omes the christmas again n cycle will go on
Not only FIIS but their govts too are also involved in this game and this is known as economic terrorism
Its the money game Thus justfying the saying buy low sell high
We the indians are followers of RAMA,MAHAVEER,BUDDHA,GURUNANAK,KRISHNA and so many lords,forget the injury made to us and welcome them once again
There comes an argument,whther indian funds can take care of mkts?Yes i believe as this year our mutual funds govt/non govt were flush with idle funds
after all whats the yearly ollection of LIC and other private sector insurance cos and mutual funds?if you recollect,our funds only have started buying after this great fall and now only fiis made entry again
so in the nutshell,crude will go down for a while and again go up to old or near old level n cycle will go on
RESULT:OUR RETAIL INVESTORS WILL BE LOOSERS
QUESTION:Whether our broking ommunity lose or gain?they dont lose because they get heft fee for such transations fom these flight by christmas FIIS
JAI HIND 
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Dear MOKSHAG,
You made a good point
Yes very true FIIs are not angels and they manipulate the market
The classical example is South Asian crisis sponsored by SOROS
a few years back.
But now things are changing for India
The investment from Middle class are increasing and MFs are getting more funds and becoming bigger.Off course they will take time to reach the levels of US/Europe MFs but eventually we will get there
As the players increases the different interest group will emerge and this will bring the volatility in the market
What we need to be careful is the market scam
It also happens US and other places but they recover faster,but for us it will be severe blow because our size is smaller in comparison
My view,How Indian market will perform next 5 years
Even if we grow at 7% the mass increase will be substantial
Consumption of 200 million plus middle class,this the FIIs and others cannot take away
Crude--Increased prices will dampen the economy/Market--This is the "joker in the pack" one has to live with this
So i see opportunity to make wealth in 5 years (good time frame)
If one can carefully spread in to different asset class the rewards will be good
People are commenting real estate may not grow (bearish)
I have contrarian view,because land cannot be created only developed
The question --Do we have sufficient developed lands?
The answer is no,we need more and more,obviously the demand will move up and the prices.
Now i am investing in the following ares
1 Cherry picking of stocks
2 MF investment (balance risk)
3 bargain deal on real estate
4 Education of my children
I feel confident my strategy will work
Best Reds
GV
...
In reply to:
OIL Crash
Posted by : MOKSHAG
gv,sorry to enter uninvited in this thread but couldnt stop as i was one of the persons who too wrote on reasons for such a big fall in the mkts after 10th jan,2008
i repeat a few lines which i an gather
USA n European markets dont give more n big opprtunities to FFIS for multiplying their wealth so fast n so soon
its the emerging markets where opportunities for investments are too big
before they enter these markets they charge the sentiments of investors and traders to such an extent that investors see it now or never opportunity and then they pump their funds in a big way
Having gained so much the try to find the reasons to exit without offending the markets and christmas isone such time,they can exit safely with the excuse of returning back with a bang,but never come
FIIS cant park their funds for a long time ie more than 7 days without any active prsence by themselves
They withdraw allof their investments and the mkts here or in emergingmkts like india start falling n then enter in arena their agents like MARK FABER,whose job only is to create a fear psychosis that indian economy is a baloon n the groewth story is a gimmick
with this concept n stretegy the markets fall unexpectedly
Now their counter part play a oil n commodity game n clear the ground for fresh entry n invest heavily once again n play a game of rise n fall keeping growth story intact
When mkts are fully ripened,omes the christmas again n cycle will go on
Not only FIIS but their govts too are also involved in this game and this is known as economic terrorism
Its the money game Thus justfying the saying buy low sell high
We the indians are followers of RAMA,MAHAVEER,BUDDHA,GURUNANAK,KRISHNA and so many lords,forget the injury made to us and welcome them once again
There comes an argument,whther indian funds can take care of mkts?Yes i believe as this year our mutual funds govt/non govt were flush with idle funds
after all whats the yearly ollection of LIC and other private sector insurance cos and mutual funds?if you recollect,our funds only have started buying after this great fall and now only fiis made entry again
so in the nutshell,crude will go down for a while and again go up to old or near old level n cycle will go on
RESULT:OUR RETAIL INVESTORS WILL BE LOOSERS
QUESTION:Whether our broking ommunity lose or gain?they dont lose because they get heft fee for such transations fom these flight by christmas FIIS
JAI HIND
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