No Mr. Guest It depends on what side of fence u are, If somebody is already long with losses he wud vote I wud buy immediately, If somebody is short he wud say I wud buy below, If somebody is having no positions but want to go long then only he wud say that I am going to buy at 2000....

I wud definitely not investing money in Nifty (with a mid term perspective, for a correction in a bear market) unless and until the Heavyweights like Reliance, ONGC, Bharti, NTPC, LT, BHEL, RPL, HDFC etc which have combined weightage close to 40% and which have defied logic and still are trading close to max 1 yr lows when all other scrips are trading altleast below 2-3 yrs low, We are close to election in US and normally the markets there rally 10 -20% 2 months ahead of election, but if even they cant create a rally (artificial) I am quite doubtful of our very own Govt which I think is manipulating some stocks to maintain the Nifty levels unless elections take place over here. I wud be thinking of trading long with a perspective of getting 25 - 30% returns in a months or two once the above said stocks drop to appropriate levels, maybe close to Feb or March 2009 when the elections wud be announced and the Govt wud in need of good market conditions....

So well as I said that Most Emerging Markets are at Mid term trading bottom, they are at trading bottom, Also it proves that The Markets are manipulated and not free as everybody thinks. The Proof is that on Technicals (the Manipulation theory) the Indices shud have hit mid term bottom at those lows, but look at yesterdays move, the hang seng after hitting 1000 points low, waited for sensex to open and some stocks in our sensex to achieve there mid term bottom and then after interval it opened up and cleared all the intraday losses, the Dow opened up but intraday started to fall, if not for the talk of forming an govt agency to stop the credit crisis and banning short sales, it wud have been quite negative which in turn wud have dragged Asian markets even lower and maybe Sensex wud have hit 6k by this year only. So all in all The markets are rigged, bull markets are a cheating, the manipulators are the persons from US, and if the manipulators themselves can face subprime what the condition of the followers wud be has to be seen, so dont ever invest thinking that US money is going to come to Emeging Markets, keep in mind they might be debt ladden, they might not be growing, but 30-40% stocks in Emerging Markets are hold by FII's who are from US, Europe and Japan. Lastly we have not hit a bottom were long term ivestment cud be initiated, I may be wrong too, but uptil now it doesnt look like that we have a long term bottom. ...

Most Emerging Asian Markets seem to have formed a trading mid term bottom JKSE has already formed a bottom at 1600, Hang seng might just have formed a bottom close to 16.5k, Kospi might be 4-5% away from the bottom, Brazilian bovespa and Mexico IPC have still to form the bottom, so what does that imply for us, Nifty might form a trading bottom close to 3700. So some list for buying cud be
STER (close to 400), ICICI bank close to 500, Tata Motors, RCOM, MTNL, Ambuja Cements, etc. While still to be hammered stocks cud be RPL, Reliance, LT, bhels, Bhartis, HDFC's, NTPC, ONGC, Nalco etc, but they might consolidate when the others are moving the Nifty and then the next fall might be on there back, so all in all the short sellers shud hedge themselves by buying Nifty Calls preferably next month for every short positions on to be hamerred stocks. Nifty after 3700 might go to 4100....

Joh Pakda gaya woh chor hai, joh bach gaya woh siyana hai.ICICI ki chori pakdi gayi hai, HDFC Bank aur baki sab sectors ki chori abhi pakdi jani hai. I mean to say if HDFC Bank which has risen more significantly then ICICI Bank, which trades at premium over ICICI, HDFC which has reported (slighlty) better results than ICICI is remaining safe while ICICI has made mistake, then defintely ICICI has been caught while HDFC still has to be. The World has only seen American subprime uptil now, Emerging Markets Subprime has not shown its head uptil now....

Crude has gone below 95 currently 96 has hit stoplosses, time to book losses and exit slowly and steadily towards 98 - 100...

Buddy,
Actually I think Book Value is the one of the most important criteria while going for the stock, I wud explain
Aban offshore has almost doubled its earning from March 2006 to March 2008 so its classified as high growth story, At 2008 tops it was trading at 30 time its Book Value, and app 170 PE, now its EPS was 33 that time, now suppose we add the earnings for 5 yrs at a growth rate of 40%, we wud be adding app 530 to the book value which wud be then app just above 700. So one who has invested in Aban is not getting even his capital back in 5 yrs (This is if we ignore that aban is trading on the bourses and it cud have moved from 5600 to 10K or 2ks as happened with aban).
Basically investing in a stock with low P/BV but comparatively less growth potential as compared to investing in a stock with High P/BV but comparatively high growth potential is as lending to Prime Category borrower against a subprime Category borrower, and the world has seen the effects of subprime lending and leverage. So again I say HIGH P/BV stocks are a must avoid. Hope so I have converyed the message.
...

Gud to see that ppl understand the underlying human psychology that go in market... true for any market! Oil has cracked beautifully... well below 90 USD... As always, no BS expert is talking about that now! :) Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

So well as I said that Most Emerging Markets are at Mid term trading bottom, they are at trading bottom, Also it proves that The Markets are manipulated and not free as everybody thinks. The Proof is that on Technicals (the Manipulation theory) the Indices shud have hit mid term bottom at those lows, but look at yesterdays move, the hang seng after hitting 1000 points low, waited for sensex to open and some stocks in our sensex to achieve there mid term bottom and then after interval it opened up and cleared all the intraday losses, the Dow opened up but intraday started to fall, if not for the talk of forming an govt agency to stop the credit crisis and banning short sales, it wud have been quite negative which in turn wud have dragged Asian markets even lower and maybe Sensex wud have hit 6k by this year only. So all in all The markets are rigged, bull markets are a cheating, the manipulators are the persons from US, and if the manipulators themselves can face subprime what the condition of the followers wud be has to be seen, so dont ever invest thinking that US money is going to come to Emeging Markets, keep in mind they might be debt ladden, they might not be growing, but 30-40% stocks in Emerging Markets are hold by FII's who are from US, Europe and Japan. Lastly we have not hit a bottom were long term ivestment cud be initiated, I may be wrong too, but uptil now it doesnt look like that we have a long term bottom. ...

yes, you are right. But emerging market subprime may affect that much badly as US subprime because quantum of exposure may not be that much bigger. If this thing happens then our market may bottom out (at least rate sensitives as they have been already badly hammered). But anything can happen but not in a hurry...

Crude has gone below 95 currently 96 has hit stoplosses, time to book losses and exit slowly and steadily towards 98 - 100...

dear me2_4india, I am afraid comparing this with sub prime category may not be the right way of looking at it. Though i never followed Aban, pls let me tell you that 170 PE is toomuch by any standards even when the EPS got doubled. If Aban\\`s bottom line has to move up by 40% on annualized basis for the next 5 years, i wouldnt mind giving a PE lesser than or equal to 40. So the stock could be an investment bet (assuming that 40% eps growth is assured in the next 5 years) at a price of Rs. 1320 ( 33eps multiplied by 40PE)or anything lesser than that with an investment horizon of 3 to 5 years. This works absolutely fine eventhough market price to book value is slightly higher. regards ...

me2_4india,please see book value of GOLDYN TECHNO N BOOK VALUE The co was known as paradyn tech earlier book value is the lowest preferred criteria for investment,thats what i have learnt n is only a safety parameter when you have to fall back upon...

dear me2_4india, What Gaba and you told are almost the same in different ways. I agree with you on everything expect the book value aspect which i feel can be safely ignored when a stock grows at a higher price. As long as PE is lesser than the expected growth rate in EPS and there is a clear visibility for EPS growth in the next 3 to 5 ears or so one can safely ignore the high market price to book value ratio. Other than this what ever you told was right and it is no different from that of Gaba\\`s. It is good atleast few people like you and Gaba are making few meaningful discussions in a healthy manner. regards...