Offline
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
Market Analysis - Technical View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
When our RBI relaxed SLR many banks did not avail fully the available funds. If the liquidity increses,it will make available a sum of 60% of the needs,bankers say. Who are going tobe benefited in the stock market? Truly I do not know whether the individual is getting any benefits. As for industries, the lending rates are not reduced. The production figures will comedown and create increase in prices . The poor supply will be facing higher demand. you can see it in the IIP figures released today.
Those who do trading, margins are proportionately payable to the decrease in CMP and for that the banks will ask for more security to enhance the overdraft. Failing which the trader will sell the holding, to cover the difference. The trader should provide more margin money and for that provide more security to the bankers to avail OD. In a bear market he will not opt either but to sell his holding.
The main issue is revolving around the banks who have foreign exchange transaction or branches in another country. With the release of the cut in CRR they get more money and they can buy the dollors or pounds or euro to strenthen their branches in foreign countries and transactions. Otherwise, the image is lost.
As I am US and have interest in Foreign exchange dealings, I know how the branches of Indian banks sending calls to the head offices in India, to arrange for funds, to strengthen their kitty. This you would have noted that the cut in CRR has not reduced the decrease in index and infact it bagan to increase in an hour after knowing the cut. Only banks that shored dollors, like SBI advanced from minus to plus in the CMP. This is not peculiar to India.
Iceland went to the extent of nationalising the banks, to instil confidence as many English and Americal food ball players had their wealth accumulated there. When thei cheques could not be paid, the Govt. intervened. A small country. How long it can pull on. Yesterday Russia closed the market for the week.
So let us not think that the higher liquidity is directly made available to the traders and a trader will be tempted to avail it for margin cover in a bear market. There was rumour for an hour here in USA that The UK Govt. kas taken over all their banks which was later officially denied. The fiscal crisis has spread widely now in Europe as all those banks have banked their funds in US banks.
Just think about it. If CRR is expected to play a major role in a bear market and to help the trader and investors, why should the index show a fall of over 800points in sensex and 220 points in nifty.
I solicit your comments and have my views corrected.
v.krishnamoorthy...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
-Q-
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
-UQ-
Sensex - 8500
Regards,
Sri...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by :
Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT. 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
No need to wait.. It hit 3198 today below 3200. This market is falling so sharply, that we do not have to wait. Just Like super fast..... Train.... When Sensex it self is in hurry to fall, we do not need to wait much!!!...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by :
bullaju
You cant wait for nifty to below 3200, even if it come to the level I think 2008 will not saw the day. I think before that we will again see 4200 or higher by the end of Nov`08
Nifty Low today is 3198........Just 21 points away from the Bottom suggested by me............ Sensex looks bottomed out or soon will!!!...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
BULLET narendranainani.blogspot.
MARKET TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON GLOBAL MOOD
BSE Sensex(10527.85) and Nifty(3279.95) closed 16% and 14.1% down last week.Inflation was at 10.88 v/s 11.99 last week.Indusrial Production nos.came 1.3%v/s 10.9%.Crude oil was at 87$.ReserveBank had cut CRR by150 basis point to boost the liquidity..Support for sensex is 9750 and for Nifty 3050.Resistance for Sensex is 11000 and Nifty is at 3450. Selling of FII continued this week also.Nifty put-call ratio was 0.50.Nifty 3700 call added open interest.Hindalco and NTPC added open interest.
Strategy for Future Option players.
1)NIFTY(3279.95) Lot Size-50 Shares.
Buy one call option of October month strike price 3300@205 Rs.
Sell one call option of October month strike price 3500@115 Rs.
Premium Paid=205*50=10250.00 Rs.
Premium Received=115*50=5750.00 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=10250-5750=4500.00 Rs.
Maximum Profit=3500-3300=200*50=10000-4500=5500.00 Rs
Maximum Loss=4500 Rs.
Break-even=3390 Rs.
2)Ranbaxy(292) October month future-Lot Size 800 shares.
Buy one lot of Ranbaxy October month future@292
Sell one call option of Ranbaxy October month strike price320@10.25 Rs.
Premium Received=10.25*800=8200.00 Rs.
Max Profit=320-292=28+10.25=38.25*800=30600.00 Rs.
Max loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea
1)UnionBank(145.95)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)IOB(87.35)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
In the long term we are all dead....
In reply to:
Will Nifty50 hit 33000 and Bse 30 hit 107400
Posted by :
amarakbar
Dear Friends,
Do not get shocked.
I am definitely not writing from home for mentally retarded people.
This is my own personal view based on my limited knowledge and study of INDIAN stock market.
Call it Vipul Lashkari Theory if you want to name it.
Forget this message after reading it if you do not like it, if you see any LOGIC in it, just save it or print it for FUTURE use.
Indian stock market has seen ups and downs with periods of high volatility and sideways moves called corrections.
Basic theme is GROWTH.
Basic assumption is we will continue to grow for next 15 years.
Bse 30 index has made alltime high of 21206 and Nifty50 has made alltime high of around 6500 in January 2008 .
From there today on 9 October 2008 we are at bse30 10740 low and nifty50 around 3300 low made on 8 Oct 2008.
My theory is,
We have touched significant bottom .
We will be in sideways move now onwards.
Extreme short term we will see significant upmove till last week of 2009 January or 1st week of February 2009 from current lows.
In next 18 months time that is, by April 2010 we will observe DOUBLE TOP formation in nifty 50 and bse 30 index.
Then onwards we will have sideways move for FEW YEARS .
Next top will be 33000 for nifty50 and 107400 for bse 30 index by year 2023-2024. That is 15 years away from today.
Basic theme is, we will have periods of inflation and recession but ultimately higher level of prices will come.
Ask your grandpa if he is still there , what was price of gold or 1 acre land or 100 kg wheat.
The lower levels which prices leave behind, have never come back.
After corrections there is always a new high .
Trillion dollar question is , how to play these periods.
My view is, RIDE THE TREND.
How ! Answer is, follow basic rules.
Buy above open with stoploss at open, sell below open with stoploss at open .
Apply it to yearly charts, quarterly charts, monthly charts, weekly and daily charts for long, medium, short and extreme short term plays.
Simple 3 period moving average should also be your guide, its value and direction will help you.
Think about return on investnment if your money if invested at 10 percent return per annum compounded yearly , 100 rs will become 417.72 rs at end of 15 years. a 4 times return whereas this theory suggests 10 times return.
Think about it.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Oh Sorry I was in a hurry in the morning so forget to add that what I said means first Sensex wud complete the price correction and then start the timewise correction that means ur said targets maybe not seen by persons retiring right now (close to 57yrs) if they are going to leave max 100 yrs and if possible persons who have just became eligible to vote just now might not see the said targets in there lifespan. ...
In reply to:
Will Nifty50 hit 33000 and Bse 30 hit 107400
Posted by : me2_4india
So well Vipulbhai agian here to argue with u, well as usual u called `buy with full cash, yestreday and we might just open gap down today, we might just fall towards 8K this year only (If DOW is replicating 1930) or we might just move first towards 14 and fall towards 8k next year (if DOW is replicating 1974 or 1987). Ok thats a different story, We have a challenge open of Reliance and Reliance Capital hitting new tops this year and shorts were to be bankrupt and there shorts too were to be snatched by the bulls. Ok again that too is diffrent story, time to tell a new story, well the sensex rallied from 2002 to 2007 and we had corrections at every levels, corrections at 6k which was a correction to 2003 to 2004 rise and breakout after a year, then the sensex rallied to 12.6 k and corrected to 8.8k, a correction to rally form 6K in april 2005 to 12.6k in May 2006 and continuing on till Jan 2008. Now and yes most probably this wud be the outcome we are in for a correction to the total bull run i.e maybe 1986 uptil now or 1990 uptil now, Why because we are in a synchronised World and Many Asian Indices (who are in doom after the boom, while the real eceonomy has replicated developed worlds) are guiding us. Also Nasdaq was in boom at 2000, the tech was not eveolving, now tech is at the boom but nasdaq index is in doom. Indian economy is readying itlsef for the boom and the index for the doom. That is finally majority of Indians too wud enojoy the boom.
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
nifty down 6.7% but feels like market down by 20%....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
chalo ek bar phir se lower circuit ke taraf chale.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Expect World War in 1-2 years` time....
In reply to:
Expect another large fall today: Mohoni
Posted by : MMB Messenger
European markets fell again last night, while the US indices went into free fall after a positive start. Asian markets are down very heavily this morning, and the global sell-off is showing no signs of ending. We can expect another large fall today as a result.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
RN, HLN`s calls are in both directions. I had subscribed to his paid services and ended up losing all the amount i had kept for investment by following his Options predictions. And he changes his predictions 180 degrees once there are 4-5 continuous errors with his calls...
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Vam,
HLN proved himself right but inbetween he gave some bullish calls too just after which the Nifty ticked down. I dont know what the basis of those bullish calls were since he does not acknowledge his mistakes. But one cannot play options from his calls coz the premium undergo decay due to both volatility and time, at best one could have pared their exposure in equities following his call.
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
chalo ek bar phir se lower circuit ke taraf chale....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
in range 3113 was not that far on nifty ,downward impulse wave is almost over, my 25% buying is over, time to wait and watch.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The markets seem to have bottomed out today, after exactly 9 months of the BSE sensex touching a record level of 21207 on 10th January 2008. It will be in a consolidation phase for now, and is likely to make higher consecutive bottoms over the period of next few weeks. However, it will take another 9 months for the start of another bull run on Indian bourses....
In reply to:
Expect another large fall today: Mohoni
Posted by : MMB Messenger
European markets fell again last night, while the US indices went into free fall after a positive start. Asian markets are down very heavily this morning, and the global sell-off is showing no signs of ending. We can expect another large fall today as a result.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
European markets fell again last night, while the US indices went into free fall after a positive start. Asian markets are down very heavily this morning, and the global sell-off is showing no signs of ending. We can expect another large fall today as a result....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dirty float :
---------------------
A floating security whose value is not solely determined by free market supply and demand pressures but also by interventions of the concerned authorities.
---------------------
TC-101008-S-01...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Leasing finance :
A method of acquiring business equipment without capital outlay. the bank or finance company buys the equipment and leases it to the customer, in return for regular rental payments for the duration of the lease period.
TC-071008-S-01
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Top Sensex Losers - Icici Down 14.44 Pct, Jaiprakash Associates Down 10.8 Pct, Reliance Comm Down 10.25 Pct...
Poll
Udayan's Market Outlook
 |
Nifty likely to go back 3700-3800 level | |
| ||
| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
 |
Popular Boarders 7days| 277 | |
| 186 | |
| 142 | |
| 129 | |
| 120 | |
Top Tracked 7days| 709 | |
| 695 | |
| 571 | |
| 469 | |
| 437 | |
Prolific Boarders 7days| 403 | |
| 396 | |
| 348 | |
| 328 | |