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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Drastic changes in market pattern
Nifty crossed stop loss
Seems to be going more on lower side.
No chance today for it to come above 3700
Get ready for blood bath....
In reply to:
I T sector breath new oxygen in the market to run after Banking sector.
Posted by :
sp.palo
dear ZB,
today will nifty be able to sustain above 3700-3750 ?
regards
shakti 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
i feel for time being nifty must start upward from here,
so tht market can once agn get some breathing n investors enter with confidence for get in trapped, as on higher levels there will be huge selling....
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
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Most worldwide and in India specially finacial analyists, experts pundits are not only blind, deaf and dumb, but also stupid . The simle laws of economics and nature were defied by these persons, to unimaginable levels. This was mainly to satify there collective greed for highr pay and bonusses. Never in the history of world (except) in last 15 years or so, specially in last 5 years executive compensation grown so fast and so much that it dwarfed the interest of the company and shareholders. The govt also bacame party to this. Even the bankrupt LB, wants super severence package for their executives under the bail out plan. This is ridiculous.
Unless companies revert back to modest and reasonable expense on employees, and stop incurring massive CTC for executives, the companies are doomed to bankruptcy in coming days. Too much money in young hands is detrimental to public and economic health.
I cant understand that such simple thing were not understood by the so called graduates from elite institutions and creanm de la cream of the society, that they couldnot forsee the disaster in the offing.
...
In reply to:
Difficult to predict market direction
Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee
The world keeps changing every night and we come back with a completely fresh perspective - so much has changed since the markets closed last evening or yesterday afternoon. The Participatory-note (P-note) regulations have changed; the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has surprisingly cut cash reserve ratio (CRR), global markets continue to tumble though Asia is weathering it a little bit better this morning. So global turmoil, lots of policy changes - it will all go into the melting pot today, who knows what will win; policy action or global turmoil.
On global markets:
These are difficult times, unprecedented times in the global markets and therefore the kind of action that we are seeing is also quite unprecedented. Things are very fluid at this point in time. You do not know what the market will react to this morning, it could easily snap back because of the concerted regulatory action, which is happening or it could continue to drift down along with global markets. So it is a tough call.
We are seeing history unfold in front of our eyes. This is something that we do not see in a decade or a couple of decades, the kind of action that we are seeing in global markets and the way regulators across the world are forced to respond to it to at least keep the patient alive. There is absolutely history unfolding and therefore the less you take in terms of big directional calls in the market, the better because we have no clue of where the situation might land us in finally. It is tough times and absolutely historic times for financial markets around us.
For many markets, it is almost like the hemorrhaging right now?
It is and I suspect that will continue because this is not about small interest rate change and it is not about throwing a little bit money at the system or anything like that. We are probably hurtling towards the global recession not just the US recession at this point in time and the kind of economic distress, which might unfold over the next few quarters, is making everybody very nervous and justifiably so.
So right now you don’t want to get into that, okay inflation at 11.99 so we are fine, Cash reserve Ratio (CRR) down more 50-bps, so we are fine or to get extremely bearish between points and say now the market will go to 8,000 Sensex and the Dow will plunge to 5,000. None of us know what is going to happen. Could any of us have predicted the events that have unfolded in the last 4-5 weeks? The biggest analyst in the world couldn’t have seen of what is going to happen.
We are in unprecedented times and none of us know how things will shape up over the next few weeks and months. It is best to say I don’t understand what is going on; it’s beyond my comprehension completely. I don’t want to stick money into assets and all right now, if I could I would dig it under the ground and sit on it since I can’t do that I just need to be in cash at this point and not be brave trying to fool myself by thinking that I am the best analyst in the world who knows exactly how this thing will pan out. When in doubt just keep your money under the mattress that is always worked in history and that is going to work right now.
Asian Indices:
Asia is okay this morning it is not such a bad picture the Nikkei is down about 2%, Straits Times is actually up 1.5%, China is down 1.5%, so mixed bag but no great sell-off as you have seen across the US market things are little bit calmer out here though they started negatively, the most Asian markets seem to have come-off the morning’s lows.
It’s almost like a vortex situation everyday?
It is and the way things are now capitulating in the West is quite alarming because yesterday Europe was down 8-9% apiece. I do not remember in my memory when European markets fell 8-9% a day, Russia was down 19%. These are indices for large markets which are falling 18-19% a day; it’s not a single midcap stock. So it’s very scary, but the pace at which these markets are falling right now lead you to believe that for the near-term you are probably headed to another intermediate bottom because things do not fall 20% a day for very long. So its getting completely overdone right now, you are seeing the absolute peak of panic, it could last for a day or two sure or maybe in the next 48 hours you will probably see a spike back in the global markets. I know not the best morning to suggest that but it inevitably happens when market falls 7-8% a day.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
BSR,
doctors too advice to look at green things. its good for eyes.
And for pockets too.
shakti...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear sp.palo,
Green looks so good to eyes after so many days!
Let us hope we see that Green at the end of day!
Gud luk & happy investing!
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The RBI move is an well appreciated and timely drive for easing the liquidity presuure. This leads to more cash flow in the market followed by a further weaker Rupee. It may be compensated if there is increase in FII fund flow. Fii will be in an advantageous position in contrast to the domestic ones at this moment because of the weaker rupee. We should take some measure to restrict the FII fund outflow in case if market recovers. There has to be at least 2 year lock in for the FII inflow. If it is not done, FIIs will take money out during that time and the doimestic investors shall be the worst affected and another Mayhem in the Indian stock market can not be ruled out. ...
In reply to:
FIIs, experts unanimously cheer CRR cut
Posted by : MMB Messenger
After the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, cut the cash-reserve ratio, or CRR, by 50 basis points to 8.5% with effect October 11, in a bid to infuse Rs 20,000 crore into the system, experts are unanimous in their view: the rate cut will ease liquidity in the cash-starved market.
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Hi BSR,
Mr V. K. Sharma of ANAGRAM Stockbroking had quoted in "The Times of India " a month ago that once crude oil dips below $ 100 people will stop linking/tracking it to the equity markets.
Regards....
In reply to:
At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Gud to see that ppl understand the underlying human psychology that go in market... true for any market!
Oil has cracked beautifully... well below 90 USD... As always, no BS expert is talking about that now! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
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The RBI move is an well appreciated and timely drive for easing the liquidity presuure. This leads to more cash flow in the market followed by a further weaker Rupee. It may be compensated if there is increase in FII fund flow. Fii will be in an advantageous position in contrast to the domestic ones at this moment because of the weaker rupee. We should take some measure to restrict the FII fund outflow in case if market recovers. There has to be at least 2 year lock in for the FII inflow. If it is not done, FIIs will take money out during that time and the doimestic investors shall be the worst affected and another Mayhem in the Indian stock market can not be ruled out. ...
In reply to:
FIIs, experts unanimously cheer CRR cut
Posted by : MMB Messenger
After the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, cut the cash-reserve ratio, or CRR, by 50 basis points to 8.5% with effect October 11, in a bid to infuse Rs 20,000 crore into the system, experts are unanimous in their view: the rate cut will ease liquidity in the cash-starved market.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
After the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, cut the cash-reserve ratio, or CRR, by 50 basis points to 8.5% with effect October 11, in a bid to infuse Rs 20,000 crore into the system, experts are unanimous in their view: the rate cut will ease liquidity in the cash-starved market....
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Market is going to go down again. There is rumour that many banks in US has these credit issues...
In reply to:
Mkts rebound sharply on CRR cut; Sensex back above 12K
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Markets have bounced back sharply and have managed to recover half of yesterday's loss. Benchmark indices have taken Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) cut positively, where RBI has cut CRR by 50 bps to 8.5% in late evening yesterday.
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Dear BSR,
absolutely right. Randomness has no reason and direction.
Now, in these market conditions, some investors are more captured by greed than fear. They have ample money to invest but waiting for prices to come down a little more. this is greed and not fear. I may not be correct but my personal feeling ( a bullshit thought ).
Enjoy navratri
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
Sentiment Analysis
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Yep sp.palo.
Sentiments at times PLAY key role resulting in BAD decisions most of the time! :)
BullShit theory do talk about sentiments for the random market behavior at times! :)
--
BullShit Theories Rule:
Bottomline fact is that Market is RANDOM.
Since market is random, everyone tries to come with a `nice` theory to explain the RANDOMNESS. Be it fundamental theory or technical theory or sentimental theory. For some strange reasons, most people will make up elaborate theories about what is going on in the markets.
The media are always trying to explain the market even though they know nothing about the market. :) If you have noticed, all theories talks excessively on what is happening or has happened. Not much space or talks is about what is going to happen! :)
Price can go UP or DOWN without a valid reason. Still, media will come up with nice theories to explain the fall or rise.
Remember: Stock market in the end is a GAME of REAL Money.
--
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
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It could go below 3500, as its the FII`s withdrawl time.
We cannot do much to save the situation as the FII investment has been so huge. So when they are in trouble and need cash, what else they can do ?
It all depends on the confidence of FII, and in near term they are surely in panic..
Perhaps, the Indian Government, Public sector and Private Businesses could bring in some liquidity.....
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
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Economy & Markets : Recalibration begins
-----------------------------------------
This is the very beginning of recalibration of Economy and markets (Indian as well as global). Things will get far worse and the process will be painful.
People`s day to day life is going to be impacted; for some, very severely. However a time of great opportunity for the long term investor.
A decade from now Indian economy will emerge far far more stronger.
Stock Market outlook
--------------------
- No change in my assessment. Given a 12K breach, there is now more than 70% chance of a 10K breach
- On the upside , my estimates suggest that Sensex likely to go up to 40K (min 25K) by Sept 2013 and 80K (min 45K) by 2016
Investment Strategy
-------------------
- Begin Accumulation. If you have Rs. 100 in free cash, invest Rs 50 right away. Remaining Rs. 50 post 10K breach. Monthly savings – hold off half for 10K breach and use the remaining for regular accumulation.
- Existing holdings – Hold on to existing investments, unless you need cash urgently. Be ready for a long haul.
- Be ready for a seven years kind of time span.
Key Drivers : Global Economy
----------------------------
- US in recession : the question now is not if so, but, how bad will it be and will the country go into a depression.
- Credit markets : in US and Europe have absolutely frozen out. Nobody is ready to lend to anybody. There is a deeps sense of mistrust. Banks, corporates and even government bodies are looking at severe cash crunch. If the liquidity situation does not improve in next month or so, US risks a complete economic shutdown, similar to the great depression of 1929.
- US financial markets: At best there will be complete restructuring and at worst a complete meltdown. More big names will go down under
- Europe / Japan : Europe and Japan already in recession like states. Japan Q2 GDP contracted 0.6% QoQ. Europe growth estimates for 2008 at 1.7% and falling.
- China – in slowdown mode, similar to India.
- Global impact of US and Eurozone meltdown/ recession : Economies across the globe would be impacted significantly though by differing degrees. Global slowdown certain, global recession likely.
Key Drivers : Indian Economy
----------------------------
- GDP Growth : 5% or lower levels over next two years
- Slowdown across all sectors. As is the case in all downturns , the hardest hit would be the cyclical and commodities sector.
- IT/ BPO : Margins coming down. Outsourcing will become more difficult as US/ Eurpoe jobless claims mount.
- Steel / Cement / Mining/ Refining /Commodities: Will be worst hit as the price cycle takes a downturn.
- Banking : Will be badly hit. Credit offtake falling , margins getting squeezed and defaults rising.
- Telecom / Pharma / Consumer goods : Not so badly hit. Though growth rates will come down with varying degrees.
- Capital goods : Badly hit. Corporate will hold off capital goods investments.
- Infrastructure : Growth will slowdown. Government will be short of cash to fund projects till the economy goes on a recovery path.
- Auto / 2 Wheeler : 4 Wheeler will be badly impacted. 2 Wheelers less so.
- Labor prices : Salaries, bonuses and increments would be adversely impacted.
- Labor market : Layoffs will start in H1-09.
- Land prices : Prices will come down. Distress sales likely by developers as even the big ones will run out of cash in 18 months. Some will go bankrupt.
- Interest Rates : Will start coming down. In a couple of years we`ll again see housing interest rates at 6% levels....
In reply to:
Difficult to predict market direction
Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee
One can understand what Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is trying to do and you don’t fault that. Things are difficult they are doing whatever they can. It is not difficult to go back on a decision which was taken less than a year back with great fanfare saying, “We want more transparency in our market therefore P-notes must go and you have to register yourself as FIIs. Then 11-months down the line to eat humble pie and come back and say it was never about transparency, it was only about flows. At that point we didn’t want flows because the Finance Minister told us that the rupee is getting completely out of whack and therefore Sebi should then press for transparency and close the P-note window.”
Now that there is no liquidity in the system now Sebi does not require transparency as much as dollars and therefore we close that door. It’s not an easy move for a regulator to take and their cover to a certain extent is blown on the intention of this P-note move to begin with but having said that if it helps the market then we don’t complain. If it brings in money then we don’t complain, we say okay what is good for the market is fine, we sacrifice principle for the sake of that quite easily.
It is good for the market? - I am not quite sure because there are a few technical things I don’t think that 40% of Assets Under Management (AUM) limit, which was there and which was the guiding principle or the operative principle works anymore because there is plenty of headroom in the system in any case. So removing that 40% cap will not get the dollars in. Also the whole Assets under Management has come down so dramatically that 40% of what your calculating has also changed quite a bit, so all of this is becoming a bit meaningless.
The only one technical point where it might actually help is that people want to shift away some P-notes from a few large investment banks to a few other large investment banks. That shift might be facilitated to a certain extent. I don’t want to mention names but a couple of global investment banks you know the names you are not exactly in the pink of health right now and there are a couple others who are a little better off. So the guys who are a bit better off might be closer to that 40% limit. But that aside, I don’t think this is big news. FIIs still continue to be on the sell side and that won’t change for a while.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18
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Dear HLN,
U may have to revise your Dow to Nifty values, now.
Where do u see the Nifty / Sensex bottom ?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Dear Jonas,
OK I give the following values of Nifty with corresponding
Dow Values. Please analyse
11100 = 4200
10900 = 4000
10400 = 3800
10300 = 3700
10150 = 3500
9650 = 3000
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nothing official about it...
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hi fmcgbites... seems that Mr. HLN is the captain of the Ship with Many innocent investors onboard. His ship will sink to the bottom of blue see, even when there is no storm, just because of his wierd so called techincal analysis, and will take full toll on the innocent investors listening and subscribing to his paid services. He is always seem beating his own drum for predicting levels correct, which actually he predicts to be in month of January and gradually keeps movinf the timeframe as the market progresses. Somewhere in no mans land, his levels are reached in last quarter of year ( which are anyways supposed to come ), he will come out with his drum. God save those who are doomed by this person. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
fmcgbites
3600 prudent prediction was in 2005 or 2006 or 2007 or 2008. which year
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