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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear HLN,
This is my first post to you ever.
I have read many of your posts so far.What you have predicted so many months back has come exactly true today. You definitely deserve utmost praise for this prediction.Please accept my heartfelt congratulations. I can say you know your TA and EWT theory quite well.I suggest you to predict only indices levels in future with very very broad time indications ( + or - three to six months )and not commit on the exact time frame which is most difficult to predict as everyone knows.However even this cannot deflect anything away from the credit you richly deserve. I always feel we have to give credit where it is due and between you & Kalidas , MMB has been served well in the last one year.
Coming to the future , please keep up the good work and give us your broad view on when you expect the U turn in the markets.
Personally I have been investing continously since Oct / Nov 2007 and continue to buy even now. By nature and reasoning , I am a very LT investor who normally holds shares for 3 + years at the minimum.
To be frank I have managed to get a tremendous CAGR in the last ten years ( way way out of normal expectations) by asset swapping across asset classes and sectoral rotations inside the stock markets , long term front running in FII investible sectors.Even as a LT investor , I feel that picking shares at lower index levels can be definitely helpful as this will increase the volume of purchase as well giving a better of margin of safety in price.
I still believe sensex 22000 levels are possible in second half of 2009 and even started a thread to that effect sometime back.Your take will be useful.
regards,
wbuffett001...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
hindlevernet
Hi boarders,
I am very thankful to you for all your messages compimenting
for accurate precition of Nifty hitting 3600.
I am also very grareful to you for making this thread so lively
and so active.
1. 108 prudent boarders tracking it
2. More than 2000 messages posted every month
3. Most active thread of MMB.
THANKS A MILLION BOARDERS, AGAIN AND AGAIN 
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
It looks like that nifty will touch 3150-3000 level, if it breaks 3400 level. Smart pullback rally is on the card at any time from now. For upside nifty has to cross 3750-3900 level. Sensex has a very good support at 11500-11300. If it breaks 11300 level, it can go down to 10300-9800 level. The sentiment has been not so good bcoz of USA financial crisis. There is nothing wrong with India....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
greedy_one
OOPS!NOW WILL NIFTY HIT 3300 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
treatment for hiccups... Hmmmm
Tell them to start a new East India company here. We will change their hiccups into chronic TB cough. I hate those UK people. Let them get lost of their own.
shakti
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
I m hearing Royal bank of Scotland is having hiccups now.... suggest them a treatment....
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
I think it is a myth that FIIs make money. The size of their investments is so big that they can not pull out all their money out quickly when the times look bad.
Another thing: I was looking at a poll in moneycontrol asking people when would they start buying - at 3600, 3500 or 3400? Majority are waiting for 3400. That gives me the clue that we will not go there. Not at least now....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
:)
Reading your views sounds like BEARS have given a good HUG to you! :) :)
Quote
i had friend who was a dealer, he always said, when they buy even if the whole markets sits out to sell, they absorb it and when they sell, its the same, it bleeds every DII, HNI and every other person,
UnQuote
Sounds like Horror Lines from that gafla movie! :) :)
Quote
FII`s only look for fundamentals,
Unquote
If FIIs REALLY care about FUNDAMENTALS, then nothing to worry! :)
Btw, Those FIIs themselves do not have any fudnamentals. Strange that they look for fundamentals! :) :)
FIIs only look for making Money ! Those FIIs hardly care what is the name of counter! For them, that is just a counter to make money! :)
90% of traders in that losers list also include many FIIs! :) :)
Anyway, FIIs are just MONEY Hungry. :)
Just for information: Even an NRI or politicians kins can OPEN an account in the name of FIIs! :) So you will never get to know who those FIIs actually are! :)
FIIs is just some loose term given to those who are using the money from outside to bring into India! : ) :)
If that drop from Relianace from 2500 to 1700 is called capitualtion due to some FUNDAMENTAL changes, then I am surprise at the very meaning of that capitulation! :)
Probably, you have not understood REAL capitulation! Real capitulation happened when Lehman went BURST along with other financial companies! :) :)
Indian companies as of now appear to be exist! I hope in the name of those Bears HUGS, you would not start saying that all Indian companies in the market are going for a TOSS! :)
Btw, here is the official definition
--
In the stock market, capitulation is associated with `giving up` any previous gains in stock price as investors sell equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.
Investopedia Says... After capitulation selling, it is thought that there are great bargains to be had. The belief is that everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom.
--
Even those FIIs suffer from that capitulation phase and make losses in the GAME! :) Let us use their billions of dollars to make Money! They want to DISTRIBUTE that for free! :) :)
Have fun!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
An interesting article
--
The Challenges of the New World Order
America is no longer up to shouldering the world’s crises. But who is going to take its place? Russia, Brazil, China and India are all rising, but they are also competing with Europe and the US for finite natural resources. Only a common future -- a `change through rapprochement` and not a `clash of futures` can carry us forward.
he Alfred Herrhausen Society, the international forum of Deutsche Bank, is organizing a new project entitled Foresight in order to analyze and compare the future visions of emerging and existing world powers. Through discussion and debate, it hopes to find elements for a common future. The inaugural event held in Moscow brought together participants from Brazil, China, Europe, Japan, India, Russia, the United States and other parts of the world to discuss Russia’s role in a multipolar world. Further symposia are planned in the United States after the presidential elections, Europe, Japan, India, China, and Latin America. These events will also include high-level participants from Africa, the Arab world, and the Asia Pacific countries. One of the main goals of this series is to see the world through the eyes of others, rather than through a purely Eastern or Western lens.
New alliances that set countries against one another will not be able to solve the challenges of the 21st century. New forms of international cooperation, consultation, and compromise will have to play a central role in a multipolar world. It is absurd that Italy belongs to the G-8, but not China or Brazil. And what sort of meaning can a global security council have when India, Brazil, and the European Union are left out, while France and Great Britain are permanent members?
Needed are new forms of international governance: in a world with diminishing resources and accelerating climate change, states might be tempted to pursue their own interests in order to gain short-term advantages. The challenge will be to devise a new international framework and an organized balance of interests. Only a common future -- `change through rapprochement` not a `clash of futures` -- can bring us further.
Certainly, the past ten years provide much cause for pessimism. In order for the next ten years to be a success, we will need to be fortified by a credible, if skeptical, optimism. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
Personally I feel as I go around Usa and look around real estate values and compare it to rest of world.... I don`t see them over blown.... expect a few metro areas or in really rich neighborhoods .. so even if us government buys bad debt...with bailout money.. now and if things turn around I think they have pretty good chance of even making a profit on this bail money...... only if the money is used wisely of course.....
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
OOPS!NOW WILL NIFTY HIT 3300 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : greedy_one
Now WILL NIFTY HIT 330 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Now WILL NIFTY HIT 330 AND SENSEX TOUCH 10500?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vtycoon
all guys n dupes hre..
listen
NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000 i will shave my BALD k...if u think dat NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000 den u guys sux...btta leave share market..u have no right 2 stay hre..
other indices r on dre 1 year low n india is outperformin its peer + uS MARkets...n again nifty will go 2 15000...n if it starts fallin frm dat level it ont touch NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000 .dis k,...so guys i sugest u betta don reply dese DUpe msg's n njoy..
JAI HINd !
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Good to talk to you..... howz is it going over there......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
venkat_c
Royal bank of Scotland will withstand the crisis. I am venkat from Training8m, Queensland, Australia
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks briefly turned negative on Tuesday, weighed down by financial shares, as disappointment about the absence of coordinated rate cuts by central banks tempered optimism about a Federal Reserve plan to strengthen the commercial paper market.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 41.50 points, or 0.42 percent, at 9,914.00. The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index .SPX was down 4.81 points, or 0.46 percent, at 1,052.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 13.13 points, or 0.70 percent, at 1,849.83.
Investors had bet that after Monday`s slide in global equity markets, central banks might mount a coordinated response to calm jittery investors.
Bank of America fell more than 16 percent a day after it announced a plan to raise as much as $10 billion to shore up its capital. The bank also slashed its dividend and posted a slide in quarterly profit in a surprise announcement.
...
In reply to:
The End of Wall Street
Posted by : sambala
European shares in biggest one-day fall ever
Banks, miners lead stock slump across Europe
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Personally I feel as I go around Usa and look around real estate values and compare it to rest of world.... I don`t see them over blown.... expect a few metro areas or in really rich neighborhoods .. so even if us government buys bad debt...with bailout money.. now and if things turn around I think they have pretty good chance of even making a profit on this bail money...... only if the money is used wisely of course........
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
So DOW closed well above BS expectation of 9800+ value!
Dow closed in four digit figures.
9,955.50
-369.88 (-3.58%)
Oct 6 - Close
That four figures should be good enough to create all kind of scary and fearful headlines. That four figures will now put PRESSURE on different BIG PLAYers to take some steps!
Scope is still for some Downside to that 9800 on closing basis in 1-2 days!
Let us hope positive news along with rate cuts, better corporate results along with new accounting norms starts coming up!
Rally on DOW should be expected soon!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Royal bank of Scotland will withstand the crisis. I am venkat from Training8m, Queensland, Australia...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
I m hearing Royal bank of Scotland is having hiccups now.... suggest them a treatment....
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Greenberg blames AIG woes on shorts, accounting
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A former chief executive of American International Group Inc defended the insurer`s risk management but said looser accounting and curbs to market short-selling could have saved it.
Changes to so-called fair value accounting and rules governing investors who make bets that a stock will fall could have mitigated AIG`s liquidity problems, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg wrote in testimony to a congressional panel submitted on Tuesday.
Greenberg, a former CEO who ran the company for nearly four decades, will not appear because of illness.
Greenberg left in 2005 following an accounting scandal for which he has denied any wrongdoing. He was AIG`s largest individual shareholder before the company agreed to a federal bailout that gave the government 80 percent ownership.
Greenberg also said the role of credit agencies needs to be reexamined.
...
In reply to:
No one is too big not to fall
Posted by : sambala
GM could sell Detroit headquarters to raise cash
DETROIT
A General Motors official says the automaker could consider selling its downtown Detroit headquarters as part of a way to raise cash, but plans to stay in the towering complex.
The Detroit News reports Tuesday General Motors Corp. wants to borrow about $500 million from one or both of Detroit`s pension funds to refinance the Renaissance Center, which it bought earlier this year for $626 million.
GM`s executive director of worldwide real estate John Blanchard says talks are preliminary and the automaker is "committed to the city." It moved its headquarters from Midtown Detroit in 1996 and initially leased the building.
GM earlier announced it was putting assets such as its Hummer truck brand up for sale and could announce more asset sales this quarter.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
As credit losses mount, IMF warns of deeper slowdown
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday increased its estimate of global losses from the financial meltdown to $1.4 trillion and warned that the world`s economic downturn was deepening.
"Declared losses on U.S. loans and securitized assets are likely to increase further to about $1.4 trillion," the IMF said, increasing the loss estimate from $945 billion in April and slightly up from $1.3 trillion it cited last month.
In its quarterly assessment of global capital markets, the IMF said global economic activity is slowing down as growth in advanced economies decelerates and emerging economies start to lose momentum.
"Despite better-than-expected performance early this year, rising financial turmoil has led to a downgrade in the IMF`s baseline forecast for global economic growth in 2008-09," it said.
The IMF called for "internationally coherent and decisive policy measures" to restore confidence and to avert a more protracted economic slowdown, but warned that central banks would need to continue injecting cash to calm the unprecedented turmoil.
"The risk of a more severe adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the broader economy represents a critical threat," the IMF said.
"The combination of mounting losses, falling asset prices, and a deepening economic downturn has caused serious doubts about the viability of a widening swath of the financial system," it added.
It estimated that major global banks will need about $675 billion in capital over the next several years.
The IMF warned of further losses, with significant gaps between reported and estimated write-downs, as the crisis increasingly becomes disorderly.
It said a further decline in the U.S. housing market and a wider economic slowdown is leading to new loan deterioration. Delinquencies on prime mortgages and commercial real estate are increasing, as well as those for corporate and consumer loans, it noted.
With the economic slowdown spreading, financial institutions will increasingly face losses on non-U.S. assets as well, the IMF said.
The fund said pressures were now emerging in Europe, as house prices in some countries decline, economic growth falters and lending conditions tighten.
The IMF warned that overall risks to emerging markets, which earlier appeared resilient to the credit turmoil, have risen sharply as appetite for emerging assets has declined and capital outflows have intensified, leading to tighter liquidity conditions.
...
In reply to:
Paulson`s Poison & Antidote
Posted by : sambala
IMF calls for coordinated action to address crisis
WASHINGTON
The International Monetary Fund is calling for a "collective commitment" by finance officials around the world to combat the ongoing credit crisis.
The IMF on Tuesday in a semiannual report also raised its estimate of the total losses that will be caused by the U.S. credit crisis to $1.4 trillion, up from an estimate of $1 trillion in April.
The IMF`s report says estoration of financial stability would "benefit from a publicly-stated collective commitment by the authorities of the affected countries to address the issue in a consistent and coherent manner."
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
This kind of volatility comes generally near the bottoming out process ! is it a start of bottoming the market ?...
In reply to:
Where do you see the Nifty bottoming out?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
IMF calls for coordinated action to address crisis
WASHINGTON
The International Monetary Fund is calling for a "collective commitment" by finance officials around the world to combat the ongoing credit crisis.
The IMF on Tuesday in a semiannual report also raised its estimate of the total losses that will be caused by the U.S. credit crisis to $1.4 trillion, up from an estimate of $1 trillion in April.
The IMF`s report says estoration of financial stability would "benefit from a publicly-stated collective commitment by the authorities of the affected countries to address the issue in a consistent and coherent manner."
...
In reply to:
Paulson`s Poison & Antidote
Posted by : sambala
Credit still choked, Treasurys rally
European bank problems add to investor worries, leading to tighter borrowing and a flight from stocks.
NEW YORK -- Credit markets were still choked Monday, as the financial crisis spread throughout Europe, and investors reacted to the 0 billion bailout plan signed by President Bush .
Treasury prices ticked higher as investors waited to see signs of relief and stock markets around the world tumbled.
The European economy has been tripped by the same credit crunch that forced the bailout plan signed into law by President Bush last week. Over the weekend, Germany implemented its own bailout package.
The private financial sector of Germany has pledged €50 billion to juice the Hypo Real Estate bank, the nation`s Finance Ministry said Sunday. Hypo is one of Germany`s largest housing lenders.
The German government also stepped in to shore up consumer confidence by guaranteeing all private checking and savings accounts.
Treasurys: Government debt prices rose Monday as investors waited to see when the bailout package would start to have an effect on the crippled economy. Treasurys are a perceived safe-haven for investors in times of uncertainty.
The benchmark 10-year note rose 26/32 to 104-2/32 and its yield fell to 3.51% from 3.63% late Friday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The 30-year bond rose 1-15/32 to 108-17/32 and its yield dipped to 4.01% from 4.12% late Friday.
The 2-year note rose 7/32 to 101-1/32 and its yield fell to 1.49% from 1.66%.
The yield on the 3-month note fell to 0.41% from 0.49%. The 3-month note is a popular asset for money markets looking for stability because it offers a safe place to park cash on a short-term basis.
The gains in Treasurys reflected a flight to safety from stocks. Asian markets ended down 4% to 5%, Europe`s major indexes were 5% lower at midday, and U.S. futures pointed to a sharply lower open.
Bailout aftermath: The goal of the U.S. bailout plan was to loosen the clogged pipes of credit. Banks have been sitting on their cash, unwilling to lend, and if they are lending, it comes at a premium. When banks don`t lend, economic growth stalls and consumers have a hard time getting a loan for a house, car or tuition.
But the bailout plan was not expected to be a quick fix. The plan will take some time to offer relief for the economy and even longer for that relief to trickle down to consumers.
After weeks of belabored negotiating, and an initial failed vote in the House, the bill became law Friday.
President Bush, whose administration proposed the measure last month, has urged patience.
