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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Hello DU sir,
Its such a pleasure to meet you here after so long. One thing we share in common is that both of us are bare-bone FnO traders. I also do options but in less quantity. But delivery, I only do it in sugar stocks.
Its sad that you do not follow the nifty. Now, here comes the difference between us. I do not follow the sensex - lol. In fact, for many days, I do not even know what sensex levels opened at and closed at. But nifty, I remember quite a bit of numbers by heart. I personally feel ,the nifty futures gives the exact level of sentiments and technical levels of this market. For instance, a premium on the nifty shows its bullishness and inversely a discount shows its bearishness. The amount of discount or premium gives me an idea about the extent of the emotional quotient. This is not possible with the sensex. For instance, during bullish phases, nifty trades at premiums above 30 rupees and last time we were around 3800 levels, it was trading in huge discounts of rs. 50 and above. I hope you get my point. I will suggest you to follow the nifty like a hawk , which will improve your trading skills greatly, although I know you are pretty adept at that. When I see the nifty going up fast, I instantly go long on my future lots and the nifty pulls up other stocks along with it.
This analysis I did of the nifty making the head and shoulders is more or less in its final stages of formation. If we do not cross 4650 this time and start going down again from there and when we break 4220-4240, this pattern gets final confirmation - please note. Otherwise, there is no guarantee that this head and shoulders will definately play out its bearish note.
I am sure you must have understood. There is no need to thank me for sharing my thoughts. I have learnt much much from this board and am more than happy to give it back what I learnt on my personal front.
regards
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
DUstocks
Very interesting lovemeall26 !
I do lament my ignorance of the "anatomy of the NIFTY being".
However, regardless of whatever 'numero-graphic' elements of technical charting facilitate interpreting NIFTY movements, I do find your description very intersting (for a bare-bone FnO trader like me).
I hope and wish your conclusions prove accurate too (within permissible limits of course). No slight intended all, and thanks for sharing. Regards, DU. 
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Error: He still continues.......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pranky
Ostybhai is osteoporous... his msg is very much there on this very thread , BUT before that chk my msg to him..... Jus go to his home-page... Simple.... & chk the whole conversation.... Simpler.... isnt it??
And lemme inform U, Bhai HLN has this dity habit of deleting msgs that are slightly not in his favour... even after the Mod has warned him, he still continuous.... Now if this msg gets deleted as well..... Jus remeber to ALWAYS keep a copy of ur msg, whenevr U are writing on this thread...
Cheers!!
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Ostybhai is osteoporous... his msg is very much there on this very thread , BUT before that chk my msg to him..... Jus go to his home-page... Simple.... & chk the whole conversation.... Simpler.... isnt it??
And lemme inform U, Bhai HLN has this dity habit of deleting msgs that are slightly not in his favour... even after the Mod has warned him, he still continuous.... Now if this msg gets deleted as well..... Jus remeber to ALWAYS keep a copy of ur msg, whenevr U are writing on this thread...
Cheers!! ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
pradesh
Hi lovemeall26,
Bravo !! u got five stars from whom? HLN!!!! ..You must have heard of a movie Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide.. I somehow remembered that.. any way hit and run is converted into hate and (now) love strategy... Noted your views..Regards
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
I think the gap above 4600 needs to filled....... we could easily land anywhere from 4850 to 5200 on nifty.......but first it has to break that 4600 to 4650 with a convincing push............yes...hahaha ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi,
NSG waiver has added fuel to the fire. You will see
Nifty hitting 4600, may be on Monday. Oil and Gas, Poewr,
Energy, capital goods, metals sectors will shoot up
like a rocket powered by nuclear fuel. Stocks to watch:
RELIANCE
ONGC
BPCL
BHEL
LARSEN
RELIANCE PETRO
SUZLON ENERGY
NTPC
JP HYDRO
JP ASSOCIATES
RNRL
GAIL
This list of s provides examples of the scrips
which may be on fire. Whole market will boom.
Sensex may be up 800 points
Thanks
SURESH MITTAL
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Hallo,
Could not find message by Ostybhai... disappeared?... Must be interesting one !!! so sad, I missed that.. hmmmm ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pranky
Thnx Ostybhai...!! :)
Unka petrol lagta hain abhi bhi khatam nahi hua.....LOL...!!!
3600 ka gunn gaana hee unki zindagi ban gayi hain.... LOL!!!!
Uske aagey kuchh bhi dikhaayi nahi deta hain unhe......LOL!!!!!
Cheers!!
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Why do you rule out HPCL or IOC?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi,
NSG waiver has added fuel to the fire. You will see
Nifty hitting 4600, may be on Monday. Oil and Gas, Poewr,
Energy, capital goods, metals sectors will shoot up
like a rocket powered by nuclear fuel. Stocks to watch:
RELIANCE
ONGC
BPCL
BHEL
LARSEN
RELIANCE PETRO
SUZLON ENERGY
NTPC
JP HYDRO
JP ASSOCIATES
RNRL
GAIL
This list of s provides examples of the scrips
which may be on fire. Whole market will boom.
Sensex may be up 800 points
Thanks
SURESH MITTAL
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Hi lovemeall26,
Bravo !! u got five stars from whom? HLN!!!! ..You must have heard of a movie Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide.. I somehow remembered that.. any way hit and run is converted into hate and (now) love strategy... Noted your views..Regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello HLN,
After a long time I will agree with you that our markets do not look so rosy at present. Today being an off day,I deeply studied my charts and came to the conclusion that our beloved nifty is slowly forming a head and shoulders pattern.
The left shoulder was formed at 4539 , the head at 4650 and the right shoulder was formed on tuesday at 4522 with the neckline being at 4205. Now this neckline on being extended shows a neckline support at 4220 which if broken will play out the head and shoulders pattern to the hilt. In laymans terms, this is a very bearish signal on the charts. Adding further fuel to this theory is the fact that there is greater volumes on the left shoulder compared to volumes of the head and the right shoulder,hence I now firmly believe that nifty might not be able to see 4650 too. Hence, I shall be starting to go short from 4600 levels itself in case I miss the bus for a huge fall coming up. Dow has also broken important support while touching 11037 levels and asia is making new lows. It looks quite like a mirage that India continues to outperform.
So I will suggest to fellow boarders to play the game accordingly.
lovemeall26
Is this a victory as the Cong says or a surrender as the Left says? What do you think?
Posted by : ank1977Tracked by: 0 Boarder
This is a victory for India not for any party, so it has been a pending issue since last 34 years, at last it has gone thru. Nothing to loose for our side, moreover now India is heading towards "India Shining"....
In reply to:
Is this a victory as the Cong says or a surrender as the Left says? What do you think?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Thnx Ostybhai...!! :)
Unka petrol lagta hain abhi bhi khatam nahi hua.....LOL...!!!
3600 ka gunn gaana hee unki zindagi ban gayi hain.... LOL!!!!
Uske aagey kuchh bhi dikhaayi nahi deta hain unhe......LOL!!!!!
Cheers!!
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : osteoporous
Dear Pranky
Id to ab aane hi wali hai to chand bhi nikal aaya! (Since id is around can id ka chaand be far behind!?)
Actually I am quite a regular visitor to MMB but I rarely post a message. I hardly ever find anything new to say.
The photograph on my homepage is of Dhanaulti (a quite place near Mussorie). I got tired of seeing my own picture!
I do not want to comment on 3600 ka figure because my knowledge on technicals is very poor. But your quote from Maruti ad is good! I hope Suresh bhai is not offended!
Cheers & regards. Keep posting.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Better to SELL those stocks where Lehman has good stake in order to BUY later! :)
If someone know, please share the information how to easily identify where Lehman has strong shares just like Bear sterns had in the past??
part 1
--
The Korean government plans to privatize KDB by 2012 and transform it into a globally competitive investment bank to spearhead the development of the Korean financial market.
'The Korean government has ambitious plans for KDB. Although this is a deal not for the faint of heart, it is also an opportunity that comes once a century,' Kim noted.
Nonetheless, the timing is far from ideal. Most Korean financial institutions are reportedly scaling back overseas investment, with the global impact of the U.S. credit crisis showing few signs of abating.
Moreover, another state-run entity's recent bet on a Wall Street stake has gone the wrong way so far. The country's sovereign wealth fund, Korea Investment Corp., sank $2 billion into Merrill Lynch (MER: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc News, chart, profile, more MER 26.73, +0.52, +2.0%) earlier this year in exchange for about 3% stake. Since then, Merrill Lynch shares have slumped more than 50%. The slide in share prices prompted KIC to convert its preferred shares into common stock ahead of schedule.
Against such a backdrop, KDB will be hard-pressed to convince the regulators that injecting cash into a troubled Wall Street giant will eventually pay off. By all accounts, it will be an uphill task given the uncertainties surrounding Lehman's future viability.
Last week, Morgan Stanley predicted Lehman will report a third-quarter loss of $2.80 a share, on the back of a $3.5 billion write-down, and said drastic measures were needed.
Standard & Poor's Equity Research also recently projected Lehman to write down about $61 billion in mortgage assets and forecast the investment bank will record a loss of $7.44 a share in fiscal 2008 versus its earlier outlook of $4.84.
Crisis of confidence
KDB's most ambitious foray abroad may also be derailed due to problems closer to home. Korea is now grappling with its own financial woes amid escalating concerns that the country is headed for a crisis of confidence due to mounting concerns over its external position.
Korea's foreign debt totaled $419.8 billion at the end of June, up sharply from $382.2 billion at the end of 2007. Short-term debt, or debt maturing within one year, reached $175.6 billion, accounting for 68% of total debt at the end of June, according to data from the Financial Supervisory Service.
Korea's foreign exchange reserves stood at $258.1 billion, the sixth largest in the world. But worries over whether Korea has sufficient funds to honor its obligations have emerged in recent weeks as the government has been dipping into the reserve to defend the Korean won against the U.S. dollar, an exercise that appears to be futile as the won continues to retreat. Since the beginning of the year, the won has fallen about 17% against the greenback.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or the Kospi, has skidded some 25% since the end of 2007 as foreign investors continue to exit the market. In the first eight months of this year, foreign investors have been net sellers of 33.8 trillion won ($29.89 billion) in Korean shares, an amount that even financial regulators consider 'significant.'
'There is no possibility of a financial crisis. Our economic resilience and the structure of the financial system have strengthened in the past 10 years and concerns about a crisis have been triggered more by psychological factors rather than any deterioration in fundamentals,'.
Clearly, Korea's financial market jitters highlight the difficulties that KDB faces as it navigates its way to a successful deal with Lehman. And even after an acquisition has been finalized, only time will tell whether KDB's gamble will pay long-term dividends or whether Lehman is just a trophy whose luster has faded....
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Better to SELL those stocks where Lehman has good stake in order to BUY later! :)
If someone know, please share the information how to easily identify where Lehman has strong shares just like Bear sterns had in the past??
part 1
--
KDB's road to Lehman paved with pitfalls
Analysis: Stake could prove a long-term win or faded trophy deal
By Sue Chang, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:23 p.m. EDT Sept. 5, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Outside of Asia, Korea Development Bank is not a household brand. In fact, many in Korea, although familiar with the name, aren't quite sure what it does. That is likely to change if it succeeds in buying a stake in Lehman Brothers, according to analysts.
'Given that KDB is not already well established as a global/regional [investment banking] player and given Lehman's extensive IB franchise globally, we read KDB's response as a natural interest in a potential opportunity. In particular with relation to the Capital Market Consolidation Act, to be effective locally as of 2009, KDB could stand to benefit from the LEH's brand recognition, business know-how and talented human resources,' analysts at JPMorgan said in a recent research note.
Established in 1954 in the aftermath of the Korean War to supply capital to reconstruct and develop the Korean economy, KDB has, until now, quietly carried out its role as a policy bank.
Indeed, most thought KDB's plan to invest in Lehman (LEH: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc LEH 16.20, +1.03, +6.8%) was bust after Kwang-Woo Jun, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, publicly cautioned the state-run entity last week.
'We believe KDB should approach the deal with extreme caution. In principal, we feel that it is inappropriate for a public institution to take on so much risk or take the lead in such deals,' Jun said.
He added that although the government welcomes the opportunity for Korean financial institutions to globalize and seek new growth engines, such efforts should be undertaken with full risks in mind, given the financial uncertainties at the moment.
The way things usually work in a strictly-regulated market like Korea's, a financial regulator expressing doubts about a specific deal is akin to a death knell.
But one factor that may help explain why KDB's interest in Lehman remains alive despite the lack of government enthusiasm is the fact that Governor Euoo-Sung Min, the chief executive at KDB, is a former Lehman executive. He served as the investment bank's chief executive in Korea before taking up his current post.
'Min has a reputation of being a deal maker, a good deal maker,' said Abraham Kim, an analyst with Eurasia Group.
In the face of the government's resistance, Min reportedly has revised his proposal to buying a 25% stake for about $6 billion through a consortium rather than taking a 50% stake via a solo bid.
As of yet, there are no details on who may join the consortium, with most banks linked to a possible deal vehemently denying their involvement -- underscoring the risks inherent in such high-profile deals.
'[A]s with any acquisition, there could be risk of overpayment or a need for additional capital injection post-acquisition, and it could take more time to fully achieve synergies than has been factored in,' said the JPMorgan analysts.
The analysts are so negative on the potential pitfalls that they recommended investors avoid any banks involved in the deal.
'We believe any Korean banks/FHC that would partner with KDB in a potential deal could bear any potential acquisition risks along with KDB, and we would expect most of the benefits to be difficult to realize in the near term,' they said.
Pursuing Lehman through a consortium is more 'politically palatable' than KDB's original plan and one that the Korean government is less likely to block as it addresses the dual concern about excessive risk and complicating its privatization, according to Kim.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Better to SELL those stocks where Lehman has good stake in order to BUY later! :)
If someone know, please share the information how to easily identify where Lehman has strong shares just like Bear sterns had in the past??
part 1
--
KDB's road to Lehman paved with pitfalls
Analysis: Stake could prove a long-term win or faded trophy deal
By Sue Chang, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:23 p.m. EDT Sept. 5, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Outside of Asia, Korea Development Bank is not a household brand. In fact, many in Korea, although familiar with the name, aren't quite sure what it does. That is likely to change if it succeeds in buying a stake in Lehman Brothers, according to analysts.
'Given that KDB is not already well established as a global/regional [investment banking] player and given Lehman's extensive IB franchise globally, we read KDB's response as a natural interest in a potential opportunity. In particular with relation to the Capital Market Consolidation Act, to be effective locally as of 2009, KDB could stand to benefit from the LEH's brand recognition, business know-how and talented human resources,' analysts at JPMorgan said in a recent research note.
Established in 1954 in the aftermath of the Korean War to supply capital to reconstruct and develop the Korean economy, KDB has, until now, quietly carried out its role as a policy bank.
Indeed, most thought KDB's plan to invest in Lehman (LEH: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc LEH 16.20, +1.03, +6.8%) was bust after Kwang-Woo Jun, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, publicly cautioned the state-run entity last week.
'We believe KDB should approach the deal with extreme caution. In principal, we feel that it is inappropriate for a public institution to take on so much risk or take the lead in such deals,' Jun said.
He added that although the government welcomes the opportunity for Korean financial institutions to globalize and seek new growth engines, such efforts should be undertaken with full risks in mind, given the financial uncertainties at the moment.
The way things usually work in a strictly-regulated market like Korea's, a financial regulator expressing doubts about a specific deal is akin to a death knell.
But one factor that may help explain why KDB's interest in Lehman remains alive despite the lack of government enthusiasm is the fact that Governor Euoo-Sung Min, the chief executive at KDB, is a former Lehman executive. He served as the investment bank's chief executive in Korea before taking up his current post.
'Min has a reputation of being a deal maker, a good deal maker,' said Abraham Kim, an analyst with Eurasia Group.
In the face of the government's resistance, Min reportedly has revised his proposal to buying a 25% stake for about $6 billion through a consortium rather than taking a 50% stake via a solo bid.
As of yet, there are no details on who may join the consortium, with most banks linked to a possible deal vehemently denying their involvement -- underscoring the risks inherent in such high-profile deals.
'[A]s with any acquisition, there could be risk of overpayment or a need for additional capital injection post-acquisition, and it could take more time to fully achieve synergies than has been factored in,' said the JPMorgan analysts.
The analysts are so negative on the potential pitfalls that they recommended investors avoid any banks involved in the deal.
'We believe any Korean banks/FHC that would partner with KDB in a potential deal could bear any potential acquisition risks along with KDB, and we would expect most of the benefits to be difficult to realize in the near term,' they said.
Pursuing Lehman through a consortium is more 'politically palatable' than KDB's original plan and one that the Korean government is less likely to block as it addresses the dual concern about excessive risk and complicating its privatization, according to Kim.
...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
An interesting news item:
---
India stock investors should buy on dips: Lehman
5 Sep, 2008, 1948 hrs IST, REUTERS
MUMBAI: Indian stock markets may fall by 10-15 percent in the short-term, but index levels between 12,500 and 13,000 can be viewed as buying opportunities in the coming year as inflation has peaked, Lehman Brothers said in a report.
The benchmark BSE index may trade between 14,000 and 19,685 in the next 12 months, Lehman said in the report dated Sept. 3 and released to the media on Friday.
Investors should consider buying shares in auto, media, consumer, telecom, real estate and pharma companies as well as banks, the research house said. Capital goods, non-ferrous metals and cement companies can be avoided, it added.
Double-digit inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by the central bank fuelled concerns of an economic slowdown and send the benchmark BSE index down 28.6 percent this year.
Inflation, which rose to 12.63 percent in August, was mostly driven by commodities and is likely to abate in the second half of current fiscal year on easing crude oil prices, Lehman said.
However, the central bank may continue with its tight monetary policy because of fiscal deficit concerns, Lehman said. With federal elections due early next year, the government is likely to boost spending, the research house added.
The government\\`s expenses will likely balloon on higher subsidies to fertiliser companies, oil bonds, farm loan waivers and wage increases for government employees, said Lehman.
Interest rates to consumers and companies may remain high in the next three-six months and 10-year yields will likely stay firm in coming months, the research house added.
Corporate earnings have been affected by higher interest rates, rising raw material costs and high yields, but margins are likely to stabilise in coming quarters in a deflationary commodity environment, Lehman added.
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Very interesting lovemeall26 !
I do lament my ignorance of the "anatomy of the NIFTY being".
However, regardless of whatever 'numero-graphic' elements of technical charting facilitate interpreting NIFTY movements, I do find your description very intersting (for a bare-bone FnO trader like me).
I hope and wish your conclusions prove accurate too (within permissible limits of course). No slight intended all, and thanks for sharing. Regards, DU....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello HLN,
After a long time I will agree with you that our markets do not look so rosy at present. Today being an off day,I deeply studied my charts and came to the conclusion that our beloved nifty is slowly forming a head and shoulders pattern.
The left shoulder was formed at 4539 , the head at 4650 and the right shoulder was formed on tuesday at 4522 with the neckline being at 4205. Now this neckline on being extended shows a neckline support at 4220 which if broken will play out the head and shoulders pattern to the hilt. In laymans terms, this is a very bearish signal on the charts. Adding further fuel to this theory is the fact that there is greater volumes on the left shoulder compared to volumes of the head and the right shoulder,hence I now firmly believe that nifty might not be able to see 4650 too. Hence, I shall be starting to go short from 4600 levels itself in case I miss the bus for a huge fall coming up. Dow has also broken important support while touching 11037 levels and asia is making new lows. It looks quite like a mirage that India continues to outperform.
So I will suggest to fellow boarders to play the game accordingly.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
Very interesting lovemeall26 !
I do lament my ignorance of the "anatomy of the NIFTY being".
However, regardless of whatever 'numero-graphic' elements of technical charting facilitate interpreting NIFTY movements, I do find your description very intersting (for a bare-bone FnO trader like me).
I hope and wish your conclusions prove accurate too (within permissible limits of course). No slight intended all, and thanks for sharing. Regards, DU....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : lovemeall26
Hello HLN,
After a long time I will agree with you that our markets do not look so rosy at present. Today being an off day,I deeply studied my charts and came to the conclusion that our beloved nifty is slowly forming a head and shoulders pattern.
The left shoulder was formed at 4539 , the head at 4650 and the right shoulder was formed on tuesday at 4522 with the neckline being at 4205. Now this neckline on being extended shows a neckline support at 4220 which if broken will play out the head and shoulders pattern to the hilt. In laymans terms, this is a very bearish signal on the charts. Adding further fuel to this theory is the fact that there is greater volumes on the left shoulder compared to volumes of the head and the right shoulder,hence I now firmly believe that nifty might not be able to see 4650 too. Hence, I shall be starting to go short from 4600 levels itself in case I miss the bus for a huge fall coming up. Dow has also broken important support while touching 11037 levels and asia is making new lows. It looks quite like a mirage that India continues to outperform.
So I will suggest to fellow boarders to play the game accordingly.
lovemeall26
Tracked by: 79 Boarders
ok boss congrats gud to c ya bull in mode....... I lived in Hounslow west for bit.... what part of London you from...... howz life in Chandigarh. ...... when will b the new airport completed in Mohali... cheers....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi,
NSG waiver has added fuel to the fire. You will see
Nifty hitting 4600, may be on Monday. Oil and Gas, Poewr,
Energy, capital goods, metals sectors will shoot up
like a rocket powered by nuclear fuel. Stocks to watch:
RELIANCE
ONGC
BPCL
BHEL
LARSEN
RELIANCE PETRO
SUZLON ENERGY
NTPC
JP HYDRO
JP ASSOCIATES
RNRL
GAIL
This list of s provides examples of the scrips
which may be on fire. Whole market will boom.
Sensex may be up 800 points
Thanks
SURESH MITTAL
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Better to SELL those stocks where Lehman has good stake in order to BUY later! :)
If someone know, please share the information how to easily identify where Lehman has strong shares just like Bear sterns had in the past??
--
Crunch Time For Lehman
Liz Moyer, 09.03.08, 2:27 PM ET
Time is running out for Lehman Brothers Chief Executive Richard Fuld to come up with a plan.
Wednesday, the Korean press reported that state-run Korea Development Bank proposed to buy a 25% stake in Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ), along with other Korean banks, in a deal worth .3 billion. According to the report in Chosun Ilbo, the proposal included separating some of Lehman\\`s .7 billion in mortgage-related assets into a \\`bad bank\\` to shield the investment bank from further risk of loss.
Negotiations have been going on for weeks, however, and no solid deal has been announced, intensifying the speculation about Lehman\\`s--and Fuld\\`s--future. The Korean bank didn\\`t help in that regard, according to a statement circulated Wednesday that makes it sound like nothing is imminent.
\\`In order to become competitive as a global investment bank, KDB has been looking into an M&A deal with overseas investment banks, including Lehman Brothers, as well as an asset management company, but nothing specific has been decided,\\` KDB said in a statement.
A Lehman spokesman wouldn\\`t comment on the Korean press report.
Lehman is due to report fiscal third-quarter results this month, and many expect billion to billion more in write-downs and the elimination of more than 1,000 jobs. Many also expect Fuld to detail a game plan to shore up Lehman\\`s balance sheet, either with new capital, asset sales or both. Lehman already raised billion in capital in a stock sale in June.
The drafting of a plan has been slow, however, with plenty of hurdles tossed in the way in the meantime.
Ospraie Management said Tuesday it was shutting down its .8 billion Ospraie Fund after a 26% decline in August and a 38% decline from the start of the year. Lehman bought a 20% stake in Ospraie\\`s management company three years ago, when many rival Wall Street companies were snapping up hedge fund investments to round out their asset-management divisions.
After closing the commodities fund, Ospraie will still have billion under management, just a small part of Lehman\\`s asset and investment management division, which manages 7 billion, or even of its billion in alternative investments.
Still, it\\`s more bad news at a time when Lehman needs something uplifting. \\`It\\`s certainly not something to ignore,\\` says Sander O\\`Neill analyst Jeffrey Harte, noting, however, that Lehman has bigger concerns.
A few weeks ago, the speculation centered on what the bank would do with the .7 billion worth of mortgages on its books. Lehman could sell the billion worth of commercial mortgages, for example, but Fuld seems to be holding out for a non-fire-sale price. Recall that Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ) sold billion worth of collateralized debt obligations for 22 cents on the dollar to Lone Star.
Fuld also is batting around the idea of selling part of the investment management division, in particular the Neuberger Berman fund group. A sale could fetch up to billion.
A sale, however, would chip away at Lehman\\`s prized business. Asset and investment management brought in .8 billion in total revenues for the first six months of the year, up 24% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, the capital markets division, Lehman\\`s biggest, lost 3 million.
Lehman\\`s book value is per share, but its stock trades at . Lehman\\`s market capitalization of billion and the estimated billion sale price of Neuberger Berman, implies the market puts a low value on Lehman\\`s remaining operations.
Bove thinks Lehman could be the target of a hostile takeover if something isn\\`t done quickly. \\`This saga is not likely to continue much longer.\\`...
In reply to:
India stock investors should buy :Lehman
Posted by : BullSheetRules
An interesting news item:
---
India stock investors should buy on dips: Lehman
5 Sep, 2008, 1948 hrs IST, REUTERS
MUMBAI: Indian stock markets may fall by 10-15 percent in the short-term, but index levels between 12,500 and 13,000 can be viewed as buying opportunities in the coming year as inflation has peaked, Lehman Brothers said in a report.
The benchmark BSE index may trade between 14,000 and 19,685 in the next 12 months, Lehman said in the report dated Sept. 3 and released to the media on Friday.
Investors should consider buying shares in auto, media, consumer, telecom, real estate and pharma companies as well as banks, the research house said. Capital goods, non-ferrous metals and cement companies can be avoided, it added.
Double-digit inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by the central bank fuelled concerns of an economic slowdown and send the benchmark BSE index down 28.6 percent this year.
Inflation, which rose to 12.63 percent in August, was mostly driven by commodities and is likely to abate in the second half of current fiscal year on easing crude oil prices, Lehman said.
However, the central bank may continue with its tight monetary policy because of fiscal deficit concerns, Lehman said. With federal elections due early next year, the government is likely to boost spending, the research house added.
The government\\`s expenses will likely balloon on higher subsidies to fertiliser companies, oil bonds, farm loan waivers and wage increases for government employees, said Lehman.
Interest rates to consumers and companies may remain high in the next three-six months and 10-year yields will likely stay firm in coming months, the research house added.
Corporate earnings have been affected by higher interest rates, rising raw material costs and high yields, but margins are likely to stabilise in coming quarters in a deflationary commodity environment, Lehman added.
