Market Outlook - Short Term

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello DU sir,
Its such a pleasure to meet you here after so long. One thing we share in common is that both of us are bare-bone FnO traders. I also do options but in less quantity. But delivery, I only do it in sugar stocks.
Its sad that you do not follow the nifty. Now, here comes the difference between us. I do not follow the sensex - lol. In fact, for many days, I do not even know what sensex levels opened at and closed at. But nifty, I remember quite a bit of numbers by heart. I personally feel ,the nifty futures gives the exact level of sentiments and technical levels of this market. For instance, a premium on the nifty shows its bullishness and inversely a discount shows its bearishness. The amount of discount or premium gives me an idea about the extent of the emotional quotient. This is not possible with the sensex. For instance, during bullish phases, nifty trades at premiums above 30 rupees and last time we were around 3800 levels, it was trading in huge discounts of rs. 50 and above. I hope you get my point. I will suggest you to follow the nifty like a hawk , which will improve your trading skills greatly, although I know you are pretty adept at that. When I see the nifty going up fast, I instantly go long on my future lots and the nifty pulls up other stocks along with it.
This analysis I did of the nifty making the head and shoulders is more or less in its final stages of formation. If we do not cross 4650 this time and start going down again from there and when we break 4220-4240, this pattern gets final confirmation - please note. Otherwise, there is no guarantee that this head and shoulders will definately play out its bearish note.
I am sure you must have understood. There is no need to thank me for sharing my thoughts. I have learnt much much from this board and am more than happy to give it back what I learnt on my personal front.
regards
lovemeall26

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : nightowl

i agrre with you tom,
4200 the low that hln predicted has been achieved... but i dont think we,ll go as high as 17500.. if we are lucky. perhaps.. 16500.. for now that should be the target... targets keep changing with changing scanarios, and so lets just wait and see.. if the chicago volitility index fall under 20 again... expect a fall... higher volatility is required for a market to move upwards.. and history has proven that as a fact.
regards
rittu

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : joetom

Dear HLN,

I am repeating what I said elsewhere, your predicting 3600 when the Nifty was in the range 5000-6370 is to be considered as achieved and you get the full credit for that. 5% difference is nothing for a such a long distance call. But, to go back below 3600 is likely if only we have some serious negative news. We have already had higher tops and higher bottoms in last few days. So, in my view market will go somewhere like 17500 and form double top formation, if it has to fall back again. If Sensex breaks above that level, we will be in the Bull phase and sure to touch previous all time high within a year.

Your patience to answer incorrigible Guest id's is really admirable. I can't stand them.

Best regards,
Tom

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600

Posted by : panni

to-morrow is the day of gain,& intraday can be played,purchase GMR Infrastructure,axis bank

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600

Posted by : jonas

Nightowl,
We may see a minor fall on mon/tues on GUSTAV fears to shed some gains of friday n US is closed on monday so no clues for tuesday.
Once gustav hurricane fears subside oil may tank below $ 110, anytime in the next 2 weeks.
Nifty has gained @ 15% in the past 1.5 months.
I am not an expert but i feel nifty will gain @ 15% in the first half of sep n then shed @ 10% in the later half but overall it will gain by +5 % by sep end n close @ 4500.
I will go long nifty now n short after it reaches 4800/5000 levels.
I will stick to my GUT feelings.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Don't just start buy the puts from tomorrow, wait for 3 or 4 days then buy it....

NSG waiver to give a sentiment boost to mkts

Posted by : MMB Messenger

It will be a sentimental leg up for sure for the markets. But beyond that I don’t think it will matter too much in the life of financial markets.

NSG waiver to give a sentiment boost to mkts

Posted by : MMB Messenger

It will be a sentimental leg up for sure for the markets. But beyond that I don’t think it will matter too much in the life of financial markets.

India stock investors should buy :Lehman

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Better to SELL those stocks where Lehman has good stake in order to BUY later! :)

If someone know, please share the information how to easily identify where Lehman has strong shares just like Bear sterns had in the past??
part 1
--
KDB's road to Lehman paved with pitfalls
Analysis: Stake could prove a long-term win or faded trophy deal
By Sue Chang, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:23 p.m. EDT Sept. 5, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Outside of Asia, Korea Development Bank is not a household brand. In fact, many in Korea, although familiar with the name, aren't quite sure what it does. That is likely to change if it succeeds in buying a stake in Lehman Brothers, according to analysts.
'Given that KDB is not already well established as a global/regional [investment banking] player and given Lehman's extensive IB franchise globally, we read KDB's response as a natural interest in a potential opportunity. In particular with relation to the Capital Market Consolidation Act, to be effective locally as of 2009, KDB could stand to benefit from the LEH's brand recognition, business know-how and talented human resources,' analysts at JPMorgan said in a recent research note.
Established in 1954 in the aftermath of the Korean War to supply capital to reconstruct and develop the Korean economy, KDB has, until now, quietly carried out its role as a policy bank.

Indeed, most thought KDB's plan to invest in Lehman (LEH: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc LEH 16.20, +1.03, +6.8%) was bust after Kwang-Woo Jun, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, publicly cautioned the state-run entity last week.

'We believe KDB should approach the deal with extreme caution. In principal, we feel that it is inappropriate for a public institution to take on so much risk or take the lead in such deals,' Jun said.
He added that although the government welcomes the opportunity for Korean financial institutions to globalize and seek new growth engines, such efforts should be undertaken with full risks in mind, given the financial uncertainties at the moment.
The way things usually work in a strictly-regulated market like Korea's, a financial regulator expressing doubts about a specific deal is akin to a death knell.
But one factor that may help explain why KDB's interest in Lehman remains alive despite the lack of government enthusiasm is the fact that Governor Euoo-Sung Min, the chief executive at KDB, is a former Lehman executive. He served as the investment bank's chief executive in Korea before taking up his current post.
'Min has a reputation of being a deal maker, a good deal maker,' said Abraham Kim, an analyst with Eurasia Group.
In the face of the government's resistance, Min reportedly has revised his proposal to buying a 25% stake for about $6 billion through a consortium rather than taking a 50% stake via a solo bid.
As of yet, there are no details on who may join the consortium, with most banks linked to a possible deal vehemently denying their involvement -- underscoring the risks inherent in such high-profile deals.
'[A]s with any acquisition, there could be risk of overpayment or a need for additional capital injection post-acquisition, and it could take more time to fully achieve synergies than has been factored in,' said the JPMorgan analysts.
The analysts are so negative on the potential pitfalls that they recommended investors avoid any banks involved in the deal.
'We believe any Korean banks/FHC that would partner with KDB in a potential deal could bear any potential acquisition risks along with KDB, and we would expect most of the benefits to be difficult to realize in the near term,' they said.

Pursuing Lehman through a consortium is more 'politically palatable' than KDB's original plan and one that the Korean government is less likely to block as it addresses the dual concern about excessive risk and complicating its privatization, according to Kim.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello pradesh,
Perhaps you will be surprised to know that HLN and me are old friends. I know him from the time he predicted nifty 3600 last year. At that time, he used to be laughed and scoffed at and I used to be the one who used to discuss it out on yahoo messenger with him. At that time, he was the joke of this board and he was a lonely man.And I was and still am a very good friend of the biggest bull on this board - Mr.Joetom. So I became friendly with Mr. Hindlevernet - the biggest bear of this board. And these two people provided me with valuable insights into the functioning of a bull and a bear and I then came to know how strongly they influence the markets. I used to study their gameplans etc etc very carefully.
Perhaps, you will not believe, but I still believe in what HLN says that nifty will see 3600, I started believing this from the 23rd of january 2008 after the huge crash. Then I started interacting with him a lot. His levels used to be good but unfortunately his timings were all wrong. And we future and options traders have a big disadvantage against us which is the time factor as you know. So after following him a couple of times I lost nicely in my puts in April and stopped following him totally and then started to use my gut feeling. Now after having indepth knowledge of the charts with the help on an online friend who had the patience to teach me charts for 23 days , everyday for four hours in the evening, I have become very confident in my trades and know the exact levels of entry and exits.
So,I became a little sceptical of Mr. HLN after april and also used to criticize him a lot when he went wrong. I know he deleted a few of my messages but thats a different story. But on a personal front, whatever I Know of him, he is a gentleman who is polite and knows what he is doing. Only thing is he goes drastically wrong in his timings. But these markets are so unpredictable, anyone can easily go wrong. I dont hold hard feelings against him though. Hence, I was not surprised to recieve five starts for two of my messages because I know he respects good technical analysis just as much as I do. If I find a good post, I too give ratings of five stars. Thats the way it should be. One should be open to criticism and praise at the same time. I hope this message clarifies any differences I hold with Mr. HLN.
regards
lovemeall26

Will NSG outcome, global cues really spook mkts next week?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

The markets may not have to wake up to bad cues from global markets on Monday morning. Another meeting is scheduled soon but so far there has been no conclusion at all out of the NSG meeting in Vienna. So that remains something that the market will react to either way on Monday morning.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pradesh

Hi lovemeall26,

Bravo !! u got five stars from whom? HLN!!!! ..You must have heard of a movie Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide.. I somehow remembered that.. any way hit and run is converted into hate and (now) love strategy... Noted your views..Regards

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : DUstocks

Very interesting lovemeall26 !

I do lament my ignorance of the "anatomy of the NIFTY being".

However, regardless of whatever 'numero-graphic' elements of technical charting facilitate interpreting NIFTY movements, I do find your description very intersting (for a bare-bone FnO trader like me).

I hope and wish your conclusions prove accurate too (within permissible limits of course). No slight intended all, and thanks for sharing. Regards, DU.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pranky

Ostybhai is osteoporous... his msg is very much there on this very thread , BUT before that chk my msg to him..... Jus go to his home-page... Simple.... & chk the whole conversation.... Simpler.... isnt it??

And lemme inform U, Bhai HLN has this dity habit of deleting msgs that are slightly not in his favour... even after the Mod has warned him, he still continuous.... Now if this msg gets deleted as well..... Jus remeber to ALWAYS keep a copy of ur msg, whenevr U are writing on this thread...

Cheers!!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pradesh

Hi lovemeall26,

Bravo !! u got five stars from whom? HLN!!!! ..You must have heard of a movie Dr Jekyll and Mr Hide.. I somehow remembered that.. any way hit and run is converted into hate and (now) love strategy... Noted your views..Regards