Market Analysis - Technical View

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : nightowl

jai shree krishna,
could you also predict the future of my stocks like adani, godrej and mundra...
I TRULY PRAY THAT YOU ARE RIGHT,
NO

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,

My view based on my limited knowledge and experience of markets is,

We are at HISTORIC BREAKOUT probability point for - Stock market in INDIA -
We have seen in last five years fantastic returns on investment observed in many stocks in such a short timespan of 5 to 8 years- we had not even imagined such returns in our whole trading and investing life-

After such bull runs come period of sideways and down moves where stocks change hands -

we are in such down move since last 8 months Jan2008 being month of all time high top - how long this down move will last and when new upward breakout will happen is the most important issue in many minds today.

Technical view-
We are much below YEARLY open of year 2008 thus without doubt in a correction mode / sideways/ down move at present.
Fresh buying is just too scary if yearly outlook is considered.

Let us zoom in - quarterly outlook-
2008 First quarter Jan- Mar 08 was bearish candle
second quarter Apr - Jun 08 was also bearish candle
BUT July - Sep 08 is DEFINITELY BULLISH - we are above open of July 08 in many stocks thus it says - POSSIBILITY of FRESH UPMOVE is VERY MUCH THERE in the offing -
As a chartist , wait for sep 08 close for confirmation is best strategy at present.
If July- Sep 08 is doji with lower leg then a GOOD probability of OCT - DEC 08 Bullish candle resulting into quarterly morning star pattern will arise .

Zoom in further into monthly charts-
Chechout simple 3 month moving average of most leading stocks and you will find that for Sep 08 a bull candle above 3 month simple moving average showing bullish breakout is very EASY as 3 month moving average is very VULNERABLE / POISED for yielding in favour of bulls.

Weekly and daily chart suggest such breakout is JUST AROUND THE CORNER and countdown is already on for probable MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS,
Targets RIL 4500
Relcap 5000
RPL 480
RNRL 350
and many more for many other stocks.

Prepare yourselves for new top.

Experience says Operators are long , Morons are short.


Disclaimer-
I hold RNRL and RPL and plan to buy more any stock i like for investment- do your own homework before taking any decision - these are pure personal views - MANY FRIENDS KNOW their MEANING-

warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
This message is my ADVANCE return gift to you all friends and wellwishers as today-
Shitla saptami - vad saptami of shravan is my BIRTHDAY .
Born on a day before LORD Krishna- Jai Shree Krishna- Pranam to Elder friends- Love to younger friends- Jaadu ki zappi to all-
Wish you all profits and peace of mind.

27th July

Posted by : gv

Did you check the junk folder?
Some times it can go there
Any how i will resend,confirm once recd
Take care
GV

27th July

Posted by : JAGDISH GABA

gv,though ur letter is reffered to radhika n it seems shehas replied some where but gv, by signing on MMB,we get a better opportunity to exchange our views,the mkt's activity will go on at its usual course but difficult to get priceless experience of friends like you
by the way i didnt get pictures you seem to have sent on my mail
any way better next time
bye,god bless you

27th July

Posted by : JAGDISH GABA

gv,though ur letter is reffered to radhika n it seems shehas replied some where but gv, by signing on MMB,we get a better opportunity to exchange our views,the mkt's activity will go on at its usual course but difficult to get priceless experience of friends like you
by the way i didnt get pictures you seem to have sent on my mail
any way better next time
bye,god bless you

27th July

Posted by : gv

Hi radhika_nandlal,
Sorry to but in,i do understand the sentiments
I think one has to quit market to be in MMB
Conversely if he quits the board he will be in the market making money
Regds
GV

27th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

GV,

Quitting MMB to make money in markets does not work for me... i make money coz i am chatting... the fear factor is out, the boredom is out... its so boring to trade with all the secrets close to your chest... i love to RA RA RA..i would be bored and a failure as a trader if i dint chat as i trade...so whenver i trade i am chatting... else i am not trading..

27th July

Posted by : gv

Hi radhika_nandlal,
Sorry to but in,i do understand the sentiments
I think one has to quit market to be in MMB
Conversely if he quits the board he will be in the market making money
Regds
GV

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear pints,
You may not be able to control your laughing - some boarders THOUGHT i was a BEAR !
Whenever PEOPLE get overcarried ,either in bullishness or bearishness at extreme points when OPPOSITE direction market turning was just around the corner, i have posted here without fail till now for benefit of those who do not know charts and for all friends .
Dipawali is definitely going to be good - there are more than 5000 companies to invest in- with so many fire crackers,
Dipawali will indeed be good for those who are ,
1. Not too greedy
2. Who will book profit in rally and reenter longs thereby reduce their costs
3. who will not over trade
4. who will not play f and o in spite of ANY REASON WHATSOEVER

warm regards and happy dipawali in advance to you too.
Vipul Lashkari

See Nifty at 5,100 levels in one-month's time: K&A Secs

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Sushil Kedia of K&A Securities said, “As of now, the patterns do not give me the gumption to imagine a move less than 4,150 area, That seems to be the outer limit on the downside and in fact there are far stronger possibilities of a much larger upside surprise than 4,600. I am ready to face a Nifty at 5,100 in the next one month.”

27th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Ghatikar,

If there is money we dont need for the immediate future invest in long term else if you take a loan for some requirement but ur money in stocks is languishing thats as good as taking a loan to play stocks isnt it? Thats why i only buy penny stocks in 1000 for long term. I dont have that kind of money which i dont need. I seem to need money all the time and my handbag gets emptier faster than my tummy...

i dont know where these guys have disapepared.. they have been very unfair and cruel to have disappeared without a trace. Even strangers we meet at the busstop have a smile as they leave, but here these guys like howcome, sona27, rita just vanished into thin air. I know how it feels to miss....i dont know how to help you get over the melancholy caused by their absence. Do watch some preity zinta's song sequence, may that would energize you.. lol lol

27th July

Posted by : PHGHATIKAR

Hi Radhika,

Communicating with you after a long time. Is everything O.K. at your end? These days, because of sustained fall in market, I am not at all taking any interest in looking at either index or the stock prices. Kindly let me know when will the market stabilise and the Bull Run resumes?

It seems, you are still very active both in the market as well as on MMB. I am missing many of the known Boarders viz., Sona, Rita and a few nickname boarders like morningstar, kamani, etc. Where have they disappeared?

Earlier, when the bull was at its peak, Share Market was one of the sources of additional income apart from my present permanent job. These days, my portfolio is shrinking day-by-day. I do not know what to do. In end of December, 2007 I was at 11+ lakhs (worth shares) today it has shrunk to as low as 40%.

Even I had to arrange college fee of my son (who is studying engineering at Gulbarga) by raising loan from Bank.

Your quick reply is solicited.

P H GHATIKAR