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Market Analysis - Technical View
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Dear amarakbar, As per me, your kind of calculations will work out only in an investing environment where matured investors dominate. But unfortunately in India we have mere speculation happening all the time and not so knowlegable investors act according to not at all knowledgeable market gossipers who are mainly the operators. Prices of individual stocks may go up and down in cycles based on the operator game. I feel there is not going to be any significant change in the scenario for the next six months. I do not anticipate any improvement in the overall situation in the next 3 weeks time....
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by :
amarakbar
Dear Friends,
The last few messages on tech board like 10 9 8 countdown and does anybody wonder why etc pointed that , for any clear view , waiting till sep 08 quarter end was necessary, TODAY 30 Sep 08 Tuesday is that QUARTERLY CLOSE DAY , thus an important close will be there for anybody interested in charts, that close will be PIVOTAL POINT for OCT to DEC 08 quarter , above this close bullish outlook and below it bearish outlook.
Today morning when i was looking at some charts , namely monthly, weekly and daily charts of selected shares , interesting formations like bullish positive divergence in 14 rsi indictor, multiple bottom zone , stoch about to give buy etc were clearly visible, thus,
MY VIEW is,
In next 3 weeks time that is, by 21 October 2008 current downmove will be over and market will fiercely turn upwards, reason will be shorts created at lower levels by weak bears.
Earliest possible turning can be anytime today onwards, for signal, daily close above its 3 day simple moving average will be good enough for me.
Wish you all profits and peace of mind and HAPPY DIWALI and PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR,
Wishing in advance as my next message may be after diwali around 31 Dec 2008 as now onwards i will be writing only on and around quarterly close days .
Warm regards as always,
Vipul Lashkari 
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What did i say??
Quote
In fact the SENSEX shows an RSI sell too so it might fall more than the Nifty.
Unquote
Dint the sensex fall more than the Nifty?
Yes if sensex is three times nifty then the fall has been more in sensex.....
In reply to:
Bradycardia and Tachycardia For 3rd Octob
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Dow seems to be suffering from Brady and tachy alternatively. Ystday it was brady today it will be tachy heart.
The NYSE TRIN at 0.2 is very overbought even when they sold off so much which is extremely bullish, yes extremely bullish. So shorters should think twice before they keep open short positions for the weekend.
Our own sensex and Nifty are very bearish in all aspects including TRIN. In fact the SENSEX shows an RSI sell too so it might fall more than the Nifty. But since bull power and bear power of Elder Ray favor bulls it might not close at day's lows. It may show some shortcovering at the EOD.
All are probabilities here. My success rate is only 25%. Those who follow me might be risking their money. I love to study markets and this is just a view.
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nifty is closed at 3824.55 ha ha who is playing this game, some one has the mastery . EWT just being lucky again, let us see if market remains lucky or not....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
if nifty close below 3824, something bad is in queue and bigger fire sale may be in offering.
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if nifty close below 3824, something bad is in queue and bigger fire sale may be in offering....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
I was expecting a bounce before new low is made on nifty but it didn't happened. i was expecting a bounce back before 3824 is hit but new low is made on nifty and that has opened another impulsive wave. new target on nifty is not good and it gives a level below 3200(in range of 3113).details of ewt chart is on my blog.
as $700 billion bailout got denied,who knows deal is over or they will meet again. I hope that today a big fire sale happens and pick some more fire sale goodies or scraps.
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Every one expects the bill to be passed in US during this week and markets to start rising from monday. Stck markets are very simple...
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Nifty short call given at 3864-58 tgt achived now 3834.....
courtesy stox and more...
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line of attack has been massive gainer from 2006....
In reply to:
Line of Attack
Posted by : sam_pd
There are still lot of stocks with massive +ve returns over June 2006 low and they might face the next line of attacks. Some of them which i track are as follows.
Security Name ClosingPrice(June2006 Low) Close Hi Lo Return
JSWSTEEL 341.8 506.4 1389 207 48.1568
PRAJIND 80.925 121.3 272.95 59.1 49.8919
SAIL 88.05 134.1 293 61.05 52.2998
SBIN 921.6 1405.45 2574 684.5 52.5011
TATAPOWER 579.8 915.45 1649.8 390 57.8907
HDFC 1272.65 2031.8 3262 962 59.6511
IPCALAB 352.75 564.9 795 235 60.1417
MCDOWELL-N 763.65 1231.5 2189.95 363.2 61.265
SUNPHARMA 890.7 1440.6 1556.9 670.55 61.738
GLENMARK 310.25 515.95 778 226 66.3014
KOTAKBANK 316.5 538.95 1438 220 70.2844
SESAGOA 67.01 116.15 220 40.45 73.3324
LT 1352.925 2347.25 4690 907.375 73.4945
ASIANPAINT 625.1 1183.15 1334 510 89.2737
CRISIL 1749.65 3393.3 4269.75 1201 93.9417
RELIANCE 974.95 1932.85 3298 840 98.2512
SHIV-VANI 248.4 494.15 737.85 173 98.9332
RELCAPITAL 538.75 1088.65 2924.3 320 102.0696
BANKINDIA 124.3 270.95 465 79.65 117.9807
IFCI 12 34 121.2 7.7 183.3333
UNITECH 37.7375 108.55 546.8 34.4175 187.6449
WELGUJ 76.05 227.85 539 46.65 199.6055
UTVSOF 218.65 718.9 1088.4 147 228.7903
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tisco below 400, waiting for some more panic selling, little bit of tisco below 400 won`t hurt....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
not a time to buy metal stocks at this point for investors,more lower levels expected in front line metal counter both ferrous and non-ferrous.
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
you are right, no of fundamental analysis expert on crude & USA is rising exponential, every second person has become expert in crude, USA, subprime and so....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : BearCartel
must be one of their TA teams, they have become very smart now, imagine they keep giving fundamental analysis on crude & USA every now & then :D
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Icici Bank Slides More Than 6 Pct; Stock Trading At 516 Rupees
We gave sell for ICICI at 546 in noon and now it has come to dead end.Those sold are luck and happy those wait and watch will watch till next week.
...
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Market is in critical position trailing to ICU Ward Both Nifty and Sensex in Red. Less hope for Green signal. IT , Metal and Oil and Gas brought it to ground. Steel in line to kick market to this level.
...
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Nifty Fut at 3847............now...
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We told you before few minutes to sell Nifty 3864 now see what happen.at 3847 still in doldrum.
courtesy stoxandmore --...
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Thank you sir. raj_tibs has already reminded me about these. I didn`t know that Reliance Money segregates these different types of options. Anyway, good to know.
Thanks,
Rudra...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Rudra,
CE Stands for CALL European style option, CA Stands for CALL AMERICAN style, The difference is That In european style the contract will be excercised on the Expiry day only not before that, In american style you can place excercise on any day ( excercise market open till 4:00 PM on each trading day ).
In india, ALL index contracts are european style, and The STOCKS are American style, so INDEX contracts can be excercised on the expiry day only, STOCK Contracts can be excercised on any day if you think you are in profit.
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Sell nifty 3864-58 tgt .............,3812 SL ...........
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