Market Analysis - Technical View

I better put an end to my predictions

Posted by : nightowl

i am active rn... i even take a run... but as we are getting older its getting hard to keep pace with our knees declining..i do take calciun, all the vits etc..but i have a thyroid prolem too, which brings my metabolic rate down.. and when that happens everyhing goes haywire.. in fact i just got up to go for my run..
she?he?.. has the brains..what i used to find odd was that was her saying that shes a novice in the market and yet she would post such an articulate and analytical post.. strange.. of course i can be wrong... the style of writing is typical of TC or bhawani,, but knowing bhawani.. i am almost sure its not her.. shes a kind person not at all malicious.. just amazingly bright, by contrast TC was always a bundle of nerves and rather vicious and cryptic.. could never figure her out... btw, she tracking you and micky..also strange.. whether shes a fake or not i dont really know.. this is a virtual world.. and only when you get to know somone well you realise whether they are who they say they are, all else is mere conjecture.
love ritts

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To Invest or to trade

Posted by : winwath

Investing - as far as I am concerned is for a time horizon of two years or longer.

Trading - this is easy - a few minuts, few days or a few weeks.

Lets us for a moment assume that all TV stations airing business news/stock/index news/earnings etc are banned - just like the smoking ban (LOL)

How would one know whether it is an investment environment or traders environment?

Very tough! since CNBC ZEE business and the likes are banned.

I would say - pull up a chart for the stock that you are interested in investing - draw Moving avgs - simple or expotential(my fav) for
5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 days.

When the chart pops up - it will look like a ribbon under or above the stock price on the chart

if the price is above the ribbon - all ribbons - it is an investors environment - load up ur fav stocks - go on vacation - come back in 2 years - cash you money and pay for the vaccation.

If the stock price is below the ribbon - even one ribbon - postpone that vacation - its a traders market - u are required to be here to pull the trigger.

Hey - this is just a place to start with - please ensure you do your homework before buy stokcs and taking a two year holiday ;)

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : rudra_sinha

Dear winwath,

I was in the last year of 10+2 in 1996 and you started learning tech analysis that time. This itself tells us how comfortable you would be reading charts and it makes sense that you take aggressive position in the market because you are very very confident which you have gained over last decade. I bow to you with respect mate.

The reason I was giving the straddle strategy in this forum is because I don`t expect everybody as comfortable in TA as you. :)) Hope you understand my position.

What is your opinion about the market now? I see further downside. Heavy downside rather. 3600 in Nifty looks possible. Let me know what you are reading in the charts.

Cheers,
Rudra

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Winwath,

From 2006 to 2008 you have tripled ur money trading Indian markets. Kudos.. this apart from a regular job i presume? If u r trading for a tripling of money in market with such risks its not worth it if one has to give up on as job... so i presume u have used stockmarkets to add to ur networth, ur main income being ur job? How old are u by the way.. if u started in 1996 assuming u were 16 you should be 27 now?

Most men on MMB have begun stockmarkets at the age of 16... thats why the presumption.

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : rudra_sinha

Dear winwath,

I was in the last year of 10+2 in 1996 and you started learning tech analysis that time. This itself tells us how comfortable you would be reading charts and it makes sense that you take aggressive position in the market because you are very very confident which you have gained over last decade. I bow to you with respect mate.

The reason I was giving the straddle strategy in this forum is because I don`t expect everybody as comfortable in TA as you. :)) Hope you understand my position.

What is your opinion about the market now? I see further downside. Heavy downside rather. 3600 in Nifty looks possible. Let me know what you are reading in the charts.

Cheers,
Rudra

Look at the NYSE TRIN!!

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

After such a massive sell off the TRIN of NYSE is 0.08.... which is height of overbought lol and with such a divergence where the dow sold off but NYSE went up this is a highly bullish indicator. Of course i am comparing dow prices and NYSE TRIN.It would be better to compare DOW TRIN AND DOW PRICES instead which i will do from today.

Watch this space, let me check DOW`S TRIN.

The DOW however shows accumulation so the TRIN of dow should be overbought.

Dow closed lower though LOL... but sometimes these bullish scents are picked by the markets before dow picks its own scent and trades in the green. I guess we should be optimistic for the coming week.

However let me check Nifty and DOW TRIN.

Just plain views, i have been right only 20% of the times so dont trade based on these predictions.

Bull & Bear phase of the market

Posted by : ank1977

Stock markets move up and down in recurring cycles. A prolonged rise in stock prices is known as a bull run while a consistent decline is called a bear market. These are different from short-lived upward or downward “corrections” in stock prices. Typically, a bull run or a bear market means at least a 20% change in the index value. Nobody can accurately predict stock market movements, but they can be explained. Here’s what moves the stock markets.

BULL MARKETS
Bullishness in the markets can be the result of an economic boom which in turn fuels optimism among investors. The Indian markets witnessed the longest bull run during the past five years (see graph below), a period during which the BSE Sensex gave a spectacular annualised return of almost 47%.

Indicators of a Bull Run
• Rising corporate earnings
• Low inflation
• Low interest rates
• High fund flows and liquidity
• Increased investor interest


Bull phase: 15 May 2003 to 8 Jan 2008
Sensex peak: 20873
Sensex low: 3012
Rise: 592%


BEAR PHASES
Bear phases occur in times of an economic downturn and when there is all-round pessimism. Unlike a correction, a bear market is marked by a consistent fall in stock prices over a long period of time. The Indian markets could slip into a bear phase. Since the beginning of this year, the Sensex has lost almost 50%.

Indicators of a Bear Phase
• Falling corporate earnings
• Rising inflation
High or rising interest rates
• High fund outflows and liquidity crunch
• Low investor interest


Bear market: 14 Feb 2000 to 24 Sep 2001
Sensex peak: 6151
Sensex low: 2627
Decline: 57%

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : rudra_sinha

I refer to intraday technical charts and decide my intraday strategy. Yesterday, after market opening, charts told me to buy PUTs. Now, I play with straddles, i.e. I buy the Nifty PUT and CALL of the same strike price. I had 3900 straddle that I took position in 2 days back. So, when charts gave me sell signal, I squared off my CALL and left the PUT alone and Nifty went down and down and down.

Towards the end of the day, when I saw market near 3800, I squared off my 3900 PUTs and now took position in 3800 straddle. This ensures that I book profit as well as stay protected.

For somebody who isn`t so comfortable reading charts, can simply hold on to the 3900 straddle until it becomes profitable and then square off the whole straddle and take position in another straddle closer to Nifty value.

Thanks,
Rudra

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : winwath

Agreed Rudra. I will always get of a trade that is going against me - max 5 - 8 %. However, it is quite rare.

The charts foretell the unfortunate event in the form of weakness. How often has one come across where the stock has been trending down and all of a sudden - spurts to make new highs. Almost never - history speaks for itself and the charts can confirm it.

Charts are to index/Stocks what horoscope is to human beings. To a large extent charts can foretell.

I can vouch for that since I've been learning charting since 1996 and continuing to do so.

Good Luck Rudra