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Market Analysis - Fundamental View
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Dear melathethil
Well said...
It is extremely important for each person who wants to invest directly into secondary market to do his/her own research.
It is a pity these analysts including damani are just as good as us despite being for years in the market as professionals.
Trudge on...
Reliabull ...
In reply to:
SP Tulsian-
Posted by :
melathethil
Dear Boarders
It is a lesson to learn in one`s life. It is not fair to blame anybody for market downfall. In my opinion, we must listen to all comments and recommendations. The decision made must be depends on one`s own risk. In a bear market like this we can not follow anybodys recommendation. These days one could make enough research about market using different datas available in various sites. Hope all boarders will use this scenario as learning. The market is not going to go away in any direction very fast.We have enough time to plan all strategies. Wish all boarders a good time.
Stock market is a platform to learn different philosophies. Let us take this opportunities to improve ourself.
Continue to participate in the market using ones own wisdom
Good luck
Melathethil
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We can see atleast the fundamentals of INDIAN economy improving again.
Inflationtion softening.
Crude is declining very fast.
Liquidity is very well maintained.
Expecting further interest rate cuts.
Commodities softening.
Fiscal defecit will improve on import bills.
There is still a very good rate of FDI.
...
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70$ is not very far for crude oil.
It will give a huge support to rupee and help fighting inflation.
Rupee strength will reflect in our fiscal defecit situation.
Week oil prices will boost the global liquidity and will give some money to all those countries which are in credit crisis specially in US.
It is suggested to all the retail investors not to get panic and start buying good stocks HEAVILY.
...
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i thing growth slows down now ,market can come at 6500-7000 points ,stocks prices comes down slowly, market can bounce from here only after 3 years...
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Hi
Here is an analysis of delivery volume of NSE cash market. Please scroll the attached XLs and read the red marked numbers. You will notice that heavy weight on Nifty is having delivery volume of less than 20%! It means that more than 80% volume is out of intra-day shorts! Result is: massive fall and then intraday recovery! Such shorts are covered on an intraday basis, who is gaining! A point to think about!
If India wants its investors to be protected from losing faith in the system; bear hammering has to be stopped till the time market returns to normalcy! It is so strong that only money bag investor earns in this market that too on MTM of short sold positions!
I think solution should be:
1. Further position building in F&O market should not be allowed. (This is a measure suggested for temporary period and should not be termed as closing F&O markets.) This will save short selling by large bear operators including FIIs / P notes. It should be done also at Singapore Nifty where it’s seen that early morning before India market opens, on relatively smaller volume they bring down Nifty prices.
2. In cash market, all transactions MUST be settled in delivery by buy and sell side investors / traders; once again till the time normalcy is established in our / global markets.
If these two measures are implemented India ’s insurance companies and MFs along with long term investors will find a genuine support for adding fresh investment in current times; in turn, it will result in supporting the market from getting further distressed.
Needless to say but important to observe that huge fall of such nature can weaken best of the banks as their collateral values will dip beyond repairs and in turn invite the situation of defaults / bad-debts.
Thank you for your attention.
Have a nice day....
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This view is echoed even by experts here on CNBC who feel that emerging markets may not feel that much pinch as DOW and Nasdaq are currently experiencing. ...
In reply to:
Wake up call for Govt.
Posted by :
Leave it.
CHIDAMBARAM QUOTES --this is what he has said and done. I have no record for PM.
Mr.P.C said;
* Our exposure to the sub-prime mortgage crisis is almost negligible
* The world is round. Action taken in one part of the world will impact the rest of it. I`m sure our (RBI) governor is in touch with governors of other central banks
* What is happening in the stock market is not a reflection of the liquidity situation. Stock market is driven by sentiments
* Inflation continues to be a priority. At the moment, liquidity is the primary issue
* Rupee will find an appropriate level
* India will grow 8 per cent this year, making it the second-fastest growing economy in the world
* India will grow at double the average growth rate of the world
Chidambaram added that the fundamentals of the economy were strong.
Earlier this week, he had said he expected the economy to grow 8 per cent this fiscal and 9 per cent in 2009-10. However, other forecasts say the growth rate will ease to 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal.
Echoing Chidambaram, Nath said India had strong fundamentals to tide over the global financial crisis. “Our regulatory mechanism for the financial system should be a model for the world. We have no bubbles to burst. Indeed, FIIs are pulling out money but much of this is a frenzy effect and has nothing to do with the fundamentals of our economy”, he said. “In the United States, it is a question of return of investments while in India every one is talking of return on investments.
Source: Business Standard
v.krishnamoorthy
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CHIDAMBARAM QUOTES --this is what he has said and done. I have no record for PM.
Mr.P.C said;
* Our exposure to the sub-prime mortgage crisis is almost negligible
* The world is round. Action taken in one part of the world will impact the rest of it. I`m sure our (RBI) governor is in touch with governors of other central banks
* What is happening in the stock market is not a reflection of the liquidity situation. Stock market is driven by sentiments
* Inflation continues to be a priority. At the moment, liquidity is the primary issue
* Rupee will find an appropriate level
* India will grow 8 per cent this year, making it the second-fastest growing economy in the world
* India will grow at double the average growth rate of the world
Chidambaram added that the fundamentals of the economy were strong.
Earlier this week, he had said he expected the economy to grow 8 per cent this fiscal and 9 per cent in 2009-10. However, other forecasts say the growth rate will ease to 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal.
Echoing Chidambaram, Nath said India had strong fundamentals to tide over the global financial crisis. “Our regulatory mechanism for the financial system should be a model for the world. We have no bubbles to burst. Indeed, FIIs are pulling out money but much of this is a frenzy effect and has nothing to do with the fundamentals of our economy”, he said. “In the United States, it is a question of return of investments while in India every one is talking of return on investments.
Source: Business Standard
v.krishnamoorthy...
In reply to:
Wake up call for Govt.
Posted by :
truecharts
What good work has the FM done in the past 4.5 years... If u know please tell me... FM is not qualified Economist...
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As there are no supports holding in stock markets at the moment,it is better to discuss about resistance levels for some time.......
In reply to:
Sensex near term resistance=10000
Posted by :
Bull 2008
Dear Marketman
The only sensex support is at 8800 levels we any way will be breaking 10000 levels soon.
Regards
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What good work has the FM done in the past 4.5 years... If u know please tell me... FM is not qualified Economist...
...
In reply to:
Wake up call for Govt.
Posted by :
pup
This is the time for PM and FM to wake up and put their intelligent skills to bail out indian market from the crisis otherwise investors and people of india shall throw them out in next election. All good works done in the last four years shall go to dustbin if Govt. fails to put life into indian stock market.
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This is the time for PM and FM to wake up and put their intelligent skills to bail out indian market from the crisis otherwise investors and people of india shall throw them out in next election. All good works done in the last four years shall go to dustbin if Govt. fails to put life into indian stock market....
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Market is in Bad mood.
Still on rolling back mood and testing investers....
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Dear Marketman
The only sensex support is at 8800 levels we any way will be breaking 10000 levels soon.
Regards...
In reply to:
Sensex near term resistance=10000
Posted by :
marketman
As there is no stop of bath sessions on street,the indian sensex may face resitance at around 10000 level,for some time....
Buyers are disappearing in stock markets due to collapsing of stock markets worldwide....
Pl note that few fundamentalists already informed that the sensex is fairly valed at 10000 levels for this fiscal.... if the liquidity/sentiment improves in the system,the sensex may stabilise at around 10000,otherwise more falls are not ruled out even from 10000....
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As there is no stop of bath sessions on street,the indian sensex may face resitance at around 10000 level,for some time....
Buyers are disappearing in stock markets due to collapsing of stock markets worldwide....
Pl note that few fundamentalists already informed that the sensex is fairly valed at 10000 levels for this fiscal.... if the liquidity/sentiment improves in the system,the sensex may stabilise at around 10000,otherwise more falls are not ruled out even from 10000.......
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Dear Boarders
It is a lesson to learn in one`s life. It is not fair to blame anybody for market downfall. In my opinion, we must listen to all comments and recommendations. The decision made must be depends on one`s own risk. In a bear market like this we can not follow anybodys recommendation. These days one could make enough research about market using different datas available in various sites. Hope all boarders will use this scenario as learning. The market is not going to go away in any direction very fast.We have enough time to plan all strategies. Wish all boarders a good time.
Stock market is a platform to learn different philosophies. Let us take this opportunities to improve ourself.
Continue to participate in the market using ones own wisdom
Good luck
Melathethil ...
In reply to:
SP Tulsian-
Posted by :
hembhat
Tulsian`s monumental failures were in realty & infra stocks that he recommended. All these stocks have been corrected by about 80%. GMR Infra was recommended for Rs. 250 for a sure target of Rs. 500 in one year. Even after this he continues to appear on TV as analyst. His paid site may be a fraud, as he might have wanted to get out of those stocks recommended, just like many brokerage houses recommended Aban Offshore for a target of Rs. 5000.
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Tulsian`s monumental failures were in realty & infra stocks that he recommended. All these stocks have been corrected by about 80%. GMR Infra was recommended for Rs. 250 for a sure target of Rs. 500 in one year. Even after this he continues to appear on TV as analyst. His paid site may be a fraud, as he might have wanted to get out of those stocks recommended, just like many brokerage houses recommended Aban Offshore for a target of Rs. 5000....
In reply to:
SP Tulsian- "No downward risk"
Posted by :
reliabull
Dear Moderator/Tulsian
If you have guts then don`t delete this message and face it
Dear All
The past 22 stock recommendations from SP Tulsian`s subscription site. Particular attention has been given to those stocks which acc to him qualify as `minimum downward risk`
Please evaluate and opine if any recommendation by any analyst or brokerage house can be trusted. People talk of beating up doctors if a patient dies, what about such analysts who are also paid heavily for their services and bring about huge losses to faithful investors
South India Bank – Oct 3rd 2008
The share qualifies a good buy at Rs.106, which has potential to rise to Rs.140 in the next 12 months with minimum downside.
CMP–96(-13% in 3 sessions)
Madras Alu Co–Sep 29
Share now ruling at Rs.105 has very limited downside and may not fall to double digits and once it settles at certain level would see renewed interest in the stock, which could take the share price to rise to Rs.125 soon.
CMP–81(-24% )
Jindal Saw–Sep 26
Share at Rs.605 qualifies a good buy, which has potential to rise to Rs.750 in the next 6 – 8 months.
CMP–409(-35% in 2 weeks)
Himadri Chemicals–Sep 23
Share qualifies a good buy at Rs.350, which has potential to rise to Rs.450 by April 09, thus giving a rise of about 30% in about 8 – 10 months. Downside risk is minimal from the present levels.
CMP–267(-25%)
Oriental Bank of Commerce–Sep 19
Share now ruling at Rs 176 is discounting the expected earning by about 6.50 times and is at a PBV of 0.75:1 thus having very limited downside risk.
CMP–156(-11%)
EID Parry’s-Sep 16
Share now ruling at Rs.200 looks a good buy which has potential to give a 40% return in 12 months time, with virtually no downward risk.
CMP–168(-20%)
Walchandnagar–Sep 12
At the current market price of Rs.278, Walchandnagar is good investment decision as it is poised to take a giant leap into the future. The signing of the nuclear deal will catapult the company into the big league.
CMP 166(-45% in 3 weeks)
HCC–Sep 9
Share at Rs.102 is a good infrastructure play, which has very limited downside with prospects of giving a 25% return on an annualized basis over the next 2 – 3 years
CMP–54(-50% in a month)
HDIL–Sep 5
Share at Rs.305 qualifies a risk free buy which has potential to rise to Rs.400 in the next 10 – 12 months with minimal downward risk.
CMP–113(-60% in a month)
Apar Industries–Aug 29
A safe and secure bet at Rs.177 for medium term investors with no downside risk
CMP-120(-30% )
Rain Commodities–Aug 22
Share qualifies a good buy at Rs.218, which can rise to Rs.300 in 8 – 10 months with minimum downside risk.
CMP–162(-25%)
Bartronics–Aug
Share at Rs.180 looks an ideal investment which has potential to move to Rs.250 in the next 12 months.
CMP–113(-40%)
Texmaco–Aug 14
A safe bet at Rs.1,300 levels for Rs.10 face value for a return of almost 50% in less than one year.
CMP–876(-30%)
ACE–Aug 12
Share is now ruling at Rs.71 which discount its FY 09 earnings by about 11 times. Current share price is at quite attractive levels with very limited downside risk from here.
CMP–36(-50% in 2 months)
Sakti Sugar–Aug 8
Share now ruling at Rs.110 looks a better buy with very limited downside risk of Rs.15 while on the upper side it has potential to rise to Rs.200 in the next 12 to 18 months.
CMP–64(-40%)
Eastern Silk–Aug 5 (A heavily battered stock)
Share now ruling at Rs.17 has been grossly neglected by the market which has the potential to rise to Rs.30 in the next 6 – 8 months, with virtually no downside risk. A safe bet at Rs.17.
CMP–15(-10%)
Bata–Aug 1
Share at Rs.150 makes an ideal investment which is capable to give a 30% return on an annualized basis over the next 2 – 3 years.CMP–101(-50%)
Jindal Polyfilm–Jul 29
Investors who are looking for a safe investment, capable to give an annualized return of 20% over the next 3 – 4 years, can go for this stock at Rs.250 which has virtually no downside risk.CMP–179(-40%)
Kirloskar Oil Engines–Jul 18
Share at Rs.82 is quite underpriced which makes it a good buy with virtually no downside risk while having potential to move to three digit soon and can give 40% return over next 12 months from the current levels.
CMP–69(-14%)
Ranbaxy–Jul 15
Even if it falls below Rs 405 one needs to hold it for a month to see price moving back to Rs 475 to Rs 500 levels. Downward risk is virtually nil.
CMP – 279(-45% in a A group stock)
GTC – Jul 10
Hence, share at Rs.140 is an excellent bet with virtually no downward risk. Though we have recommended the stock in the past at Rs.270 and it moved up from there but now, having corrected to Rs.140 gives a good opportunity to buy at such a cheap rate. Those holding it are advised to remain invested with atleast 12 months view to reap rich harvest.
CMP – 74 (-45%)
Does it prove a point??
Reliabull
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Udayan's Market Outlook
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Investors should stay in cash, not sell in panic | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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