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Moneycontrol >> Messageboard >> Market View >> Market Analysis - Technical View
   You are here :     Moneycontrol     MMB   Market View   Market Analysis - Technical View

Market Analysis - Technical View

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06 Oct 2008 07:56

Bear Is King

Posted by : tring
View full thread (1 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

These days Bear is KING
so dance on the tune of song bear is King
Hope this song will end this week

tring
...

06 Oct 2008 07:19

Dear Mohan,

Straddles can not earn in both directions at any time, One declines and one will advance, Time decay will sets in and eat up the Premium, Let`s say you have 3900 straddle , If nifty moving up, CALL is gaining and PUT slowly declining, and if Nifty Moving down from 3900 The PUT will be in profit and the Call will be in minus, The trick is that one value should offset the other price completly and still give profits...

You need to take a straddles if you expect the price will move sharply on either side..

But in the initial days , if there is a volatility the premiums might be intact, example: if you take PUT at 200, and call at 210 for 3900 strike, when the NIFTY touch 3700, your PUT would have been at 380, and the call would have been at 140 or 150 ( because of the Premium ),If that is the case then you can square off both positions, still you would have made 120 rs. in total. ( But this might not be the case in the last week of expiration ),

Once you made the profit, you can move the straddle to 3700 Strike.

Let me know if you have any queries...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : mohanji

Dear Aru,
First of all let me convey my gratitude to you for attending my queris so sincerely.You are indeed doing a great job for newbie like me and I must confess that I hv learnt a lot interacting with you and others like Rudra, Rajtib,oldtimer,Radhikaji and esher.Now come to my question.As per your msg do I take it that long straddle will yeild gains in both directions? I hv notice that long straddle declined during last few days.At what stage it will start giving gains? If I wait more, time decay may start.Your veiws please.Regards

05 Oct 2008 23:00

i had a feeling that she wasnt well... was worried...pls take care of her and ureself...
perhaps going to her mom will give her time to rest it out.. you know we women can get complete rest only with our mother.. this is an undeniable fact.. there no need to be worried about anything there
regards
Rittu...

In reply to:

I better put an end to my predictions

Posted by : JAGDISH GABA

hi,how are you?
yes her condition is not ok
one her problem and then tension of her own problem
so she has planned to go to her mom`s house for a week or so
Any way life goes on like this
rest is fine,regards-regareds

05 Oct 2008 22:58

Dear Aru,
First of all let me convey my gratitude to you for attending my queris so sincerely.You are indeed doing a great job for newbie like me and I must confess that I hv learnt a lot interacting with you and others like Rudra, Rajtib,oldtimer,Radhikaji and esher.Now come to my question.As per your msg do I take it that long straddle will yeild gains in both directions? I hv notice that long straddle declined during last few days.At what stage it will start giving gains? If I wait more, time decay may start.Your veiws please.Regards...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear Mohanji,

The long straddle, also known as buy straddle or simply "straddle", is a neutral strategy in options trading that involve the simultaneously buying of a put and a call of the same underlying stock, striking price and expiration date.

Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant volatility in the near term.

In layman terms, suppose If a stock trades at 50, You will take a put and call at same strike price of 50 , let`s say the premium is 2 rs for put and 2 rs for a Call, If the stock trades in 50 when the option expires you will lose 4 rs ( put and call )for you to get a profit, The stock should move up more than 54 or Move down below than 46.

Since we have many trading days left , still if the Nifty does not break below 3800 or break above 4000 you will not see a significant movement in the PUT and Call prices.

let me know if you have any questions

05 Oct 2008 22:53

hi,how are you?
yes her condition is not ok
one her problem and then tension of her own problem
so she has planned to go to her mom`s house for a week or so
Any way life goes on like this
rest is fine,regards-regareds...

In reply to:

I better put an end to my predictions

Posted by : nightowl

thanks gaba
hows veena
my love to her
rittu

05 Oct 2008 22:46

Dear Mohanji,

The long straddle, also known as buy straddle or simply "straddle", is a neutral strategy in options trading that involve the simultaneously buying of a put and a call of the same underlying stock, striking price and expiration date.

Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant volatility in the near term.

In layman terms, suppose If a stock trades at 50, You will take a put and call at same strike price of 50 , let`s say the premium is 2 rs for put and 2 rs for a Call, If the stock trades in 50 when the option expires you will lose 4 rs ( put and call )for you to get a profit, The stock should move up more than 54 or Move down below than 46.

Since we have many trading days left , still if the Nifty does not break below 3800 or break above 4000 you will not see a significant movement in the PUT and Call prices.

let me know if you have any questions...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : mohanji

Dear Rudra,
You hv suggested 3900 straddle for those who are not comfortable with charts.I am trying to understand the relation between pace of straddle and nifty.unde present level of nifty ,is 3900 straddle bullish in nature or otherwise?...I mean what is the nature of this straddle?....at what level of nifty it will be profitable ?Regards

05 Oct 2008 22:28

Many nifty stocks are hitting year low, some has hit two year low but Nifty still show 45% return and defty shows 25% return over June 2006 low.

Simple reason, heavy nifty weightage stocks are still giving massive return from June 2006 Low. from Last few days line of attack for selling is shifting to them.

if we consider top 10 nifty weightage stocks, 7 stocks are still giving good gain.

apart from TCS,INFY and ICICI BANK, other top 7 are still giving +returns and reliance 81% ,LT 71%,SBI 61%,BHEL 34%,NTPC 26%,ONGC 14% are their returns.

Line of attack is shifting to them so watch out for any panic buying opportunities. ...

05 Oct 2008 22:24

Dear Osteoporous,
Thanks for the info.Regards...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : osteoporous

Dear mohanji

Because unlike stock options, index options can only be cash settled.

Regards.

05 Oct 2008 22:21

thanks gaba
hows veena
my love to her
rittu...

In reply to:

I better put an end to my predictions

Posted by : JAGDISH GABA

nightowl,
reply of your 1st part
Delay process of degeneration
undertake yoga and pranayam
do kapalbhati
do real cycling in ur compound
let loose your dogs n run after them
dont order food but serve food(kidding)
avoid oil n salt
take liquid diet than cellulose
AVOID GOGAPEI
EARLY TO BED,EARLY TO RISE,MAKE A WOMAN1 HEALTHY 2WEALTHY3WISE
NO 2&3,YOU ARE ALREADY
BYE N TAKE CARE.

05 Oct 2008 21:52

Dear mohanji

Because unlike stock options, index options can only be cash settled.

Regards....

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : mohanji

Dear Raj,
Q
CE is a european call option - it can be exercised only after the trading session closes on the DAY THE CONTRACT EXPIRES. All index options are european options.

CA is an american call option - it can be exercised on close of trading on ANY DAY Till the day of expiry... All options for individual stocks are American options.

IT IS VERY RISKY TO WRITE american options.

IT IS QUITE SAFE TO WRITE european options.
UQ

Any logical reasons for choosing european for index and American for Stocks?Regards

05 Oct 2008 20:10

Dear Rudra,
You hv suggested 3900 straddle for those who are not comfortable with charts.I am trying to understand the relation between pace of straddle and nifty.unde present level of nifty ,is 3900 straddle bullish in nature or otherwise?...I mean what is the nature of this straddle?....at what level of nifty it will be profitable ?Regards...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : rudra_sinha

I refer to intraday technical charts and decide my intraday strategy. Yesterday, after market opening, charts told me to buy PUTs. Now, I play with straddles, i.e. I buy the Nifty PUT and CALL of the same strike price. I had 3900 straddle that I took position in 2 days back. So, when charts gave me sell signal, I squared off my CALL and left the PUT alone and Nifty went down and down and down.

Towards the end of the day, when I saw market near 3800, I squared off my 3900 PUTs and now took position in 3800 straddle. This ensures that I book profit as well as stay protected.

For somebody who isn`t so comfortable reading charts, can simply hold on to the 3900 straddle until it becomes profitable and then square off the whole straddle and take position in another straddle closer to Nifty value.

Thanks,
Rudra

05 Oct 2008 20:00

I am sorry radigs - dont feel comfortable posting more information than what I already did.

add me to your YM - we can chat more about it

bg1922...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Winwath,

Ur 50 years old? Me too 46 years now.

What did u mean when u say your income depends on the US$?? Are u doing freelance online jobs.. if i have to do it how can i do it.. are u a software engineer? May i ask the nature of your job?I want to do something while i trade, instead of typing on MMB I can work onlne for some company i thought.. what do u suggest?

05 Oct 2008 19:56

Winwath,

Ur 50 years old? Me too 46 years now.

What did u mean when u say your income depends on the US$?? Are u doing freelance online jobs.. if i have to do it how can i do it.. are u a software engineer? May i ask the nature of your job?I want to do something while i trade, instead of typing on MMB I can work onlne for some company i thought.. what do u suggest?...

In reply to:

HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by : winwath

I am unlike most men. I started late in the market. I was 38 when I started.

I managed to put 1/2 a century under my belt. ;)

I do not have a job. However, I am self employed and make a decent income.

My income depends on the US$. I am having fun these days, with xchg rate of Rs 47 to a $. You can say this is the markets way of giving me a pay raise.

I know - soon, I may have to take a pay cut - these 47 levels cant sustain for long

05 Oct 2008 19:49

I suggest a us site - good for learning the various indicators and patterns

stockcharts dot com...

In reply to:

To Invest or to trade

Posted by : pagal hui mai

hi sir,
i am only 20. i am treding in matket from last year,i don`t know how to see & analys stock.can u saggest me pls repiy.
regards

05 Oct 2008 18:14

My views which have been wrong 80% of the time. LOL. my humble views again.

Dow is showing accumulation which is bullish.

Dow`s TRIN is oversold at 0.9 which is acceptable and canot be considered very indicative coz it scaled 200 point and fell 150 points so until you know what the TRIN was when it scaled 200 points you cannot compare it with the 150 point slide TRIN... all in all its oversold.

The NIFTY is bearish in all aspects including a hugely oversold TRIN at 1.8.

If by any chance asian markets open flat to green and later dow jones futures opens green, then the shorts reflected in the NIFTY TRIN of 1.8 could get covered.

I have two 4200 CE October expiry bought at Rs 48....

In reply to:

Look at the NYSE TRIN!!

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

After such a massive sell off the TRIN of NYSE is 0.08.... which is height of overbought lol and with such a divergence where the dow sold off but NYSE went up this is a highly bullish indicator. Of course i am comparing dow prices and NYSE TRIN.It would be better to compare DOW TRIN AND DOW PRICES instead which i will do from today.

Watch this space, let me check DOW`S TRIN.

The DOW however shows accumulation so the TRIN of dow should be overbought.

Dow closed lower though LOL... but sometimes these bullish scents are picked by the markets before dow picks its own scent and trades in the green. I guess we should be optimistic for the coming week.

However let me check Nifty and DOW TRIN.

Just plain views, i have been right only 20% of the times so dont trade based on these predictions.

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