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Moneycontrol.com >> Messageboard >> Category >> Market View >> Market Outlook - Short Term
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13 Oct 2008 19:53

1309

I am surprised to find a lot of talks have already started like `bad days are over`,buy for LT etc etc on the very first day of mkt correction.I would like to share my views on this issue

Pl.find out to which catagory you belong

1.Investor (more than 3 years)
2.Traders ( a few months)
3 Traders ( a few days)

After selecting the stock in which you wish to invest,check its chart for 200,50 and 9 dema

Investors should get in to the scrip only when the price moves above 200 dema and stays there for few days.Similarly catagory 2 and 3 should go by 50 and 9 dema

After buying, the same levels can be kept as SL if you so desire.

Those who have a large PF,buy PEs to hedge,when the mkt goes up trim your PF to your comfort level.

Last but not the least,

When the butcher is sharpening the knife,the goat should not be thinking that he is going to cut the rope on its neck to free it but make use of that intermission to escape.

Good Luck






...

13 Oct 2008 19:52

Yeah.. that is a bit strange!...

That continious MAD SELLing by those FIIs give an indication of things to come!

I am still in the mode of figuring out what could be the trigger for Deep Bear Correction if that has to happen at all.

As you know, Nationalisation of banks are not good for Equity Street although may be good for Main Street! Similarly, generating liquidity for stock market is not good in medium term as that shows that there are some inherent problems with equity markets.

I have still some time to figure out that BS Big Joker of the GAME to support all those TA data! Let us see! I expect that such trigger to be PLAYed within 3 weeks (by first week of November) in order to support those technical data and facts :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Ofcourse BSR,
I am not challenging your trading skills. If you are confident of what you are doing, then surely, gains will come your way. Surprisingly, FII again sold 1060 crores today huh. Sure looks scary.
all the best.
lovemeall26

13 Oct 2008 19:41

Ofcourse BSR,
I am not challenging your trading skills. If you are confident of what you are doing, then surely, gains will come your way. Surprisingly, FII again sold 1060 crores today huh. Sure looks scary.
all the best.
lovemeall26...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

There are many Bettting strategies, lovemeall26! :)

As a positional trader, GAME is a bit different from a day trader! :)

Looking at current data, I see the Nifty is bound to go to 3100 level sooner or lator. Now it is a matter of time before that happens unless something changes drastically.

FM RBI Sebi can not come on TV on Daily Basis when those Big PLAYers are still continuing their MAD SELLing.. More than the normal accepted 53%...

So, it is NOT like that continue to HOLD same SHORTs forever...

As rallies were expected, first build a LIGHT positions. Just square off those SHORTs immediatly first and Build those same SHORTs at Higher level!

Of course, this can be done if someone is not too GREEDY or Highly Aggressive so as to utilise those GAP DOWN or GAP UP opportunities to make MONEY!! :) For this, patterns need to be checked! Only when a peculiar pattern like famous PUMP and DUMP is BUILT UP against the general data like MAD SELLing by FIIs, then go for SHORTing heavily as that is more a work of Operator than normal traders or investors !

I hope you got some idea!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

13 Oct 2008 19:36

Yes novice1000,
Such newbies who get lured into the instant gains of the stock markets are the actual ones who get wiped out the first due to their reckless trading. I felt, she was treading into dangerous territory and hence wanted to warn her and make her aware of the pitfalls here at the markets. But maybe, she will learn it the hard way, coz it is said when someone tells me something, I will never remember it, but when that person slaps me on the face and tells me that same thing, I will NEVER forget it. Thats the way the world moves. take care
lovemeall26...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : novice1000

dear lovemeall,

Quote:Reckless trading in futures with inadequate capital backup for any margin shortfalls is an extremely dangerous game. Maybe, you got it right this time, but believe me the day it goes wrong, your entire capital can get wiped out.

Unquote:Again the right msg in the right time.This is the time for traders to reduce the market exposure to bearable levels to withstand any unforeseen wild movement in either direction.

regards

13 Oct 2008 19:34

There are many Bettting strategies, lovemeall26! :)

As a positional trader, GAME is a bit different from a day trader! :)

Looking at current data, I see the Nifty is bound to go to 3100 level sooner or lator. Now it is a matter of time before that happens unless something changes drastically.

FM RBI Sebi can not come on TV on Daily Basis when those Big PLAYers are still continuing their MAD SELLing.. More than the normal accepted 53%...

So, it is NOT like that continue to HOLD same SHORTs forever...

As rallies were expected, first build a LIGHT positions. Just square off those SHORTs immediatly first and Build those same SHORTs at Higher level!

Of course, this can be done if someone is not too GREEDY or Highly Aggressive so as to utilise those GAP DOWN or GAP UP opportunities to make MONEY!! :) For this, patterns need to be checked! Only when a peculiar pattern like famous PUMP and DUMP is BUILT UP against the general data like MAD SELLing by FIIs, then go for SHORTing heavily as that is more a work of Operator than normal traders or investors !

I hope you got some idea!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello BSR,
Do you mean , you will hold unto your shorts till nifty hits 4100, thats a bad strategy to play brother. I also used to foolishly do the same thing last year, but now have learnt my lessons well. It is better to get out in small losses and turn your trade into the right flow rather than trading against the flow and waiting helplessly for things to turn and see your capital getting blown up in the air. This is just a suggestion and I am sure you must be knowing how to play your game well. take care
lovemeall26

13 Oct 2008 19:34

dear ravi,

I didnt get hurt.Just wanted the picture to be more clear for every one.

As far as the erosion in capital is concerned, FM cant do much.This is the result of a global phenomenon and lopsided policies.

When ever excesses happen in markets, even a one percent sell off in equity can create havoc in markets.

During the times of excesses people get stuck on the higher side.When markets start collapsing and reaches the realistic levels, investors who already got driedup stand helpess in markets.

That kind of situation creates momentary demand side vacuum and infinite supply resulting in a free fall.

It is exactly the opposite of excessive liquidity creaing excesses in markets.Liquidity crunch creates some excesses on the down side too.But this doesnt last long.But it doesnt mean that markets witness a full bounce from the bottoms.Bounce can be some 15 to 20% higher from the final bottom and that level will be followed by a long consolidation period.

We are yet to see the bottom.

Hope the picture is clear.

We are here to exhange our views.So you dont need to be sorry.

As of now inaction is the best action for investors with limited risk appetite.

regards

...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : ravipratap61

DEAR friend...-in these time of serious erosion in capital...our ire is directed towards experts who appear on tv channels and the fin min, rbi, sebi...certainly not not for u...sorry if it hurt u . thanks.

13 Oct 2008 19:30

Hi novice1000,
I am sure you are doing a great job in giving ideas to the gullible ones. Keep it up. God will help you in his own way too. take care
lovemeall26...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : novice1000

dear lovemeall,

Thankyou for your wishes and kind words.As you rightly said now and also in your earlier msgs, a slow and steady building of a right portfolio can fetch good money in the long term.

It is better if one can stretch the investment period little longer than 3 years before considering any shuffling.

I am basically an investor and not in to trading.And here on MMB only to give some idea about the investment strategies to the gullible ones.

regards

13 Oct 2008 19:26

Hello pradesh,
At present you can go long intra day on all of them for trading as we may see some more upside on them for a day or two more. But get out when nifty nears 3800 levels. If we cross 3800 convincingly, re-enter in them once again for another upmove. Being quick in your trading is the secret of success here at the marekts. If a day trader stops to think even for five seconds, he may miss the bus. Aban I dont think will fall further from here unless there is a market slide again. But for Long term, LT I would buy below 800, and rel petro, below 110 or 100. I have already picked up aban at 1150 for LT.
take care
lovemeall26...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pradesh

Hello Lovemeall

Would you suggest the levels at which I should buy BHEL, L&T, Aban and Rel Petro for delivery based trading?

13 Oct 2008 19:24

INDIAN rupee fast depreciating...banks not giving easy loans....
real estate in deep trouble....icici bk stopped giving easy loan....
and gold rising...not good times ahead....

In reply to:

Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!

Posted by : marketman

We have been listening indian growth stories for few years.... our financial markets too witnessed the same trend till recently.... our policy makers repeatedly assuring the investors about the strongness of indian economy.... they are saying india is immune to world financial crisis....

But indian financial markets too collapsing along with the global cues.... almost all investors and many corporates are already in deep troubles.... few are doubting at some pvt sector banks for their suspicious behaviour....

We are also part of globe,india is not from any other planet.... this common logic is ignored by our policy makers and talking nonsenses on daily basis to confuse/mislead the indian investors aswell as indian public....

Atleast the chiefs of global economy taking few steps to control the situation,we havnot seen any types of mesures or useful decisions so far in india.... already stock markets fell more than 50% from their peaks within few months.... banks are struggling for survival,many corporates facing liquidty problem,few companies at the threshold of removing employees from payrolls,experts epecting subprime type issues may occur soon in india too.... interestingly indian rupee is weaken much within short span of time....

By seeing/experiencing all these ill effects,even patriotic indians doubting about the situation of economy in the country.... few people asking questions like Is indian economy too collapsing?!

13 Oct 2008 19:17

Hello BSR,
Do you mean , you will hold unto your shorts till nifty hits 4100, thats a bad strategy to play brother. I also used to foolishly do the same thing last year, but now have learnt my lessons well. It is better to get out in small losses and turn your trade into the right flow rather than trading against the flow and waiting helplessly for things to turn and see your capital getting blown up in the air. This is just a suggestion and I am sure you must be knowing how to play your game well. take care
lovemeall26...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Thanks for the concern, lovemeall26 :)

Shorts are not MANY at the MOMENT! :) Currently, I do have that risk management in place as I do not expect Nifty to go above 4100 unless something changes drastically this week! :)

If required, will jump to minute to minute basis kind of GAME! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

13 Oct 2008 19:15

DEAR friend...-in these time of serious erosion in capital...our ire is directed towards experts who appear on tv channels and the fin min, rbi, sebi...certainly not not for u...sorry if it hurt u . thanks....

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : novice1000

dear ravipratap,

I have been telling that problem is severe. Where did i say it is a small problem. I guess you havent read my earlier msgs.

I was just telling pkjatt that even if US is not in recession, in that kind of matured economies, indicies will never move from 9000 to 21000 levels in 2 years.

Hope you got it.

The present crisis is second only to great depression in 1929 and this was known almost from the past one year.

regards

13 Oct 2008 19:12

dear lovemeall,

Quote:Reckless trading in futures with inadequate capital backup for any margin shortfalls is an extremely dangerous game. Maybe, you got it right this time, but believe me the day it goes wrong, your entire capital can get wiped out.

Unquote:Again the right msg in the right time.This is the time for traders to reduce the market exposure to bearable levels to withstand any unforeseen wild movement in either direction.

regards...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello shehnavaz,
It appears you have made a killing on messages posted by Lalit on behalf of somebody else. I also read that you have invested your entire capital in futures on maybe friday and are sitting on huge profits. Well good for you, but be careful as you are playing with fire. I mean really red hot fire. Reckless trading in futures with inadequate capital backup for any margin shortfalls is an extremely dangerous game. Maybe, you got it right this time, but believe me the day it goes wrong, your entire capital can get wiped out. Whatever you may have earned in the whole year can evaporate into this air in just one day. Yes it has happned to many people many times.
Lastly, I usually do not follow calls given by others, not even by my broker. The funny part is people from my brokerage ask me for daily levels. Lol.
take care
lovemeall26

13 Oct 2008 19:10

Again interestng data for today:

FIIs still on SELLing MODE!

FII 13-Oct-2008 2864.1 3924.7 -1060.6

DII 13-Oct-2008 1301.06 718.75 582.31

Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

:) Yep d_k, TA is just a TOY to understand MONEY Flow into markets.

Since most BIG PLAYers use similar kind of TA systems, it becomes easy for everyone to make that SELL or BUY decision in lazy manner! :)

In this age of internet and related technologies, it is pretty easy for a Smart investors or trader to see those TA themselves instead of relying on any BS experts!

Once that point 5 is clear, that TOY will again come into picture to PLOT new points! and GAME will continue like this forever! :) :) If BIG PLAYers start BUYing at that time, then we can very well expect the START of BULL RUN else we will continue to PLAY in traders zone in this GAME of REAL Money!

Just a BS point: Unlike common Retail investors, those BIG PLAYers do not use 100% Money to build those positions. Most of the time, those BIG PLAYers use Margin money. So that TA helps to understand when those PLAYers will be under HEAVY pressure to BUY or SELL due to those Margin Trigger calls! :) If you look at the market behaviour for last two days, that was more from margin calls! :) That extra liquidity is also added to support those margin calls! :) :)

Anyway, since I PLAY as per the PLAYers PLAYing the GAME, I will again check our favourite Toy TA to see what those BS Big Players are going to do ahead!!

Anyway, if we clear this point 5 and those BIG PLAYers start BUYing, then we can expect the start of BULL RUN now itself! Else Genuine LT Investors should continue to PLAY wait and watch GAME!

I hope you got some idea about TA as a Toy! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

13 Oct 2008 19:05

dear lovemeall,

Thankyou for your wishes and kind words.As you rightly said now and also in your earlier msgs, a slow and steady building of a right portfolio can fetch good money in the long term.

It is better if one can stretch the investment period little longer than 3 years before considering any shuffling.

I am basically an investor and not in to trading.And here on MMB only to give some idea about the investment strategies to the gullible ones.

regards...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello novice1000,
Many many thanks for your good wishes for my future tradings. I also wish and pray that you execute just the right trades which increases your wealth considerably. I also feel great that you appreciate the posts that I posted in the past few weeks. I am sure it must have come as a great help to those who are new here. Ofcourse the smart like you need not be guided , but for those who are not aware of future movements of markets,my homepage strives to help them out everyday.
Yes since the past one and a half year, I was a pure trader only. But now with stocks available at such mouth watering prices, its hard to resist from becoming an investor too. Hence, I have designated two of my demat accounts just for investments purposes wherein I am building up a great portfolio for my Long term holding. Half of it is already built and the other half is waiting for another big dip. Then I shall just forget about it for the next two to three years and see it build up automatically without any effort.
Anyway, thanks for your good wishes once again and all the best to you too.
lovemeall26

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