Market Analysis - Technical View

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Posted by : TrueCompanion

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TC-121008-S-01

The Last Stand !!

Posted by : goldchest

I would like to alert my friends on this Board that we are in the middle of a Meltdown.The excesses and froth of the 5 Yr Bull Run are being washed away with a vengeance.
I actually saw the Market turning in mid Jan 2008 and in a special intraday post on the Technical Board I had written in bold -- "Get out now".I must confess that we Technical Analysts learnt more lessons in the last 5 Yrs than in the preceeding quarter century.Nobody would have ever seen a Monthly Stochastic Chart the SENSEX displayed in the 6 months prior to the January bust.Two lines fused as one horizontal line at the maximum limit.
The Bull Run looked like it was over mid July 07 at a Sensex High of 15868.The support it took more than 2000 pts lower and subsequent breakout on 19 Sep 2007 was launch into EUPHORIA zone.The GAP it made that day was the problem.My experience knew that a Gap in "All Time High Zone" cannot sustain.You cannot have a fourth floor in a building without a 3rd Floor.At best the Gap gets filled in a few days or a few hundred points.Negative divergences in the Charts for all time periods told us its all over,give or take a few days.That this Gap took a load of over 5000 points over a four month period,is a miracle.I would not have given it a chance of even 1/10000.
Yes we have filled the Gap,in Jan 08 in just a few days.Lower Tops and Bottoms means excesses have not yet been washed out.The 12300/550 range of Sensex is the last support.The question for us is whether it will break?If this level breaks my RSI confirmation tells me we have a free fall,nothing will hold till we are safely in 4 digits.
Pray that we clear out 13500 because Sensex range 12500/13500 is the Precipice,only 1 day away from free fall.
Where will you place your Bets ??
Good Luck to All!

Goldchest.

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : me2_4india

Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions
Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn)
Dear Friends,
Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA.
Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more.
WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets

(I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message)

And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07
Dear friend,
It is an ageold practice.
Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON .
Oh, now this is the reason ! like that.
Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones.
I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani.
Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360
Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past !
Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there !
Their best gift to their late father.
Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS .
warm regards as always

And well on 29 DEC 08

In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010
rpl 120 223 510-558
rnrl 81 178 260-360

Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market

Dear Bearcartel,
My view at present is,
Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter.
For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE,
SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt

1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268

2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45

3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55

4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982

Dear Chartlover friends,
From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market-
MONTHLY CHART

1. January 2008 Big bull candle
Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements
2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE
Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking-
Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march .
FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls.
If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc
BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
3. March 2008 Big bull candle
making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar.

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : sp.palo

Gujju Bhai,
keep up the good work.

regards
shakti

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : ARB236

Hi, Vipulbhai,

JSK, hope you all are fine and healthy.

Love to kids...and JSK to all other members.

Today I visited MMB after much gap..so I thought let me start with VL`s Post !!

warm regards,

Ajaybhai

For Monday October 13th

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

My simple general views which may go wrong also. LOL

The NIFTY, the Sensex, the Dow are all completely bearish. The DOW however does show accumulation. The TRINS are all completely bearish and oversold at greater than 1, but the NYSE TRIN is far too bearish at 17... yes its oversold at a whopping 17 even though they recovered so much and saw so much volatility. I am not sure if the TRIN recovered though coz i dint calculate the TRIN at the height of loss for that day, but this TRIN of 17 is so so so bearish.... until now the NYSE TRIN showed a neutral value but ystday it shows a TRIN of 17. Anyone calculated TRIN for NYSE, do u confirm its 17.

I wont touch a call option with such a TRIN. May be Dow could touch 7000 on Monday.

But i have been wrong 75% of the times so please dont hold me responsible. I am just reading the technicals as is.

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

EWT Alert: Downward logical target is near

Posted by : sam_pd

61.8 % of fib label which mentioned in that last post is done. This is true if we take the bull market post 2004, if we consider the bull market post 2001, then 61.8% level has to come yet and which is just below 3000, So in worst case my levels to watch will be 2950-3000 on nifty .

Anyway my 25% protfolio buy in fire sale shopping is over last week and won`t put a single penny more unless market becomes little stable.


Vivek Patil of icicidirect been giving some theory about 8years of cycle and 55% cut from top and according to that nifty level comes at 2860. Let us see how market behaves in coming days.

Real game is shifting again to call money rate and again its zooming , on friday it touched 22% intraday. high call rates suggest that there is shortage of Rs and Rs making new low against $. what the hell is going on? sheer speculation.

Please note that this is not the first time, call money rate is zooming and has taken over maximum PLR. In last week of March 2007, call rates was zoomed to 75% on 21st march 2007, see the chart above for call money rate. On 1st June 2007, do you know how much it was , it was just 0.01%.

If we take the history of call mony rate zoom, close to every massive fall, call money rates zoom and market becomes a hyper pessimistic place. Soon

Anyway from yesterday 1.5% crr cut is effective and 60000 cr will come into the system and on saturday call rate was down to 10%. But next week will be things to watch out for call money rate. anyway i don`t think game is over in call money rate and in name of liquidity crunch, again sooner or later it will zoom to + 50% and then may be RBI will allow bank to use its repo window to borrow and use the fund for lending.

anyway i expect to hear some more bad news from media and print channel about very high call rates( they have already started this) and creating more panic in stock market and that may compel RBI to do some more and probably intrest rate cut, let us hope RBI doesn`t cut interest rate and keep using crr as tool to pump more money. first sign of liquidty ease will get reflected in call money rate,that will work towards providing stability in stock market. So watch out for this.

Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177

Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey

Dear Sriram,

I had posted my targets well in advance...

Nifty almost reached the target...........

now let us see your targets.... It may be target-2
if reached.... Else Mine would be the Bottom correctly predicted!!!!!