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Dear Tally and bull2008
I have nothing against the FII`s. They played and play their game their way and we should be doing it our way. Herd mentality is the worst virtue we have. Tally as u rightly mentioned the confidence which I spoke about in my post, Yes we need loads and loads of confidence. We lack in this aspect very badly. And another thing we tend to back off when we reach a mental road block. This is why we always never make a decision in the first instance. We always think ten times to make a decision by then its too late, the opportunity has passed over you. Except for the PM we dont have any politicians who have the guts to act on a brilliant but tough decision. This is why we always lag behind. Time is of essence always remember.
Regards
bubbu64 ...
In reply to:
Is indian economy collapsing????!!!!
Posted by :
tally
Dear bubbu, It is not difficult for us to bring back the market without the help of FIIs. Fundamentals of Indian economy are sound. Agriculture is expected to do well. Govt has given enough money in the hands of farmers. Even if 50% of this money is utilized to improve farming, the country will achieve much higher agriculture growth. Govt, PROMOTERS and investors must act to overcome void created by the exit of FIIs. Firstly, the Govt must create stock market stabilization fund with a seed money of Rs. 10000 cr. The fund may be put at disposal of UTI, SBI and other M/Fs of repute. As the fundamentals of the economy are strong, the Govt is sure to make handsome profit on this fund in coming years besides stabilizing the market. Secondly, the Indian investor should show the real grit and confidence and start investing. There are some 15 million investors in the market - direct and via MF. If each investor just makes an investment of Rs 25000/, total investment will amount to Rs 37500 cr. Total investment of some Rs 50000 cr will have profound effect on the stock market recovery. Cascading effect will bring more money from investors and may be FII outflow will stop. Govt will not only recover money, but get much higher taxes the vibrant stock market and IT. Promoters will also make hand some profits and much more money for their future plans. 
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There is a global meltdown and it’s a terribly gloomy picture all across. Asian markets slumped on Wall Street cues. Crude has fallen below USD 86 pre barrel and is now trading at USD 82.15 per barrel on demand concerns. Gold prices plunged on demand concerns....
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We have never before seen for such sustained periods of time such a sustained turn away from risk taking,” said Steven Wieting, the chief United States economist for Citigroup. “This has broken out of the boundaries we’ve seen.” Economic activity appears to have slowed sharply in September, Mr. Wieting said.
The panic last week took the biggest toll on financial companies, as well as companies that are highly leveraged. But stocks fell 10 to 30 percent even for companies typically thought to be resistant to economic downturns, like the manufacturers of consumer staples.
For example, Newell Rubbermaid fell to $12.82 on Friday from $17.34 on Oct. 1, a 26 percent decline in 10 days. Newell Rubbermaid now trades at its lowest levels since 1990, and just eight times its expected earnings for next year.
Yet Newell Rubbermaid, whose brands include Calphalon, is profitable and insulated from the credit crisis, said William G. Schmitz Jr., who follows household products companies for Deutsche Bank. “There’s really no balance sheet risk,” Mr. Schmitz said. The company also pays a 6 percent dividend.
Newell Rubbermaid said in July that it would earn $1.40 to $1.60 a share for 2008, excluding restructuring charges. For 2009, stock analysts predict it will make $1.53 a share. And while a slowing economy may mean that people will be buying fewer products from Newell Rubbermaid, the recent plunge in oil prices will reduce its costs, Mr. Schmitz said.
“The way the stock’s reacted, you’d think they were going out of business,” he said.
Martin J. Whitman, a professional investor for more than 50 years, said that as long as economies worldwide could avoid an outright depression, stocks were amazingly cheap. Mr. Whitman manages the $6 billion Third Avenue Value fund, which returned 10.2 percent annually for the 15 years that ended Sept. 30, almost two percentage points a year better than the S.& P. 500 index. The fund is down 46 percent this year.
“This is the opportunity of a lifetime,” Mr. Whitman said. “The most important securities are being given away.”
...
In reply to:
Those Knowing History May Find It’s Time to Invest
Posted by : sambala
The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.
In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.
They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.
Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.
But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.
Now some veteran investors, including G. Kenneth Heebner, a mutual fund manager who has one of the best long-term track records on Wall Street, say that the sell-off has gone much too far and stocks are poised to rally powerfully if the downturn is less severe than investors fear.
“The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there,” said Mr. Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.
He pointed to Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.
He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren E. Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
Mr. Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.
Mr. Heebner’s funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.
Mr. Heebner is not alone in his optimism.
“I think in years to come — I wouldn’t say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity,” said David P. Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. “Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart.”
Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia, Exxon Mobil and Boeing are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.
Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S.& P. traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.
Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.
“If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people’s mind,” Mr. Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.
Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.
CONT.....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.
In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.
They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.
Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.
But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.
Now some veteran investors, including G. Kenneth Heebner, a mutual fund manager who has one of the best long-term track records on Wall Street, say that the sell-off has gone much too far and stocks are poised to rally powerfully if the downturn is less severe than investors fear.
“The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there,” said Mr. Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.
He pointed to Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.
He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren E. Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
Mr. Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.
Mr. Heebner’s funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.
Mr. Heebner is not alone in his optimism.
“I think in years to come — I wouldn’t say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity,” said David P. Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. “Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart.”
Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia, Exxon Mobil and Boeing are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.
Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S.& P. traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.
Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.
“If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people’s mind,” Mr. Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.
Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.
CONT........
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The bonds for a single pool of mortgages are divided into more than a dozen “tranches,” or slices, which have different seniority, different credit ratings and different rules for being paid off. The performance of the underlying mortgages varies greatly from one pool to another, even if both pools are entirely made up of seemingly similar loans.
“I am not aware that the Treasury Department presented any evidence on auctions that have been successful when they are used for assets that are so heterogeneous,” said William Poole, who retired in August as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants, buy and sell mortgage securities every day, they could avoid the arduous process of establishing a price for the assets through auctions.
That could free up the Treasury to devote more resources to injecting government inject capital directly into the nation’s banks, something that administration officials had publicly opposed until just a few days ago. People familiar with the early planning efforts for a systemic bailout said the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, argued that it would be easier and more efficient to inject capital directly into banks. But Treasury officials initially recoiled at the idea, in part because they were ideologically opposed to direct government involvement in business.
But as the financial markets spiraled further downward during the last 10 days, a growing number of top-tier institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, became worried about their own survival.
“The crisis in confidence goes way beyond the actual losses that will be incurred from debt securities,” Mickey Levy, chief economist for Bank of America, said in an interview on Friday. “It’s truly incumbent on policy makers to address that crisis.”
Treasury officials began canvassing banks and investment firms about the possibility of having the government buy stakes in them itself. The new bailout law gave the Treasury the authority to buy up almost any kind of asset it wanted, including stock or preferred shares in banks.
Industry executives quickly told Mr. Paulson that they liked the idea, though they warned that the Treasury should not try to squeeze out existing shareholders. They also begged Mr. Paulson not to impose tough restrictions on executive pay and golden-parachute deals for executives who are fired.
Mr. Paulson heeded those pleas. In his remarks on Friday, he carefully noted that the government would only acquire “nonvoting” shares in companies. And officials said the law lets the Treasury write most of its own restrictions on executive pay, and those restrictions can be lenient if they are applied to a set of fairly healthy companies.
Mark Landler contributed reporting.
...
In reply to:
G-7: `Urgent action` needed
Posted by : sambala
Among the most closely watched gatherings was a meeting of the Group of 20 nations convened by Mr. Paulson. This group includes major emerging economies like China and Russia, which have enormous foreign reserves and are being viewed as a potential lifeline for smaller countries that run into financial trouble because of the crisis.
With European leaders planning to meet on Sunday, there are growing expectations of a joint announcement of measures to shore up European banks. Germany, which had been reluctant to inject state capital directly into banks, is now moving in that direction, officials said.
Some experts said the delay in carrying out the Bush administration’s $700 billion bailout plan has only hurt its prospects for success.
“Even if it was adequate before, it’s not adequate now,” said Frederic Mishkin, a professor of economics at Columbia University business school who stepped down as a Federal Reserve governor at the end of August. “If you delay and create uncertainty, the amount of money you have to put up goes up.”
As recently as late September, the idea of letting the government acquire part of the banking system had been unthinkable in the Bush administration. To many officials, such intervention seemed like a European-style government intrusion in the marketplace.
“Some said we should just stick capital in the banks, take preferred stock in the banks. That’s what you do when you have failure,” Mr. Paulson told the Senate Banking Committee on Sept. 23. “This is about success.”
Mr. Paulson told lawmakers it made more sense to jumpstart the frozen credit markets with “market measures,” by which he meant buying up assets rather than institutions. He staunchly resisted Democratic proposals to require that the government receive an equity stake in the companies it was helping.
But on Friday, Mr. Paulson not only confirmed his intention to buy up stakes in banks but gave the idea central billing. “We can use the taxpayer’s money more effectively and efficiently, get more for the taxpayer’s dollar, if we develop a standardized program to buy equity in financial institutions,” Mr. Paulson told reporters. Mr. Paulson refused to say whether the capital infusion program for banks would be bigger than the original concept to buy troubled assets.
Treasury officials said they hoped to make the first capital infusions within the next two weeks. That would be earlier than any government purchases of unwanted mortgage-backed securities. One reason for Mr. Paulson’s rapid reconsideration was that global financial markets have been going downhill faster than anyone had seen before.
Credit markets seized up and all but stopped functioning, making it impossible for most companies to borrow money on more than an overnight basis. Bank stocks plummeted, making it much more difficult to shore up their balance sheets by raising more capital from investors.
Investors panicked as the House initially rejected the bailout bill on Sept. 29. But they panicked even more after Congress finally passed a bill on Oct. 3 that was packed with sweeteners that added about $110 billion to the price tag.
By the closing bell last Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index had suffered its worst week since 1933. A growing number of analysts argue that Mr. Paulson’s original plan, called the Troubled Assets Relief Program, would have been unhelpful and possibly unworkable. Some noted that Mr. Paulson presented Congress a legislative proposal that was only three pages long and that Treasury officials have yet to provide details how the auctions will work.
Though auctions are common for all sorts of products, including electricity that utilities sell one another, experts said that mortgage-backed securities would pose difficult headaches for an auctions system. The securities are extraordinarily complex, and they come in an almost limitless variety.
CONT...
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Among the most closely watched gatherings was a meeting of the Group of 20 nations convened by Mr. Paulson. This group includes major emerging economies like China and Russia, which have enormous foreign reserves and are being viewed as a potential lifeline for smaller countries that run into financial trouble because of the crisis.
With European leaders planning to meet on Sunday, there are growing expectations of a joint announcement of measures to shore up European banks. Germany, which had been reluctant to inject state capital directly into banks, is now moving in that direction, officials said.
Some experts said the delay in carrying out the Bush administration’s $700 billion bailout plan has only hurt its prospects for success.
“Even if it was adequate before, it’s not adequate now,” said Frederic Mishkin, a professor of economics at Columbia University business school who stepped down as a Federal Reserve governor at the end of August. “If you delay and create uncertainty, the amount of money you have to put up goes up.”
As recently as late September, the idea of letting the government acquire part of the banking system had been unthinkable in the Bush administration. To many officials, such intervention seemed like a European-style government intrusion in the marketplace.
“Some said we should just stick capital in the banks, take preferred stock in the banks. That’s what you do when you have failure,” Mr. Paulson told the Senate Banking Committee on Sept. 23. “This is about success.”
Mr. Paulson told lawmakers it made more sense to jumpstart the frozen credit markets with “market measures,” by which he meant buying up assets rather than institutions. He staunchly resisted Democratic proposals to require that the government receive an equity stake in the companies it was helping.
But on Friday, Mr. Paulson not only confirmed his intention to buy up stakes in banks but gave the idea central billing. “We can use the taxpayer’s money more effectively and efficiently, get more for the taxpayer’s dollar, if we develop a standardized program to buy equity in financial institutions,” Mr. Paulson told reporters. Mr. Paulson refused to say whether the capital infusion program for banks would be bigger than the original concept to buy troubled assets.
Treasury officials said they hoped to make the first capital infusions within the next two weeks. That would be earlier than any government purchases of unwanted mortgage-backed securities. One reason for Mr. Paulson’s rapid reconsideration was that global financial markets have been going downhill faster than anyone had seen before.
Credit markets seized up and all but stopped functioning, making it impossible for most companies to borrow money on more than an overnight basis. Bank stocks plummeted, making it much more difficult to shore up their balance sheets by raising more capital from investors.
Investors panicked as the House initially rejected the bailout bill on Sept. 29. But they panicked even more after Congress finally passed a bill on Oct. 3 that was packed with sweeteners that added about $110 billion to the price tag.
By the closing bell last Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index had suffered its worst week since 1933. A growing number of analysts argue that Mr. Paulson’s original plan, called the Troubled Assets Relief Program, would have been unhelpful and possibly unworkable. Some noted that Mr. Paulson presented Congress a legislative proposal that was only three pages long and that Treasury officials have yet to provide details how the auctions will work.
Though auctions are common for all sorts of products, including electricity that utilities sell one another, experts said that mortgage-backed securities would pose difficult headaches for an auctions system. The securities are extraordinarily complex, and they come in an almost limitless variety.
CONT......
In reply to:
G-7: `Urgent action` needed
Posted by : sambala
White House Overhauling Rescue Plan
WASHINGTON — As international leaders gathered here on Saturday to grapple with the global financial crisis, the Bush administration embarked on an overhaul of its own strategy for rescuing the foundering financial system.
Two weeks after persuading Congress to let it spend $700 billion to buy distressed mortgage-backed securities, the Bush administration has put that idea on the back burner in favor of a new approach, which would have the government inject capital directly into the nation’s banks — in effect, partially nationalizing the industry.
While the Treasury department says it still plans to buy up distressed assets, the scope of that plan is unclear. And the federal government meanwhile has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled mortgage giants, to ramp up their purchases of troubled mortgage bonds, in what could be a speedier and less formal process than the reverse auctions proposed by the Treasury.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which last month seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and placed them into a conservatorship, has ordered the companies to buy substantially larger amounts of mortgage securities — mostly subprime or other classes of mortgages in default.
The new plan to buy stock in banks, which has become the administration’s primary focus, comes closer to a partial nationalization of the banking system than at any time since the Depression. In exchange for providing capital, the government would demand some kind of nonvoting minority stake.
The surprising turnaround by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., announced Friday as part of a coordinated plan to rescue the financial industry, has raised questions about whether he squandered valuable time by trying to sell Congress a plan that he and other administration officials had failed to think through in advance.
It also raises questions about whether the administration’s deep philosophical hostility to government ownership in private companies aggravated the financial crisis by delaying rescue action.
Some experts now say they believe that the Treasury Department’s decision last month not to rescue Lehman Brothers with taxpayer money exacerbated the panic that quickly metastasized into an international crisis.
Underscoring the gravity of the situation, President Bush convened an early morning meeting at the White House on Saturday with finance ministers from the Group of 7 industrialized countries.
“All of us recognize that this is a serious global crisis, and therefore requires a serious global response, for the good of our people,” Mr. Bush said afterward in the Rose Garden, flanked by the ministers, who are in Washington for their annual meeting.
Mr. Bush said the countries had agreed to general principles in responding to the crisis, including working to prevent the collapse of important financial institutions and protecting the deposits of savers. But he offered no details on other measures, suggesting that there were still differences among countries about which steps to take to shore up their respective financial systems.
Like the United States, Britain plans to inject capital directly into banks. But the United States and other countries have not adopted Britain’s proposal to guarantee lending between banks as a way to unlock the credit market. Germany has been reluctant to put state capital directly into banks, though officials said there were signs of movement in the German position on Saturday.
Mr. Bush’s remarks came at the beginning of a day packed with meetings with finance ministers and other officials, as motorcades and limousines with tinted windows clogged downtown Washington.
CONT.....
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White House Overhauling Rescue Plan
WASHINGTON — As international leaders gathered here on Saturday to grapple with the global financial crisis, the Bush administration embarked on an overhaul of its own strategy for rescuing the foundering financial system.
Two weeks after persuading Congress to let it spend $700 billion to buy distressed mortgage-backed securities, the Bush administration has put that idea on the back burner in favor of a new approach, which would have the government inject capital directly into the nation’s banks — in effect, partially nationalizing the industry.
While the Treasury department says it still plans to buy up distressed assets, the scope of that plan is unclear. And the federal government meanwhile has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled mortgage giants, to ramp up their purchases of troubled mortgage bonds, in what could be a speedier and less formal process than the reverse auctions proposed by the Treasury.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which last month seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and placed them into a conservatorship, has ordered the companies to buy substantially larger amounts of mortgage securities — mostly subprime or other classes of mortgages in default.
The new plan to buy stock in banks, which has become the administration’s primary focus, comes closer to a partial nationalization of the banking system than at any time since the Depression. In exchange for providing capital, the government would demand some kind of nonvoting minority stake.
The surprising turnaround by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., announced Friday as part of a coordinated plan to rescue the financial industry, has raised questions about whether he squandered valuable time by trying to sell Congress a plan that he and other administration officials had failed to think through in advance.
It also raises questions about whether the administration’s deep philosophical hostility to government ownership in private companies aggravated the financial crisis by delaying rescue action.
Some experts now say they believe that the Treasury Department’s decision last month not to rescue Lehman Brothers with taxpayer money exacerbated the panic that quickly metastasized into an international crisis.
Underscoring the gravity of the situation, President Bush convened an early morning meeting at the White House on Saturday with finance ministers from the Group of 7 industrialized countries.
“All of us recognize that this is a serious global crisis, and therefore requires a serious global response, for the good of our people,” Mr. Bush said afterward in the Rose Garden, flanked by the ministers, who are in Washington for their annual meeting.
Mr. Bush said the countries had agreed to general principles in responding to the crisis, including working to prevent the collapse of important financial institutions and protecting the deposits of savers. But he offered no details on other measures, suggesting that there were still differences among countries about which steps to take to shore up their respective financial systems.
Like the United States, Britain plans to inject capital directly into banks. But the United States and other countries have not adopted Britain’s proposal to guarantee lending between banks as a way to unlock the credit market. Germany has been reluctant to put state capital directly into banks, though officials said there were signs of movement in the German position on Saturday.
Mr. Bush’s remarks came at the beginning of a day packed with meetings with finance ministers and other officials, as motorcades and limousines with tinted windows clogged downtown Washington.
CONT........
In reply to:
G-7: `Urgent action` needed
Posted by : sambala
Also on the G7 to-do list were unfreezing credit and money markets, ensuring banks can raise capital from the private sector, ensuring that deposit insurance regimes were robust, and repairing secondary mortgage markets where appropriate
The actions should be taken in ways that would protect taxpayers and avoid damaging other countries.
Interest rate cuts should be used "as necessary and appropriate," the G7 plan said.
It is unclear whether the plan will go far enough to satisfy financial markets, which are suffering from a profound loss of confidence.
At first blush, some analysts were not too impressed.
Vincent Reinhart, a former top staffer at the Federal Reserve Board, said markets had no interest in pledges but wanted to know exactly what the G7 would do before trading resumes Monday.
"I think the finance ministers just failed a test, or at best got a C minus," wrote Paul Krugman, a Princeton University economics professor and New York Times columnist.
But Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said she thought the principles expressed by the G7 would reassure markets.
Ahead of the meeting, Ken Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and former chief economist at the IMF, said there needed to be an "overwhelming" G7 statement.
"I think the worst thing to do would be to come out with a very tepid response," he said. "It would be the end of the G7."
"This is really the mother of all financial crises since World War II, and if the G7 leaders can`t ... get it together and come out with a very effective statement, it is going to be a sad day indeed," Rogoff said.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear vam_ru,
Downside is limited to 3050 in current situation. however, Upside is capped at 3700 /4100
Technically, both DOW and Nifty deserves some upward RALLY, however, I expect Nifty to go below 3000 level over a longer time frame if those BS FIIs continue with that MAD SELLing.
So, PLAN your GAME accordingly.
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear BSR,
Welcome back, i too expect the markets to stable around 2900 to 3000 levels , If there is any slight rallies in the coming week will be unfortunately will be sold off...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear BSR,
Welcome back, i too expect the markets to stable around 2900 to 3000 levels , If there is any slight rallies in the coming week will be unfortunately will be sold off...
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
In my BS opinion, You have explained different situations correctly.
Just for info: I am SHORT on Nifty! :)
Over a longer time frame, I expect Nifty continue to come down and stablise under 3000 level unless DOW make some kind of immediate UPTREND above 10000 level.
You may find a bit SCARY to know what kind of level I am looking for building those LT investment portfolio. :) Just to give an idea: IFCI about 12-15 level, Nagarjuna around 12-14 level, Renuka around 18-22 level.
If I do not see those counters coming to my price level target, then I will PLAY as per PLAYers PLAYing the GAME!
This is like I will invest in a new home in real estate only when a flat of 1 crore CRASH to a price of 20 lakhs first and then will see the new developments / situtations! :)
I hope that clears some BS points as far as building those LT investments are concerned!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
httX://3.bp.blogspot.coX/_iAG8XurigTA/SPDgJNeYNvI/AAAAAAAAAI4/B-_NIHqoIz8/s1600-h/Nifty+13-17+Oct.bmp
replace httx with http and cox with com charts shows weekly support which comes at 3200
now we shuld start recovery from Monday...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
:)
Your msg got truncated!
I was more interested to know this significance of \\`Matured\\`.. so far, ppl used to say bear and bull market... now come the interesting term matured!
just see dow now... is that a sign of matured bear market? :) :) Dow may surprise common ppl in October... just like those BS experts will say surprise results or better than expected results! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Just for info:
in US market, Much of the selling now is forced: Hedge fund managers may not want to let stocks go at these prices, but their clients want their money back. Ditto for mutual fund managers, who are facing a surge in redemptions. Selling begets more selling.
This implies that common investors will SELL their stocks and BIG PLAYers will start BUYing based on the assumption that DOW will survive over a longer time frame!
So prepare for that Big Discount Sale SHOPPING! :)
Gud luk & happy investing!...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear pkjattking,
For DOW, 7400 is the LONG TERM Support. So effectively, Dow in this range of 7400-8400 should result in DIRT Cheap prices for many stocks unless DOW would like to go for a TOSS! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 1 Boarder
Yes..very true..Bull and Bear both parts of trading game...am taking as an opppurtunity for investing ...wht`s abt you?...
In reply to:
Has your confidence in equities been shattered?
Posted by :
iktikn
My portfolio is down 45%. Have I lost confidence in equities? No. The reason is simple. Equities provide the best returns if invested wisely. Panic selling is a result of fear as a result of which, the fear is turned into reality. But, this a good buying opportunity. The markets won`t be closed and the world will not come to an end. This means for the industry to function and for the economy to grow, equity markets are critical. So, the crisis has to be and will be resolved. If and when that happens, the markets will bounce back. But, we have to be intelligent enough to take advantage of this crisis to make profits. We obviously have to start buying and stagger our investments. In conclusion, equity markets will exist as long as the human race exists. If it ends, then we need not worry about the markets anymore. If it doesn`t, then we have nothing to worry. Either way we are at an advantage. :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear pkjattking,
For DOW, 7400 is the LONG TERM Support. So effectively, Dow in this range of 7400-8400 should result in DIRT Cheap prices for many stocks unless DOW would like to go for a TOSS! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
By looking at the history of Dow for lasts 40 years ...its the months Sept and October where the tide turns.... 8000 for Dow has been a support for 40 years.....if we go below and sustain tha level.....only god knows where it will stop.....
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear novice1000,
Thank you again for taking time out and providing those valuable inputs. :)
Let us see how GAME pan out going ahead!
Just for info: If Sensex goes below 8800 or Nifty goes below 2600, then ppl should forget about any recovery in Indian STOCK market for a few months until those BS Big PLAYers are over with their BUYing or over with their BS stories! :)
For DOW, 7400 is the equivalent long term support!
If we look at all those 3 indexes, then we are close to LONG Term support for them all.
That is why, I believe that within 3 months, many stocks should be available at very DIRT Cheap prices. Ppl should do their HOMEWORK before putting any FRESH investments into the market!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear BSR,
Quote: Will those macro fundamentals stories look fine after a year as base effect will be less?
Unquote: I dont know about the stories.. i know only about my calculated analyses.
I have a very clear picture in mind how the macros affect the growth and how the impacted growth will affect the movement of indicies.
And during this kind of bearish phase,first the economy should stabilize( read as growth).During that phase, the bad sentiments and the liquidity crunch will make indicies move slower than the actual ecomomic growth before forming a base for next bull run.
Quote:However, this itself show how easily various GAME is PLAYed in different markets when every BS experts start claiming Oil going towards 200 USD!
Unquote:The projected target price of 200 USD per barrel was a speculated one(Not a fundamental one as the excessive demand than supply).
Whether such speculated targets will ever be met or not depends on
1) The ability of the speculators to take it there.
2) And the real intensions of speculators whether they really want to take it to that level or not.
Now the real question is not about crude price reaching that level. Instead how long the crude price was maintained at a level which is beyond the bearable level for our country. In fact for almost 6 months it was at higher levels which made all the fiscal plans awry.
Quote:Let us see if market moves up in hurry as no one knows and market is not in control of one group!! Once those BS FIIs start BUYing, everything will look better!
Unquote:At present markets are at fair levels.There is only one group that creates excesses in the markets...US based investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors.But they are handicapped right now.
DIIs, sovereign funds, Indian retail investors never create excesses in the over all markets( except stray incidents like some promoter groups and few HNIs playing with some small caps).If at all DIIS and sovereign funds create excesses, they bankrupt like their western counterparts.
Quote:As I told you before depending on the movement of Nifty, all kind of BS reasons can be given!
Unquote:I dont know about BS reasons, but i have been telling this since July 2008 when i was convinced about the disturbed macro fundamentals.
From purely fundamental perspective, i said( in July 2008) 15600-15800 will act as cap for the month of August 2008.
For me, the next cap for the month of Nov 2008 was 16100 which i had in mind before the Lehman`s filing for bankruptcy.So i was forced to relook at the upside cap after the Lehman`s incident.I was expecting those bankruptcy incidents to take place after Nov 2008.
And pls dont confused that the projected upside cap as the projected target.
regards
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
The markets resistance level is now become 3800 for NIFTY, I feel 3800 can not be breached in the near term......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sanjay38000
i think market to rally at least 2000 points from monday and i hope the sensex to run upto nearly at 12600 ( high made in may 2006). than again it will slide
