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Market Analysis - Technical View
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BSE Capital Goods index declined 4%; market breadth was bearish - out of over 2,680 scrips traded, over 1,815 declined
...
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So the commercial paper funding news was leaked... else the NYSE TRIN couldnt have been so overbought on Friday and monday at 0.1 and 0.5 respectively even when they fell hard....
In reply to:
Tuesday 7th September
Posted by :
radhika_nandlal
The dow and nifty both show accumulation. Dow shows accumulation for two days in a row. I FEEL today they close with robust gains.
The NYSE TRIN is once again overbought at 0.5 inspite of the fall.
Our own TRIN at 3 is grossly grossly oversold perhaps reflecting a fair bit of shorts which should get covered causing a rally. But otherwise all indices only indicate bearishness. 
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You described it correctly. But we are yet to see capitualtion of index heavy weights. Midcaps & small caps have been cut to size, so downside is not so great as compared to hwat heavy weights have in store. Nifty has to touch 3000. This will be gradual process, like slowly killing medicine. The survivors will see the light at the end of tunnel....
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : chief_kamani
As a bear market really gets rolling, fear turns to desperation, desperation turns to panic, panic turns to capitulation, and capitulation turns to despondency.Finally, despondency morphs into depression, just as the market begins to turn higher. We think it is clear that we have seen panic and capitulation over the last couple of weeks.So in last few weeks,there was a look of despondency and depression on the faces of Equity Investors!!So now we are likely to get into a very interesting phase,in which no one can predict which ways the Markets are headed to!!India still has internal consumption and growth story!!But the constant FII Selling,rising dollar,low liquidity,high interest rates,inflation & loss of investor confidence are playing
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As a bear market really gets rolling, fear turns to desperation, desperation turns to panic, panic turns to capitulation, and capitulation turns to despondency.Finally, despondency morphs into depression, just as the market begins to turn higher. We think it is clear that we have seen panic and capitulation over the last couple of weeks.So in last few weeks,there was a look of despondency and depression on the faces of Equity Investors!!So now we are likely to get into a very interesting phase,in which no one can predict which ways the Markets are headed to!!India still has internal consumption and growth story!!But the constant FII Selling,rising dollar,low liquidity,high interest rates,inflation & loss of investor confidence are playing...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by :
udydudy
In the last 4-5 years I do not think the markets have given such a buying oppourtunity. If there is a capitulation ahead today, Buy all fundamentally strong stocks without hesitation.
Markets will recover...Do not listen to scaremongerers, Do you think India is winding up??? yes there is doom and gloom ahead but the markets will recover. Invest what you can hold for a year or so and you will see double to triple digit gains over a 2 year period.
Buffet also made a paper loss on his first investment but finally made money when he sold which went on to give 4 times more returns had he held on..which is when he learnt to hold for the long term...
Look at the past the US came out of the great depression as well. The markets recovered long before the economy did.
Is reliance closing down?? then why the closing down sale on its stock price?? The reason is that sensex/index based scrips have FII holding who may be selling for cash flow reasons, as well as hedge funds selling to take advantage of the fera in the market.
I believe in a simple theory When the panwalla(no offence he may e richer and cleverer than you and me) asks you "saab kya share leneka?" is the time to sell and when everybody says sell the world is coming to an end is the right time to BUY!!
In the short term you may lose money on paper but when it recovers your paper loses disappear soonner than you can blink your eye!!!
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NEW YORK: Oil dropped more than 6% to below $88 a barrel on Monday as a global market rout churned concerns that faltering fuel demand could slow further.
US stocks tumbled 6% to the lowest level in nearly five years as part of an international sell-off on fears the global economy was heading into recession.
US crude settled down $6.07 at $87.81 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low of $87.56. London Brent crude fell $6.57 to settle at $83.68 a barrel.
Crude prices have plummeted from a peak over $147 a barrel set on July 11 as high fuel prices and the growing financial crisis slow oil demand in top consumer the United States and other industrialized nations.
"The prevailing macro sentiment is now crystallizing around the notion that we are heading into a synchronized global slowdown, a mirror image of the across-the-board expansion we saw from 2004 to early 2007," said Edward Meir of broker MF Global.
Analysts are watching oil demand from China -- which helped fuel a 6-year rally in commodities -- for signs the crisis is hitting consumption.
The world`s No. 2 consumer will not import gasoline for the second straight month and instead export the fuel due to heavy domestic stockpiles and a dip in demand.
"I think the market`s starting to build this into prices," said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ. "You would expect the market is now joining the dots and thinking ... this will probably flow through to China."
The US and European governments are trying to underpin the financial sector but so far this has failed to reassure investors.
European shares suffered their worst one-day%age fall on record, sinking to four-year closing lows while trading in Brazil halted after a 15% drop in its benchmark index.
The drop in prices has caused some concern among OPEC members, while analysts are revising down demand outlook projections.
"Definitely there is worry. When the prices are so volatile, like rising to $140 and then dropping to below $90, it worries everybody," said Iraq`s Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani.
Ecuadorean Oil Minister Galo Chiriboga said OPEC will analyze the impact of the global financial crisis on oil demand and set production levels in accordance.
Iran said $100 a barrel was too low and urged members to respect their output targets to prevent oversupply from worsening.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil said OPEC would seek to balance the market when it meets in December.
...
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Whatyou are speaking dear.Silverline,Arvindmils,tatasteel all were the stocks you gave a call to buy and see today all these stocks are 50-70percent down from your level.Only Shankarsharma,Ramesh damani practised aid what they said publically.Do any retail investors have any money to buy now?Any one can give cal like you without any accountability factor.Operators are short and not long .Elections does not always leads to Teji.HAve guts to say ,I gave wrong call and sorry to all the investors who are suffering because of me....
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear shareviews,
My kind of calculations have worked for me in INDIA till now.
Do you think INVESTORS were responsible for worldmarket fluctuations of 2007 to 2008 period in Metals, USD , stocks , commodities etc !
In ANY market , SPECULATORS and OPERATORS are ALWAYS there.
They make you think what they want to and they trade just in opposite direction.
My view is, Operators are in BUY MODE at present .
Rest is all crap.
They were the ones who had initiated shorts since Oct2007 , they are wise and deserve standing ovation. Now as per my view they have ALREADY covered their shorts, have INCREASED their longs or holdings in the companies they are interested in .
By August 2009 to March 2010 we will have DOUBLE TOP in bse30 index and nifty50 index is VERY PROBABLE POSSIBILITY as per my own personal view based on my limited knowledge on charts.
We may even cross previous tops if enough shorts are created at lower levels by fools.
2 weeks to go now for end of bearish sentiments.
For level crazy readers- 12050, 11600, 11200 for bse 30 index level.
Usually when stocks are available cheap and at attractive rates , and even when there is enough cash available , most investors do not buy anything at all as they are scared.
They buy near tops and then feel sorry.
3 day simple moving average will be good friend who will let you know when you may buy. Any close above 3 day simple moving average now onwards will signal new fresh upmove for the market.
For smart ones - hint- USA and INDIA elections
worst quarterly result announcements will play pivotal and important role.
Thank you all responsible for boarder of the day
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
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You cant wait for nifty to below 3200, even if it come to the level I think 2008 will not saw the day. I think before that we will again see 4200 or higher by the end of Nov`08...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by :
Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT.
Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Good to know aout your analsis....Do u have any blogs ?
It will be good to know if you any blog...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : rudra_sinha
Mohanji,
I am travelling this whole week and on board a train right now. Just logged in to say, if anybody has 3900 straddle, book profit in the PUT and keep the CALL. I am bullish in market now.
Thanks,
Rudra
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As always, Good advice. I have been increasing my INVESTMENT with every drop in the Indices. And am now starting to make long positions in the Index via spread betting.
All are like I said Investments and to emphasize long term. One will only make money if you buy when everybody runs for the door.!!#
A Happy Diwali to you and all with a PROSPEROUS YEAR AHEAD!!!....
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear shareviews,
My kind of calculations have worked for me in INDIA till now.
Do you think INVESTORS were responsible for worldmarket fluctuations of 2007 to 2008 period in Metals, USD , stocks , commodities etc !
In ANY market , SPECULATORS and OPERATORS are ALWAYS there.
They make you think what they want to and they trade just in opposite direction.
My view is, Operators are in BUY MODE at present .
Rest is all crap.
They were the ones who had initiated shorts since Oct2007 , they are wise and deserve standing ovation. Now as per my view they have ALREADY covered their shorts, have INCREASED their longs or holdings in the companies they are interested in .
By August 2009 to March 2010 we will have DOUBLE TOP in bse30 index and nifty50 index is VERY PROBABLE POSSIBILITY as per my own personal view based on my limited knowledge on charts.
We may even cross previous tops if enough shorts are created at lower levels by fools.
2 weeks to go now for end of bearish sentiments.
For level crazy readers- 12050, 11600, 11200 for bse 30 index level.
Usually when stocks are available cheap and at attractive rates , and even when there is enough cash available , most investors do not buy anything at all as they are scared.
They buy near tops and then feel sorry.
3 day simple moving average will be good friend who will let you know when you may buy. Any close above 3 day simple moving average now onwards will signal new fresh upmove for the market.
For smart ones - hint- USA and INDIA elections
worst quarterly result announcements will play pivotal and important role.
Thank you all responsible for boarder of the day
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear TC,
It is your interpretation that i have gone over the top :-) I have always maintained the same view about the MMB polls - they are designed to harm the "majority" of the boarders..
Regards...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Dear RT
I cant believe, is that RT Sir ? Going over the top !
I am in a fix, yet very much composed.
Thanks & regards.
TC
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Dear RT
I cant believe, is that RT Sir ? Going over the top !
I am in a fix, yet very much composed.
Thanks & regards.
TC
...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : raj_tibs
Dear TC,
I think the Indian market is likely to be the top performing market in the next 3 years, IF commodity prices stay down. US market may be a very close second! SO yes, this is the time to buy those 2 ACC shares daily :-)
Regards
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The dow and nifty both show accumulation. Dow shows accumulation for two days in a row. I FEEL today they close with robust gains.
The NYSE TRIN is once again overbought at 0.5 inspite of the fall.
Our own TRIN at 3 is grossly grossly oversold perhaps reflecting a fair bit of shorts which should get covered causing a rally. But otherwise all indices only indicate bearishness....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Market to open in Green
Stocks to recover despite USA and Asian market low profile.
Indian market will see a surge in its level. There is going to a big volume trading as well as number of stocks on trading list.
Day is good for profiters....
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U r right dear Bul2008. The next bull run will be very fantastic whenever it happen and of course India growth story is still intact, no doubt about that. Slowly and gradually one can enter in the market now and invest in frontline largecap stocks for long time....
In reply to:
Bull & Bear phase of the market
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear ank1977
The markets are in normal course of correction after a consistent bull run from May 2003 when the nifty was at 1000 and it peaked out at 6300 in jan 2008 a five year bull run which has just snapped due to fundamental reasons of sub prime and execessive speculation in crude, metal markets. This may take some more time to settle as the pain is severe in US markets. But this not the end of all bull runs.
The bull and bear phases are just cycles of markets and end of this bear phase will bring bigger and stronger bull run specially in India due change and postioning of India in world trade. India will definately gain out these pains and emerge as a winner in long run.
Buy when the world is out to sell if you believe in India`s growth story.
Cheers
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In the last 4-5 years I do not think the markets have given such a buying oppourtunity. If there is a capitulation ahead today, Buy all fundamentally strong stocks without hesitation.
Markets will recover...Do not listen to scaremongerers, Do you think India is winding up??? yes there is doom and gloom ahead but the markets will recover. Invest what you can hold for a year or so and you will see double to triple digit gains over a 2 year period.
Buffet also made a paper loss on his first investment but finally made money when he sold which went on to give 4 times more returns had he held on..which is when he learnt to hold for the long term...
Look at the past the US came out of the great depression as well. The markets recovered long before the economy did.
Is reliance closing down?? then why the closing down sale on its stock price?? The reason is that sensex/index based scrips have FII holding who may be selling for cash flow reasons, as well as hedge funds selling to take advantage of the fera in the market.
I believe in a simple theory When the panwalla(no offence he may e richer and cleverer than you and me) asks you "saab kya share leneka?" is the time to sell and when everybody says sell the world is coming to an end is the right time to BUY!!
In the short term you may lose money on paper but when it recovers your paper loses disappear soonner than you can blink your eye!!!...
Poll
Udayan's Market Outlook
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Investors should stay in cash, not sell in panic | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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Popular Boarders 7days| 285 | |
| 184 | |
| 141 | |
| 126 | |
| 113 | |
Top Tracked 7days| 706 | |
| 695 | |
| 571 | |
| 464 | |
| 437 | |