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Market Analysis - Technical View
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We have seen enough bearish grip and should get ready for a bull run here after. Normally after every crash market will rebound with vigor. Now we must be ready to earn money by taking short term call. Normally the most hammered counter has a very bright chance. Metals are the most hammered counter. But I see there is no chance for this counter to rally. It looks weak even after the crash. Power sector are the ones which are trading range bound. There may not be any hope for immense gain in ST. Banking counters are looking solid and I do not know why. May be it is a good call for decent gain ST. PNB, UCO. SBI are looking strong and one can take position for decent gain. Oil marketing and refinery sectors are the other sector which may prove multi bagger under crude oil bearishness. I consider Gail, Petronet LNG, MRPL. Chennai Perto, and Bongaigon excellent picks. Apart from that there may be some stock specific rally like Bajaj holding, Bombay Deying, Mahendra Gesco and some telecom stocks like MTNL and TATATELE Services.
Dear boarders please include your picks for short time gain in this thread. Please only long no shorts.
With regards
aahoo
...
Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Dear Raj,
I find in NSE Site many contracts of 2011 being traded.Are these considered good enough for liqidity point of veiw? secondly why 2011 and not 2010 or 2012?Regards...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by :
raj_tibs
Mohan,
Another excellent trade in my opinion would be - sell a Jun2011 5700 CE at 500, and buy a Dec 2008 Nifty future with the intention of rolling it over till Jun 2011.
Margin requirement - 65000-70000
Less (premium received for 5700 call) - 25000
Reserve (assuming a Nifty low of 2800) - 60000
------------------------------------------------
Net requirement ------------ 100000
Maximum profit -------------- 170 * 50 = 85000.
Note that the reserve needs to be an FD and can earn interest... So effectivly you may end up doubling your money in 2 years by executing this trade once, and then forgetting abou it -- except rolling the future over every one quarter.
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Dear Raj,
Q
CE is a european call option - it can be exercised only after the trading session closes on the DAY THE CONTRACT EXPIRES. All index options are european options.
CA is an american call option - it can be exercised on close of trading on ANY DAY Till the day of expiry... All options for individual stocks are American options.
IT IS VERY RISKY TO WRITE american options.
IT IS QUITE SAFE TO WRITE european options.
UQ
Any logical reasons for choosing european for index and American for Stocks?Regards...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : raj_tibs
CE is a european call option - it can be exercised only after the trading session closes on the DAY THE CONTRACT EXPIRES. All index options are european options.
CA is an american call option - it can be exercised on close of trading on ANY DAY Till the day of expiry... All options for individual stocks are American options.
IT IS VERY RISKY TO WRITE american options.
IT IS QUITE SAFE TO WRITE european options.
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Supply Chain Management :
Within the Business Consulting capability group, the Supply Chain Management develops and implements new operating models across the supply chain to improve clients’ cost position, customer service performance, asset productivity and competitive advantage.
TC-041008-S-01...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Vertical Integration :
The potential within an enterprise to incorporate all aspects of management, production, sales and distribution into their business operations. In theory, the greater the vertical integration, the less vulnerable an enterprise is to outside forces.
TC-021008-S-01
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Dear Vipul, First of all thank you for taking my views in the right spirit. We all wish the market to recover and to be back on track and let it happen at the earliest as you predict. Have a nice day. ...
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear shareviews,
My kind of calculations have worked for me in INDIA till now.
Do you think INVESTORS were responsible for worldmarket fluctuations of 2007 to 2008 period in Metals, USD , stocks , commodities etc !
In ANY market , SPECULATORS and OPERATORS are ALWAYS there.
They make you think what they want to and they trade just in opposite direction.
My view is, Operators are in BUY MODE at present .
Rest is all crap.
They were the ones who had initiated shorts since Oct2007 , they are wise and deserve standing ovation. Now as per my view they have ALREADY covered their shorts, have INCREASED their longs or holdings in the companies they are interested in .
By August 2009 to March 2010 we will have DOUBLE TOP in bse30 index and nifty50 index is VERY PROBABLE POSSIBILITY as per my own personal view based on my limited knowledge on charts.
We may even cross previous tops if enough shorts are created at lower levels by fools.
2 weeks to go now for end of bearish sentiments.
For level crazy readers- 12050, 11600, 11200 for bse 30 index level.
Usually when stocks are available cheap and at attractive rates , and even when there is enough cash available , most investors do not buy anything at all as they are scared.
They buy near tops and then feel sorry.
3 day simple moving average will be good friend who will let you know when you may buy. Any close above 3 day simple moving average now onwards will signal new fresh upmove for the market.
For smart ones - hint- USA and INDIA elections
worst quarterly result announcements will play pivotal and important role.
Thank you all responsible for boarder of the day
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Winwath,
From 2006 to 2008 you have tripled ur money trading Indian markets. Kudos.. this apart from a regular job i presume? If u r trading for a tripling of money in market with such risks its not worth it if one has to give up on as job... so i presume u have used stockmarkets to add to ur networth, ur main income being ur job? How old are u by the way.. if u started in 1996 assuming u were 16 you should be 27 now?
Most men on MMB have begun stockmarkets at the age of 16... thats why the presumption....
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by :
winwath
I think that is too personal a question ;) But I dont mind.
1996 - Started with Goldman Sachs - $4000.00 starting capital.
Used to purchase IPO shares of a company called XYLAN. Was alloted 100 shares at $26.00 = 2600.00 Flipped it on the market open on the 2nd day for $55.00. My very first trade.
By the end of 1998 - my portfolio was worth about $12k after paying $3k in taxes for short term trading.
1998 - 1999 - made a bunch on several IPOS - I open new account with a new broker and flip the shares on the first or 2nd day for massive gains
Couple of examples:
Inktomi - zoomed to over $150.00 during the 1st week. Flipped it for close to $200
By end of 1999 - was sitting on a pile of cash - even now my IRA with ameritrade is $124K - I was contribution $2k per year since 1996 - so in 12 years 24k is now 124k - which is right now 80k in cash and 14k in stocks.
Relocated to India in 2006 - spend 18 months studing the market. My very first trade here was a short sale.
Since March 4, 2008 have done 44 trades - I lost 29 of them - but my losses are limited to 5% of my capital invested.
I made money in only 15 trades.
The 15 trades made me an avg of 110% of capital deployed. I only trade options - NIFTY and couple heavy weights like Reliance, Infosys & ICICI
I look for liquid options - dont want to trade in options where less than 10000 contracts are trades on a daily basis
In India - started with 75K and now am at 210K - I will end up paying close to 20K in taxes.
I may avoid that as I will write it off against losses in my MF`s
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BULLET narendranainani.blogspot.co
MARKETS DEPENDING ON AMERICAN MARKET MOVEMENT
BSE Sensex(12526.30) and Nifty(3818.30) closed 4.4% and 4.2% down last week.Inflation was at 11.99 v/s 12.14 last week.Crude oil was at 93$.Mareket had fallen sharply during the week on Lehman Brothers,Merrill lynch and AIG insurance’s crisis but failed to recover in spite of steps taken by U.S. government by banning short selling and giving a bail out package..Support for sensex is 12000 and for Nifty 3680.Resistance for Sensex is 13100 and Nifty is at 3980.Local fund buying was visible against selling of FII.Nifty put-call ratio was 0.67.Nifty 3800 put option added open interest.Hindustan Lever and Ranbaxy added open interest.
Strategy for Future Option players.
1)SBI(1483.65) Lot Size-132 Shares.
Buy one call option of October month strike price 1470@86.75 Rs.
Sell one call option of October month strike price 1560@50.00 Rs.
Premium Paid=86.75*132=11451.00 Rs.
Premium Received=50*132=6600.00 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=11451-6600=4851 Rs.
Maximum Profit=1560-1470=90*132=11880-4851=7029.00 Rs.
Maximum Loss=4851.00 Rs.
Break-even=1506.75 Rs.
2)IDBI(76.90) October month future-Lot Size 1200 shares.
Buy one lot of IDBI October month future@76.90
Sell one call option of Sail October month strike price80@2.95 Rs.
Premium Received=2.95*1200=3540.00 Rs.
Max Profit=80-76.90=3.1+2.95=6.05*1200=7260.00 Rs.
Max loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea
1)DR REDDY(550.10)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)SATYAM (314.70)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
...
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After such a massive sell off the TRIN of NYSE is 0.08.... which is height of overbought lol and with such a divergence where the dow sold off but NYSE went up this is a highly bullish indicator. Of course i am comparing dow prices and NYSE TRIN.It would be better to compare DOW TRIN AND DOW PRICES instead which i will do from today.
Watch this space, let me check DOW`S TRIN.
The DOW however shows accumulation so the TRIN of dow should be overbought.
Dow closed lower though LOL... but sometimes these bullish scents are picked by the markets before dow picks its own scent and trades in the green. I guess we should be optimistic for the coming week.
However let me check Nifty and DOW TRIN.
Just plain views, i have been right only 20% of the times so dont trade based on these predictions....
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Nifty closed above 3824? Bailout passed as well :-) But unfortunately no bounce back :-(...
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
TERMINATOR needs $7 billion bailout for California.
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TERMINATOR needs $7 billion bailout for California....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
house passes the $ 700 billion bill but dow just dives down and almost loosing all the gains.
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house passes the $ 700 billion bill but dow just dives down and almost loosing all the gains....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
nifty is closed at 3824.55 ha ha who is playing this game, some one has the mastery . EWT just being lucky again, let us see if market remains lucky or not.
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Yes I remember we talked about it while ago, I totally forgot it because of the too much concentration in work and market...sorry.....
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : raj_tibs
Indira Securities.. I have a terminal software... You can check with Indiabulls as they also have a terminal software, and may allow trading in LT options for terminal users.
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Indira Securities.. I have a terminal software... You can check with Indiabulls as they also have a terminal software, and may allow trading in LT options for terminal users....
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Raj_tibs,
Which brokerage do you use for Long term options?
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Dear Raj_tibs,
Which brokerage do you use for Long term options?
...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : raj_tibs
Why selling options is better than buying options?
1. You get the time and risk premium rather than pay it
2. You can rollover your positions.... e.g. lets say i sell Oct 4000 PE, believing that the market will be above 4000 on Oct 2008. Now, if the Nifty is at 3800 on Oct 27, i can still rollover the position profitably! If you have noticed, the options for the next month are always more expensive than the current month. So on Oct 27, i will be able to buy the Oct 4000 put for about 250, and sell the Nov 4000 put for about 350!
Of course, 2 will work as long as you are able to maintain the margin requirements, and as eventually the market will go above 4000, you will not suffer a loss. If you had bought a 4100 call instead, your money is gone if Nifty falls!
Buying options is ok for the purpose of hedging... e.g. when buying a future, buy a put option to protect the losses on the downside (even here, i find selling an out of money call works better). e.g. if the market opens at 4100 tomorrow, and you are still bullish - buy a Nifty future, and sell a 4200 call (say for 100 rs). Now, you are maximum profit is limited to 200 (100 points on the future, and 100 for the call premium)... And on the downside, you do not make a loss till 4000 (but your losses are unlimited)
Lets say you protect the downside by buying a put - say 4000 put at Rs 100. Now your losses are limited to 200, and your profits are unlimited (but you make profits only if Nifty crosses 4200, when you buy the future at 4100).
One scenario where buying an option makes a lot of sense to me is when looking at really long term positions.... e.g. a position for more than 3 years.... So buy a Dec 2011 4000 PE at say 1000, and buy a future. You make profits if nifty goes above 5000. And if you think the Nifty will be above 7000 in Dec 2011, 1000 is a decent insurance for a possible profit of 2000... you can reduce the insurance by buying more futures (so buy 1 put and buy 2 futures).
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Can we buy Reliance Industries for the short tem gain...
In reply to:
Expect flat to negative opening: Gujral
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Passing out of US bail out package was not able to lift the sentiments in European and Asian markets as well. Nifty may have a flat to negative opening today.
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