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Market Analysis - Technical View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
What you say is all illogical and too optimistic.There are hardly any buyer in the market .day dreaming is of no use.With fii selling,no local participation your visualisation is simply not possible.A rally of 500-1000 points possible as on every higher level selling comes....
In reply to:
10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL
Posted by :
amarakbar
Dear Friends,
My view based on my limited knowledge and experience of markets is,
We are at HISTORIC BREAKOUT probability point for - Stock market in INDIA -
We have seen in last five years fantastic returns on investment observed in many stocks in such a short timespan of 5 to 8 years- we had not even imagined such returns in our whole trading and investing life-
After such bull runs come period of sideways and down moves where stocks change hands -
we are in such down move since last 8 months Jan2008 being month of all time high top - how long this down move will last and when new upward breakout will happen is the most important issue in many minds today.
Technical view-
We are much below YEARLY open of year 2008 thus without doubt in a correction mode / sideways/ down move at present.
Fresh buying is just too scary if yearly outlook is considered.
Let us zoom in - quarterly outlook-
2008 First quarter Jan- Mar 08 was bearish candle
second quarter Apr - Jun 08 was also bearish candle
BUT July - Sep 08 is DEFINITELY BULLISH - we are above open of July 08 in many stocks thus it says - POSSIBILITY of FRESH UPMOVE is VERY MUCH THERE in the offing -
As a chartist , wait for sep 08 close for confirmation is best strategy at present.
If July- Sep 08 is doji with lower leg then a GOOD probability of OCT - DEC 08 Bullish candle resulting into quarterly morning star pattern will arise .
Zoom in further into monthly charts-
Chechout simple 3 month moving average of most leading stocks and you will find that for Sep 08 a bull candle above 3 month simple moving average showing bullish breakout is very EASY as 3 month moving average is very VULNERABLE / POISED for yielding in favour of bulls.
Weekly and daily chart suggest such breakout is JUST AROUND THE CORNER and countdown is already on for probable MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS,
Targets RIL 4500
Relcap 5000
RPL 480
RNRL 350
and many more for many other stocks.
Prepare yourselves for new top.
Experience says Operators are long , Morons are short.
Disclaimer-
I hold RNRL and RPL and plan to buy more any stock i like for investment- do your own homework before taking any decision - these are pure personal views - MANY FRIENDS KNOW their MEANING-
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
This message is my ADVANCE return gift to you all friends and wellwishers as today-
Shitla saptami - vad saptami of shravan is my BIRTHDAY .
Born on a day before LORD Krishna- Jai Shree Krishna- Pranam to Elder friends- Love to younger friends- Jaadu ki zappi to all-
Wish you all profits and peace of mind. 
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear panasonic,
Beginning of trading of currency- rupee- fully convertible - in an era of current interest rates will result into - HUGE CASH FLOW into INDIA , resulting in interest rates correction from current highs in very near future- 1-2 quarters- good debt market will be there soon-
everything happening as expected at beginning of this year and as posted here on mmb in jan2008 - will repost that message later for those who have missed it-
Elections are coming in next few quarters in INDIA after US elections (which will affect world economy) so any bull will become nervous as election means uncertainty- who will come into power in INDIA - we all know there will be no majority of any single party - whatever it will be, it will be COALITION- but as soon as elections are over , good rally can definitely emerge based on sentiments and expectations of continuation of reforms- if left supported party comes into power , pure sentiment can cause bse30 below 10k toward 6 to 8 k, if any other coalition comes into power, bse30 will make new high 27 to 29k in 2009-2010 period. The first year of new govt in INDIA.
Let us all wait and watch as the destiny unfolds.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
p.s. As a cautious investor, value in terms of earnings per share and assets and bookvalue and networth must never be ignored as many quickbuck -so called momentum- plays- cause major heartburns when they fail due to overload of moron latecomer investors.
...
In reply to:
10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL
Posted by :
panasonic
bull run will very much depend on interest rate , inflation & power generation , if india passed out in all these three fear factors then we can grow more than 9% again .
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
bull run will very much depend on interest rate , inflation & power generation , if india passed out in all these three fear factors then we can grow more than 9% again . ...
In reply to:
10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Friends,
My view based on my limited knowledge and experience of markets is,
We are at HISTORIC BREAKOUT probability point for - Stock market in INDIA -
We have seen in last five years fantastic returns on investment observed in many stocks in such a short timespan of 5 to 8 years- we had not even imagined such returns in our whole trading and investing life-
After such bull runs come period of sideways and down moves where stocks change hands -
we are in such down move since last 8 months Jan2008 being month of all time high top - how long this down move will last and when new upward breakout will happen is the most important issue in many minds today.
Technical view-
We are much below YEARLY open of year 2008 thus without doubt in a correction mode / sideways/ down move at present.
Fresh buying is just too scary if yearly outlook is considered.
Let us zoom in - quarterly outlook-
2008 First quarter Jan- Mar 08 was bearish candle
second quarter Apr - Jun 08 was also bearish candle
BUT July - Sep 08 is DEFINITELY BULLISH - we are above open of July 08 in many stocks thus it says - POSSIBILITY of FRESH UPMOVE is VERY MUCH THERE in the offing -
As a chartist , wait for sep 08 close for confirmation is best strategy at present.
If July- Sep 08 is doji with lower leg then a GOOD probability of OCT - DEC 08 Bullish candle resulting into quarterly morning star pattern will arise .
Zoom in further into monthly charts-
Chechout simple 3 month moving average of most leading stocks and you will find that for Sep 08 a bull candle above 3 month simple moving average showing bullish breakout is very EASY as 3 month moving average is very VULNERABLE / POISED for yielding in favour of bulls.
Weekly and daily chart suggest such breakout is JUST AROUND THE CORNER and countdown is already on for probable MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS,
Targets RIL 4500
Relcap 5000
RPL 480
RNRL 350
and many more for many other stocks.
Prepare yourselves for new top.
Experience says Operators are long , Morons are short.
Disclaimer-
I hold RNRL and RPL and plan to buy more any stock i like for investment- do your own homework before taking any decision - these are pure personal views - MANY FRIENDS KNOW their MEANING-
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
This message is my ADVANCE return gift to you all friends and wellwishers as today-
Shitla saptami - vad saptami of shravan is my BIRTHDAY .
Born on a day before LORD Krishna- Jai Shree Krishna- Pranam to Elder friends- Love to younger friends- Jaadu ki zappi to all-
Wish you all profits and peace of mind.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Every aspect bearish... adx, distribution, rsi sell.. lol... i will stick with my puts.. now i have some profits too bought at Rs 124, now its Rs 141...
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
The PCR for Augsut will be oversold as expiry is round the corner and most would expect the markets to be rangebound. So the number is okay and in keeping with the sentiments.
But the markets are overbought says RSI.. let me check now that the markets have scaled down if it persists... dont follow my call... i have been wrong many times...and sometimes i am very stubborn about my views..
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The PCR for Augsut will be oversold as expiry is round the corner and most would expect the markets to be rangebound. So the number is okay and in keeping with the sentiments.
But the markets are overbought says RSI.. let me check now that the markets have scaled down if it persists... dont follow my call... i have been wrong many times...and sometimes i am very stubborn about my views.....
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by :
billion@60
Radhika, The 4,300 put continues to see a healthy build-up of over 30 lakh shares, logically making it a substantial support. Some of the out-of-the money calls like the 4,400 and 4,500 saw healthy unwinding on Friday. If you add on to it the fact that at 0.78 the PCR of Nifty August option contracts continues to be highly oversold despite Friday’s recovery. The most important factor is the re-conquer of the 50 DMA just a day after surrendering it on Thursday. I may be wrong but I believe the Nifty will remain bullish in the near term.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Radhika, The 4,300 put continues to see a healthy build-up of over 30 lakh shares, logically making it a substantial support. Some of the out-of-the money calls like the 4,400 and 4,500 saw healthy unwinding on Friday. If you add on to it the fact that at 0.78 the PCR of Nifty August option contracts continues to be highly oversold despite Friday’s recovery. The most important factor is the re-conquer of the 50 DMA just a day after surrendering it on Thursday. I may be wrong but I believe the Nifty will remain bullish in the near term....
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Sorry nifty puts strikes, 4500 and 4300 not 4400 august expiry ... so what do u suggest.. good decision or bad? Total 5 puts.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Akkbatra,
All August series......
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : akkbatra
Dear RN, which series ? Sept puts seem costly. thanks.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Akkbatra,
RSI sell divergences are quite emphatic you know.. but i could just be behavnig stubborn.. never know.. markets will let me know tomrrow i guess. LOL...
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : akkbatra
Dear RN,
Markets showing very tough resistance at 4400 Nifty. Tomorrow might be altogether a different story. And when your Sell divergence is there, it seems OK kind of a strategy. Better to buy / hold Puts than Calls, atleast for Aug series.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear RN,
Markets showing very tough resistance at 4400 Nifty. Tomorrow might be altogether a different story. And when your Sell divergence is there, it seems OK kind of a strategy. Better to buy / hold Puts than Calls, atleast for Aug series....
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Sorry nifty puts strikes, 4500 and 4300 not 4400 august expiry ... so what do u suggest.. good decision or bad? Total 5 puts.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear RN, which series ? Sept puts seem costly. thanks....
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
billion,
i see one big RSI SELL DIVERGENCE on the nifty... i squared off my MININIFTY for losses but bught 50 x 5 = 250 total nifty puts strike 4400 and 4300
with minnifty i would have had only 60 units now i have 250 units to make up for my losses or even out... lol
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Sorry nifty puts strikes, 4500 and 4300 not 4400 august expiry ... so what do u suggest.. good decision or bad? Total 5 puts....
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
billion,
i see one big RSI SELL DIVERGENCE on the nifty... i squared off my MININIFTY for losses but bught 50 x 5 = 250 total nifty puts strike 4400 and 4300
with minnifty i would have had only 60 units now i have 250 units to make up for my losses or even out... lol
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
billion,
i see one big RSI SELL DIVERGENCE on the nifty... i squared off my MININIFTY for losses but bught 50 x 5 = 250 total nifty puts strike 4400 and 4300
with minnifty i would have had only 60 units now i have 250 units to make up for my losses or even out... lol...
In reply to:
Nifty - Support & Resistance
Posted by : billion@60
Radhika, Trend in crude oil prices and inflation will continue to be key factors to watch in the near term. The Indian GDP data for Q1 FY09 to be announced on 29th August may provide a ray of hope for the markets. This is settlement week so there are chances of short covering, which could lift the market. The upside in case of short covering could be about 4450. I will go short on Nifty only below 4159.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Nifty will not see any resistnce at 4440 from my point of view as that figure is getting revisited almost 3 times since rally has resumed. I think Nifty at 4660-4700 will have some resistance but even that resistance could be of small time as olympics are over & we might see drop in crude demand & increase in supply & also pressure on Crude from OPEC & US Cong remains prominent utill it reaches USD 70 per barrel. So, I think global markets to cheer now. ...
In reply to:
See Nifty resistance at 4440: Ashwani Gujral
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Technical analyst Ashwani Gujral said that the next resistance for Nifty will be at 4440 levels. According to him, liquidity is getting sucked by the FIIs and RBI. He feels that this is a tough market to trade and people need to trade markets at 4200-4600 levels.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
why u are shorting nifty at 4298...
In reply to:
See Nifty resistance at 4440: Ashwani Gujral
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Technical analyst Ashwani Gujral said that the next resistance for Nifty will be at 4440 levels. According to him, liquidity is getting sucked by the FIIs and RBI. He feels that this is a tough market to trade and people need to trade markets at 4200-4600 levels.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Technical analyst Ashwani Gujral said that the next resistance for Nifty will be at 4440 levels. According to him, liquidity is getting sucked by the FIIs and RBI. He feels that this is a tough market to trade and people need to trade markets at 4200-4600 levels....
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