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Market Analysis - Technical View
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Well forget Dow for low tech booms and high tech booms, look at Nikkei of 1990`s, look at Nasdaq of 2000`s for high tech booms, and also if u are not forgetting I had posted a message over here about the Japanese deflation and said that we might be replicating the same, u too had posted ur view on the same. Also if VipulBhai is reading this I had said to him when sensex was close to 15k `regarding his statement of mother of all bull runs` that let first 12 k come to see a mini bull run from 12k to 15K and then 8k to come to see a mother of all bullruns but albiet a short one ending at 12k, so well now close to 9k might be a short term bottom which wud target 12.5 k as fast as it can to say that it is a mother of all bull runs, we might even get an upper circuit which one of our boarder here had desired, but then we wud be starting time wise correction (which might run a decade or too) wherein the sensex might trade first 8K to 14k then 6K to 12K and lastly 4K to 10K. Next bull run doesnt seem to start before 30 - 40 yrs....
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by :
radhika_nandlal
In most recessions DOW has touched close to 50% lows from peaks and 7000 may be a bottom but in the financial sector collapse during the 1930s DOW touched almost 89% lows.. yes.. take a look at the following data
Great depression 1929 to 1939 marked by banking collapse
DowJones lowest at 41.22 on July 8, 1932
DowJones Highest at 381.17 on September 3, 1929
Dowjones Average being 150.83
NOT TO SCARE YOU GUYS lol
Of course you cannot compare the low tech 1930s with the high tech but 2008, but high tech can cause more serious problems. LOL
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Why does IMF want to ratchet up pressure on poor?
From Mr Rick Rowden.
Sir, If the International Monetary Fund is projecting that the world economy is now entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s, and that "that global growth was likely to slow to 3.9 per cent growth in 2008 and 3 per cent in 2009, sharply down from 5 per cent growth last year" ("IMF forecasts global slowdown", FT. com, October 8), then why is it still making its assistance to low-income countries conditional on the adoption of tighter fiscal and monetary policies?
As the northern markets for developing country exports begin to dry up, such policies will only make a bad situation even worse for the world`s poorest countries. ActionAid has analysed the IMF programmes for 15 countries for which the IMF has pledged scaled-up emergency assistance in response to price increases for food and fuel imports, and found that in almost every case the IMF is still calling for ratcheting down moderate inflation and deficits .
The monetarists at the IMF offer the same policy prescriptions whether times are good, neutral or bad - tighten policy and cut public spending. But if the rich countries are now seeking to soften the blows of a pending recession and protect businesses and jobs by lowering interest rates and increasing public spending, then shouldn`t developing countries be allowed to do the same?
Rick Rowden,
Senior Policy Analyst,
ActionAid International USA,
Washington, DC, US
...
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : sambala
India for greater IMF watch on major economies
Washington, Oct 11 (IANS) India has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refocus and strengthen its traditional surveillance and lending functions as part of efforts to resolve the global financial crisis with the spotlight on important bigger countries.”The twin crises - in the financial markets and the commodity price increases - bring to the fore the role of the Fund,” Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told the International Monetary and Financial Committee Meeting here Saturday.
Noting that the Fund’s role, particularly in the financial crisis, has been perceived as peripheral, he said it should be unambiguously tasked with the mandate of providing the global public good of financial stability.
In the absence of the minister who has cancelled his trip, his statement was read out by Reserve Bank of India governor D. Subbarao, who is now leading the Indian delegation at the World Bank-Fund meetings as also at the meeting of the Group of 20 major economies.
Suggesting that IMF may be best suited to play the role of the conductor in organising orchestrating efforts to resolve the crisis of global proportions, he said: “As a first step, the Fund’s response should be refocusing and strengthening the Fund’s traditional surveillance and lending functions.
“Exchange rates are important in the Fund’s surveillance but financial sector stability, the orderly flow of capital, and the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector are equally critical if not more important issues,” the Indian delegate said.
Urging the Fund to adopt “a more wholesome, balanced and priority-driven approach to surveillance”, he said: “I reiterate the need for greater focus on systemically important countries, since developments in such countries tend to impact all other countries, particularly smaller ones.”
Chidambaram also suggested a clear division of labour between the Fund and other international financial institutions (IFIs) avoiding overlaps in financing mandates and development of appropriate instruments that would appeal to different types of member-countries.
“The usefulness of a contingent credit line as an instrument of crisis prevention tailored for emerging market economies undertaking reforms has been well recognized and work on this aspect needs to be expedited,” he said.
“A review of the Fund’s lending function should also take note of the resource position of the Fund, he said noting that since the Eleventh Review of quotas in 1998 there has been no general increase in quotas.
“The issue of governance continues to be critical to the legitimacy, credibility and effectiveness of the Fund,” the Indian delegate said describing “continuance of the process of realignment of quotas and voice” as the most crucial issue.
India, he said, supported the proposed three-pronged process - work based on the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) report; the recommendations expected from the Trevor Manuel Committee of Eminent Persons; and the inputs from civil society.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
India for greater IMF watch on major economies
Washington, Oct 11 (IANS) India has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refocus and strengthen its traditional surveillance and lending functions as part of efforts to resolve the global financial crisis with the spotlight on important bigger countries.”The twin crises - in the financial markets and the commodity price increases - bring to the fore the role of the Fund,” Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told the International Monetary and Financial Committee Meeting here Saturday.
Noting that the Fund’s role, particularly in the financial crisis, has been perceived as peripheral, he said it should be unambiguously tasked with the mandate of providing the global public good of financial stability.
In the absence of the minister who has cancelled his trip, his statement was read out by Reserve Bank of India governor D. Subbarao, who is now leading the Indian delegation at the World Bank-Fund meetings as also at the meeting of the Group of 20 major economies.
Suggesting that IMF may be best suited to play the role of the conductor in organising orchestrating efforts to resolve the crisis of global proportions, he said: “As a first step, the Fund’s response should be refocusing and strengthening the Fund’s traditional surveillance and lending functions.
“Exchange rates are important in the Fund’s surveillance but financial sector stability, the orderly flow of capital, and the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector are equally critical if not more important issues,” the Indian delegate said.
Urging the Fund to adopt “a more wholesome, balanced and priority-driven approach to surveillance”, he said: “I reiterate the need for greater focus on systemically important countries, since developments in such countries tend to impact all other countries, particularly smaller ones.”
Chidambaram also suggested a clear division of labour between the Fund and other international financial institutions (IFIs) avoiding overlaps in financing mandates and development of appropriate instruments that would appeal to different types of member-countries.
“The usefulness of a contingent credit line as an instrument of crisis prevention tailored for emerging market economies undertaking reforms has been well recognized and work on this aspect needs to be expedited,” he said.
“A review of the Fund’s lending function should also take note of the resource position of the Fund, he said noting that since the Eleventh Review of quotas in 1998 there has been no general increase in quotas.
“The issue of governance continues to be critical to the legitimacy, credibility and effectiveness of the Fund,” the Indian delegate said describing “continuance of the process of realignment of quotas and voice” as the most crucial issue.
India, he said, supported the proposed three-pronged process - work based on the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) report; the recommendations expected from the Trevor Manuel Committee of Eminent Persons; and the inputs from civil society.
...
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : sambala
Post-war system no longer up to the task of global finance
THE new UK Business Secretary, Peter Mandelson, argued last week that new global solutions were needed because "the machinery of global economic governance barely exists", adding: "It is time for a Bretton Woods for this century".
With war raging across the globe in July 1944, ministers from all 44 Allied nations met at the imposing Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to thrash out a set of rules that would govern world finance once Hitler was defeated.
Knowing that greater international trade would help to prevent future wars, and determined to avoid another Great Depression, the delegates signed the Bretton Woods Agreements, creating the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
It was a big vision, driven by grand historical figures: Winston Churchill, Franklin D Roosevelt and the British economist, John Maynard Keynes.
Currency links
The currency links in the system collapsed in the 1970s and what is left has, not surprisingly, proved ill-equipped to deal with the fiendishly complex practices of 21st-century banking that led to the current worldwide crisis.
Neither the IMF, the World Bank nor any other institution has the power to police the global financial system in a way that might have prevented the excessive risk-taking which led to the subprime mortgage crisis and, in turn, the credit crunch.
"The current system is in crisis and we have an environment where dog eats dog," said Bob McKee, of the UK economic consultancy Independent Strategy.
"Electorates will expect more regulation, and politicians will push for it."
As the world`s central bankers gather this week in Washington DC for an IMF-World Bank conference to discuss the crisis, the big question they face is whether it is time to establish a global economic "policeman" to ensure the crash of 2008 can never be repeated.
Top of the to-do list for any new or reformed body would be new rules to manage the level of risk that banks and financial institutions are allowed to take on.
Chaos
As chaos reigns in the financial markets, the issue of regulatory reform is never far from the headlines. So what might a new architecture of global economic regulation look like?
In essence, any organisation with the power to police the global economy would have to include representatives of every major country -- a United Nations of economic regulation. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, identified the weakness of the current system this week when he said international organisations that excluded countries such as China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Russia were outdated.
Gerard Lyons, a member of the International Council of the Bretton Woods Committee, a steering group for the IMF and World Bank, said: "We need to look at the current crisis and decide what banks have been doing well and what went wrong. We have an opportunity now to make changes in global banking that make sure we keep all the good bits and eradicate the bad."
Danny Gabay, a former Bank of England economist, suggested the answer might already be staring us in the face, in the form of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the umbrella organisation for the committee that came up with the Basle II Accord.
"The BIS has been spot on throughout this," he said.
"The problem is that it has no teeth.
Warnings
The IMF tends to couch its warnings about economic problems in very diplomatic language, but the BIS is more independent and much better placed to deal with this if it is given the power to do so."
By Gordon Rayner
Saturday October 11 2008
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Post-war system no longer up to the task of global finance
THE new UK Business Secretary, Peter Mandelson, argued last week that new global solutions were needed because "the machinery of global economic governance barely exists", adding: "It is time for a Bretton Woods for this century".
With war raging across the globe in July 1944, ministers from all 44 Allied nations met at the imposing Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to thrash out a set of rules that would govern world finance once Hitler was defeated.
Knowing that greater international trade would help to prevent future wars, and determined to avoid another Great Depression, the delegates signed the Bretton Woods Agreements, creating the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
It was a big vision, driven by grand historical figures: Winston Churchill, Franklin D Roosevelt and the British economist, John Maynard Keynes.
Currency links
The currency links in the system collapsed in the 1970s and what is left has, not surprisingly, proved ill-equipped to deal with the fiendishly complex practices of 21st-century banking that led to the current worldwide crisis.
Neither the IMF, the World Bank nor any other institution has the power to police the global financial system in a way that might have prevented the excessive risk-taking which led to the subprime mortgage crisis and, in turn, the credit crunch.
"The current system is in crisis and we have an environment where dog eats dog," said Bob McKee, of the UK economic consultancy Independent Strategy.
"Electorates will expect more regulation, and politicians will push for it."
As the world`s central bankers gather this week in Washington DC for an IMF-World Bank conference to discuss the crisis, the big question they face is whether it is time to establish a global economic "policeman" to ensure the crash of 2008 can never be repeated.
Top of the to-do list for any new or reformed body would be new rules to manage the level of risk that banks and financial institutions are allowed to take on.
Chaos
As chaos reigns in the financial markets, the issue of regulatory reform is never far from the headlines. So what might a new architecture of global economic regulation look like?
In essence, any organisation with the power to police the global economy would have to include representatives of every major country -- a United Nations of economic regulation. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, identified the weakness of the current system this week when he said international organisations that excluded countries such as China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Russia were outdated.
Gerard Lyons, a member of the International Council of the Bretton Woods Committee, a steering group for the IMF and World Bank, said: "We need to look at the current crisis and decide what banks have been doing well and what went wrong. We have an opportunity now to make changes in global banking that make sure we keep all the good bits and eradicate the bad."
Danny Gabay, a former Bank of England economist, suggested the answer might already be staring us in the face, in the form of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the umbrella organisation for the committee that came up with the Basle II Accord.
"The BIS has been spot on throughout this," he said.
"The problem is that it has no teeth.
Warnings
The IMF tends to couch its warnings about economic problems in very diplomatic language, but the BIS is more independent and much better placed to deal with this if it is given the power to do so."
By Gordon Rayner
Saturday October 11 2008
...
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : sambala
Post-war system no longer up to the task of global finance
The current system is in crisis and we have an environment where DOG eats DOG," said Bob McKee, of the UK economic consultancy Independent Strategy.
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Post-war system no longer up to the task of global finance
The current system is in crisis and we have an environment where DOG eats DOG," said Bob McKee, of the UK economic consultancy Independent Strategy....
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : sambala
Around $4,600 billion has been wiped off the value of shares worldwide this week – more than one and a half times the total amount of cash generated by the UK economy last year.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Around $4,600 billion has been wiped off the value of shares worldwide this week – more than one and a half times the total amount of cash generated by the UK economy last year....
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : sambala
IMF warns of world financial system `meltdown`
The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world financial system stands on the "brink of systemic meltdown", despite international efforts to bring the crisis to an end.
By Edmund Conway in Washington
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF`s managing director, made the comments after talks with US President George W Bush and other leading finance minister in Washington as they tried to find a solution to the global financial turmoil, which has seen stock markets around the world plunge on fears of recession.
He said: "Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown."
The IMF also warned global equities could plunge by a further 20 per cent in the coming days unless governments deliver concrete action to address the crisis.
At the meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading world economies, including the UK and US, world leaders pledged to part-nationalise swathes of the global banking system as part of a drastic international plan to halt the panic gripping financial markets and prevent the crisis from descending into a global depression.
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading world economies, including the UK and US, said they stood ready to pump public money into banks in order to prevent them from collapse.
The agreement came as Chancellor Alistair Darling admitted that the UK was facing "turbulence the like of which we have never seen" after markets ended their worst week in history, with shares having fallen by more than a fifth on all leading stock exchanges.
The G7 presented a five-point "Plan of Action" to arrest the turmoil, including, most significantly a promise to "ensure that our banks…can raise capital from public and well as private sources, in sufficient amounts to re-establish confidence and permit them to continue lending to households and businesses."
It leaves the G7 – which also includes Japan, France, Italy and Canada – open to start buying bank shares with taxpayers’ cash.
US Treasury Sectretary Hank Paulson said he was preparing to use the American $700bn bail-out scheme to fund buying troubled banks’ shares. It mirrors Gordon Brown’s £50 billion bail-out of Britain’s struggling institutions unveiled earlier this week.
With investors gripped by panic, the FTSE 100 has fallen by 21 per cent this week, and yesterday alone suffered a drop of 8.9 per cent – the third biggest in history.
Despite assurances from President George W Bush, shares in Wall Street fell for an eighth successive day on Friday, while the pound and the euro slumped against other currencies.
The agreement produced last night by finance ministers in Washington is thought to represent a last-ditch attempt for governments to prevent the financial crisis from worsening yet further next week. Some experts fear that unless it succeeds in boosting confidence the financial system may collapse entirely, threatening a worse economic slump than was experienced in the 1930s.
The G7 statement, which was among the most eagerly awaited in recent history, said: "[We agree] today that the current situation calls for urgent and exceptional action."
Mr Paulson described the G7 statement as "an aggressive action plan to address the turmoil in global financial markets and the stresses on our financial institutions."
Among the five pledges was a promise to protect savers’ deposits when banks collapse.
It came after Mr Darling and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King pledged to do everything in their power to prevent economic catastrophe. On a frenzied day in financial centres across the world, Mr Darling urged his fellow ministers to "step up to the mark and do something"
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IMF warns of world financial system `meltdown`
The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world financial system stands on the "brink of systemic meltdown", despite international efforts to bring the crisis to an end.
By Edmund Conway in Washington
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF`s managing director, made the comments after talks with US President George W Bush and other leading finance minister in Washington as they tried to find a solution to the global financial turmoil, which has seen stock markets around the world plunge on fears of recession.
He said: "Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown."
The IMF also warned global equities could plunge by a further 20 per cent in the coming days unless governments deliver concrete action to address the crisis.
At the meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading world economies, including the UK and US, world leaders pledged to part-nationalise swathes of the global banking system as part of a drastic international plan to halt the panic gripping financial markets and prevent the crisis from descending into a global depression.
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading world economies, including the UK and US, said they stood ready to pump public money into banks in order to prevent them from collapse.
The agreement came as Chancellor Alistair Darling admitted that the UK was facing "turbulence the like of which we have never seen" after markets ended their worst week in history, with shares having fallen by more than a fifth on all leading stock exchanges.
The G7 presented a five-point "Plan of Action" to arrest the turmoil, including, most significantly a promise to "ensure that our banks…can raise capital from public and well as private sources, in sufficient amounts to re-establish confidence and permit them to continue lending to households and businesses."
It leaves the G7 – which also includes Japan, France, Italy and Canada – open to start buying bank shares with taxpayers’ cash.
US Treasury Sectretary Hank Paulson said he was preparing to use the American $700bn bail-out scheme to fund buying troubled banks’ shares. It mirrors Gordon Brown’s £50 billion bail-out of Britain’s struggling institutions unveiled earlier this week.
With investors gripped by panic, the FTSE 100 has fallen by 21 per cent this week, and yesterday alone suffered a drop of 8.9 per cent – the third biggest in history.
Despite assurances from President George W Bush, shares in Wall Street fell for an eighth successive day on Friday, while the pound and the euro slumped against other currencies.
The agreement produced last night by finance ministers in Washington is thought to represent a last-ditch attempt for governments to prevent the financial crisis from worsening yet further next week. Some experts fear that unless it succeeds in boosting confidence the financial system may collapse entirely, threatening a worse economic slump than was experienced in the 1930s.
The G7 statement, which was among the most eagerly awaited in recent history, said: "[We agree] today that the current situation calls for urgent and exceptional action."
Mr Paulson described the G7 statement as "an aggressive action plan to address the turmoil in global financial markets and the stresses on our financial institutions."
Among the five pledges was a promise to protect savers’ deposits when banks collapse.
It came after Mr Darling and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King pledged to do everything in their power to prevent economic catastrophe. On a frenzied day in financial centres across the world, Mr Darling urged his fellow ministers to "step up to the mark and do something"
...
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : sambala
IMF warns of world financial system `meltdown`
The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world financial system stands on the
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
IMF warns of world financial system `meltdown`
The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world financial system stands on the ...
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
In most recessions DOW has touched close to 50% lows from peaks and 7000 may be a bottom but in the financial sector collapse during the 1930s DOW touched almost 89% lows.. yes.. take a look at the following data
Great depression 1929 to 1939 marked by banking collapse
DowJones lowest at 41.22 on July 8, 1932
DowJones Highest at 381.17 on September 3, 1929
Dowjones Average being 150.83
NOT TO SCARE YOU GUYS lol
Of course you cannot compare the low tech 1930s with the high tech but 2008, but high tech can cause more serious problems. LOL
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//
Paid in Capital :
The difference between par or book-keeping value of a security and the amount realised from the sale or distribution of those shares by the company.
//
Paid up Capital :
The amount of capital, both equity and preference, paid up by the shareholders against the capital subscribed to by them.
//
TC-121008-S-01...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
.....................
Forward Contract
.....................
An agreement for the future delivery of the underlying commodity or security at a specified price at the end of a designated period of time. Unlike a future contract, a forward contract is traded over the counter and its terms are negotiated individually. There is no clearing house for forward contracts, and the secondary market may be non-existent or thin.
TC-111008-S-01
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
In most recessions DOW has touched close to 50% lows from peaks and 7000 may be a bottom but in the financial sector collapse during the 1930s DOW touched almost 89% lows.. yes.. take a look at the following data
Great depression 1929 to 1939 marked by banking collapse
DowJones lowest at 41.22 on July 8, 1932
DowJones Highest at 381.17 on September 3, 1929
Dowjones Average being 150.83
NOT TO SCARE YOU GUYS lol
Of course you cannot compare the low tech 1930s with the high tech but 2008, but high tech can cause more serious problems. LOL
...
In reply to:
For Monday October 13th
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
My simple general views which may go wrong also. LOL
The NIFTY, the Sensex, the Dow are all completely bearish. The DOW however does show accumulation. The TRINS are all completely bearish and oversold at greater than 1, but the NYSE TRIN is far too bearish at 17... yes its oversold at a whopping 17 even though they recovered so much and saw so much volatility. I am not sure if the TRIN recovered though coz i dint calculate the TRIN at the height of loss for that day, but this TRIN of 17 is so so so bearish.... until now the NYSE TRIN showed a neutral value but ystday it shows a TRIN of 17. Anyone calculated TRIN for NYSE, do u confirm its 17.
I wont touch a call option with such a TRIN. May be Dow could touch 7000 on Monday.
But i have been wrong 75% of the times so please dont hold me responsible. I am just reading the technicals as is.
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My simple general views which may go wrong also. LOL
The NIFTY, the Sensex, the Dow are all completely bearish. The DOW however does show accumulation. The TRINS are all completely bearish and oversold at greater than 1, but the NYSE TRIN is far too bearish at 17... yes its oversold at a whopping 17 even though they recovered so much and saw so much volatility. I am not sure if the TRIN recovered though coz i dint calculate the TRIN at the height of loss for that day, but this TRIN of 17 is so so so bearish.... until now the NYSE TRIN showed a neutral value but ystday it shows a TRIN of 17. Anyone calculated TRIN for NYSE, do u confirm its 17.
I wont touch a call option with such a TRIN. May be Dow could touch 7000 on Monday.
But i have been wrong 75% of the times so please dont hold me responsible. I am just reading the technicals as is....
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Well how many contradictory messages urs truly has, I thought I might complete my overview with this last message, but it seems 2 -3 messages more required
Urs truly said -
Chart is ALWAYS your best friend.
It shows you the way.
Chartist may be wrong due to various reasons- biased mind, own buy/sell position, way of thinking, experience etc
BUT CHARTS ARE NEVER WRONG.
In the same message Urs truly writes
Now the time is for those who are ABOVE ALL EMOTIONS and QUICK ACTING TYPE.
Have STRICT STOPLOSS for ANY LONG position at CURRENT F and O OPEN, YEARLY OPEN as they are PIVOTAL POINTS , below those bearish outlook, above them bullish outlook, stoploss being those open only.
Now has Urs truly himself turned bias by this statement on 17th Jan 2008, the message goes as
Dear friends,
Gabbarsingh yeh kehkar gaya, JO DAR GAYA, WOH MAR GAYA.
When going gets tough, THE TOUGHS GET GOING.
Bse 30 index has breached its yearly open. except RIL group -both brothers- many shares are in downtrend since last few days.
ACC- the operator`s favourite baby is winessing nonstop selling since last few days 1100 to now 856 level- support is at 760- SToch is in OVERSOLD zone ready for spurt anytime when the selling is over - broader view shows possible head and shoulder - 760 being neckline- if that unfolds, it will be over for ACC.
Personal view is , if one had disinvested/booked profit in first week of Jan as per my advice/view message book profit in longs, NOW IS THE TIME TO REENTER LONGS.
Kyunki, PICTURE ABHI KHATAM NAHI HUA.
RIL - thursday- old days - RIL THURSDAY - kuchh bhi ho sakta hai -
RIL can lift index to new heights.
Therefore will decide TURNING.
MY VIEW IS,
TURNING IS UP.
Bse 30 index will be very volatile in next 2 days 19200-20325 range.
The unsuccessful relpower application money will CAUSE EUPHORIA like never before.
SMALLCAPS WITH GOOD BREAKOUT and STORY will appreciate THREE TIMES from current levels in next # months only- April 2008 likely top.
Tatamotor, Tatasteel accumulate .
Relenergy which touched 2166 yesterday has target 4200 Rs.
IT WILL BE A MOTHER OF RALLIES, which will BANKRUPT ALL BEARS.
DO NOT SHORT ANYTHING, DO NOT OVERTRADE, DO NOT PLAY F and O.
warm regards as always,
Vipul Lashkari
The statement to be must read over here is
Bse 30 index has breached its yearly open
...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by :
me2_4india
Continuing Forward Urs truly (with great knowledge of market turning points) said on 21st Jan 08 at 18.20 i.e after market closing and the next day big gap down market opening on 22nd January 2008 (we all know this was the day wherein sensex was at one point trading at 15% intraday loss), heres the message
Dear Harry,
You know, when going gets tough, the TOUGH gets going.
In my earlier messages i have clearly pointed that evenif rnrl becomes 108 and rpl 125 and bse 30 index 15800 even then we may make new high in current year only - technically speaking,
1. ACC 1300 odd rs to today`s low 670 - has almost COMPLETED CLASSIC A-B-C correction and now is ready for FRESH UPTREND.- Operator baby
2. RPL has similarly almost completed its A-B-C
60 Rs to 295 Rs the first wave magnitude 235 Rs present wave a corrective A-B-C 295-188 magnitude 107 Rs(A), 188-260 (B ) and now 260 -154 magnitude of 106 Rs, today the classic c is over in many shares, now any decline is a TRAP FOR BEARS .
Investors must INVEST NOW if they have disivested as per my book profit in longs message in first week of Jan 2008.
(MY STATEMENT - when did urs truly gave disinvestment call in First week of Jan, I remember the 6th Jan view of going long for target above 26k on the sensex
Urs Truly 6th Jan Message goes as cud be read
Dear chartlover friends,
Chart is ALWAYS your best friend.
It shows you the way.
Chartist may be wrong due to various reasons- biased mind, own buy/sell position, way of thinking, experience etc
BUT CHARTS ARE NEVER WRONG.
Have a look at weekly charts of LEADING A group shares- operator heavy and leading industrial gruops of India shares-
Since 17 August week their uptrends have begun , TYPICAL FLAG pattern is clearly visible in them.
Then came period of sideways move.
Most analysts defined it as DISTRIBUTION as it was after substantial rise - it was CONSOLIDATION - now breakout from that consolidation has happened- targets are MINDBOGGLING and almost ABSURD- RIL target 3800 Rs RPL target 448 RNRL target 360 REL target 4200
bse 30 index target 26000 and many more shares having fancy targets -
how, why , when is not important- 2008 it will be.
Typical Bear trap is bearish monday bullish tuesday piercing pattern, checkout if that happens next week - 7 and 8 Jan 2008.
We are in steepest ever curve rally in monthly chart.
In quarterly chart three bull soldier pattern is visible THUS, EVENIF current Jan- Mar08 quarter is BEARISH, April 08 onwards bullrun will continue.
If Jan- Mar08 quarter is big bull candle then April-June 2008 quarter will be final quarter of current bullrun and alltime high will be reached in that quarter and huge crash will materialise there.
Now the time is for those who are ABOVE ALL EMOTIONS and QUICK ACTING TYPE.
Have STRICT STOPLOSS for ANY LONG position at CURRENT F and O OPEN, YEARLY OPEN as they are PIVOTAL POINTS , below those bearish outlook, above them bullish outlook, stoploss being those open only.
If possible AVOID PLAYING F and O.
Market will always be there, if you overtrade , you will not be.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari )
3. Tatasteel , Tatamotors, Tatachem, IFCI, HFCL , ISPAT , Silverline, RIL, REL, RELCAP are now like FAIR PRICE SHOP - lootmart kind of market-
Advice to investors who have cash- INVEST in stocks of your choice, JO dar gaya samzo mar gaya.
Do not overtrade, do not borrow to invest.
High leverage has resulted into current crash, avoid that .
STILL we will touch 19500-20325 bse 30 index level BEFORE 28 FEB 2008.
Overcome greed and fear, take decision with unbiased mind.
like i have said once before, main hu naa !
MOTHER OF ALL BULLISH RALLIES IS VERY MUCH IN THE MAKING - by 29 Jan-19 Feb 2008 , all those will be sorry who will not sq off their shorts NOW at bse 30 index 17000 and nifty 4950 levels.
warm regards as always
Vipul Lashkari
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Continuing Forward Urs truly (with great knowledge of market turning points) said on 21st Jan 08 at 18.20 i.e after market closing and the next day big gap down market opening on 22nd January 2008 (we all know this was the day wherein sensex was at one point trading at 15% intraday loss), heres the message
Dear Harry,
You know, when going gets tough, the TOUGH gets going.
In my earlier messages i have clearly pointed that evenif rnrl becomes 108 and rpl 125 and bse 30 index 15800 even then we may make new high in current year only - technically speaking,
1. ACC 1300 odd rs to today`s low 670 - has almost COMPLETED CLASSIC A-B-C correction and now is ready for FRESH UPTREND.- Operator baby
2. RPL has similarly almost completed its A-B-C
60 Rs to 295 Rs the first wave magnitude 235 Rs present wave a corrective A-B-C 295-188 magnitude 107 Rs(A), 188-260 (B ) and now 260 -154 magnitude of 106 Rs, today the classic c is over in many shares, now any decline is a TRAP FOR BEARS .
Investors must INVEST NOW if they have disivested as per my book profit in longs message in first week of Jan 2008.
(MY STATEMENT - when did urs truly gave disinvestment call in First week of Jan, I remember the 6th Jan view of going long for target above 26k on the sensex
Urs Truly 6th Jan Message goes as cud be read
Dear chartlover friends,
Chart is ALWAYS your best friend.
It shows you the way.
Chartist may be wrong due to various reasons- biased mind, own buy/sell position, way of thinking, experience etc
BUT CHARTS ARE NEVER WRONG.
Have a look at weekly charts of LEADING A group shares- operator heavy and leading industrial gruops of India shares-
Since 17 August week their uptrends have begun , TYPICAL FLAG pattern is clearly visible in them.
Then came period of sideways move.
Most analysts defined it as DISTRIBUTION as it was after substantial rise - it was CONSOLIDATION - now breakout from that consolidation has happened- targets are MINDBOGGLING and almost ABSURD- RIL target 3800 Rs RPL target 448 RNRL target 360 REL target 4200
bse 30 index target 26000 and many more shares having fancy targets -
how, why , when is not important- 2008 it will be.
Typical Bear trap is bearish monday bullish tuesday piercing pattern, checkout if that happens next week - 7 and 8 Jan 2008.
We are in steepest ever curve rally in monthly chart.
In quarterly chart three bull soldier pattern is visible THUS, EVENIF current Jan- Mar08 quarter is BEARISH, April 08 onwards bullrun will continue.
If Jan- Mar08 quarter is big bull candle then April-June 2008 quarter will be final quarter of current bullrun and alltime high will be reached in that quarter and huge crash will materialise there.
Now the time is for those who are ABOVE ALL EMOTIONS and QUICK ACTING TYPE.
Have STRICT STOPLOSS for ANY LONG position at CURRENT F and O OPEN, YEARLY OPEN as they are PIVOTAL POINTS , below those bearish outlook, above them bullish outlook, stoploss being those open only.
If possible AVOID PLAYING F and O.
Market will always be there, if you overtrade , you will not be.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari )
3. Tatasteel , Tatamotors, Tatachem, IFCI, HFCL , ISPAT , Silverline, RIL, REL, RELCAP are now like FAIR PRICE SHOP - lootmart kind of market-
Advice to investors who have cash- INVEST in stocks of your choice, JO dar gaya samzo mar gaya.
Do not overtrade, do not borrow to invest.
High leverage has resulted into current crash, avoid that .
STILL we will touch 19500-20325 bse 30 index level BEFORE 28 FEB 2008.
Overcome greed and fear, take decision with unbiased mind.
like i have said once before, main hu naa !
MOTHER OF ALL BULLISH RALLIES IS VERY MUCH IN THE MAKING - by 29 Jan-19 Feb 2008 , all those will be sorry who will not sq off their shorts NOW at bse 30 index 17000 and nifty 4950 levels.
warm regards as always
Vipul Lashkari
...
In reply to:
13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall
Posted by : me2_4india
Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions
Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn)
Dear Friends,
Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA.
Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more.
WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets
(I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message)
And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07
Dear friend,
It is an ageold practice.
Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON .
Oh, now this is the reason ! like that.
Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones.
I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani.
Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360
Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past !
Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there !
Their best gift to their late father.
Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS .
warm regards as always
And well on 29 DEC 08
In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010
rpl 120 223 510-558
rnrl 81 178 260-360
Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market
Dear Bearcartel,
My view at present is,
Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter.
For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE,
SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt
1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268
2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45
3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55
4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982
Dear Chartlover friends,
From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market-
MONTHLY CHART
1. January 2008 Big bull candle
Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements
2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE
Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking-
Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march .
FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls.
If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc
BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
3. March 2008 Big bull candle
making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar.
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Bear Cartel,
Yes there was no ban on shortselling in futures market.. it was only cash i realize....
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : BearCartel
Short selling cannot be banned here without closing down the futures markets... even shortselling in cash has been banned in other countries not the futures market... if shortselling is banned then how can the futures market operate ? only buyers for futures is impossible... the shorting ban elsewhere is for shorts in cash without delivery....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Short selling cannot be banned here without closing down the futures markets... even shortselling in cash has been banned in other countries not the futures market... if shortselling is banned then how can the futures market operate ? only buyers for futures is impossible... the shorting ban elsewhere is for shorts in cash without delivery.......
In reply to:
Dangerous to Short the market
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Its very very risk to go short today.
For one short selling could be banned though i dont think PUTS will be banned.
Second the SENSEX`s RSI says BUY SENSEX and there is accumulation in sensex.
The NIFTY TRIN is oversold at 1.6 and i guess the sensex TRIN too should be oversold and in keeping with the fall.
The dowjones is bearish in all aspects but it showed RSI buy divergneces for two days in a row prior to ystday`s close. And the NYSE TRIN at 0.7 which is neutral is terribly bullish for such a fall.
So i wouldnt short the market. Contrarion views and all views welcome.
