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Market Analysis - Technical View
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Hi LM
If you new to the markets and a bit worried, I wud not blame you being US Based, I myself am UK Based. The idea is no one knows the bottom or top of the market. I was a complete seller 18500 onwards and finished selling by the time it was around 19500. The markets did another approx 2000 pts. Everybody told me I was wrong and the markets were headed for 25000. From my experience since 1992(Harshad Mehtas Boom -- When I started investing in the markets) never listen too much to the general view.
Either go by fundamentals or technicals, learn on e of them if you have to or better still both(atleast the basics)
I go by pure technicals but then I only invest in A Group shares which means the top 20-30 shares which I know are not going out of business, like Reliance, ICICI Bank, etc.
My view is markets may go down another 5-10% but then again we do not know. If anyone really knew exactly where the market is headed they would not be on this message board they would most probably be the one who is being interviewed(aka Rakesh Juhunjhunwala).
I strongly believed 12500 was the bottom as per my studies, it is broken now but I was 50% invested at that level and am buying at every level until I get fully invested. Which I am this week.
few of my stocks are at 15-20% loss but I am not bothered as I know when the market turns I am fully invested and ready for the next bull run.
People who will wait for a bottom will be still in cash and will most probably invest at above 12500 as the turn normaly happens fast just like inJanuary 2008 when the markets turned and the party ended.
You can check my archives to see my post before Nov 2007...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by :
learningmarket
Hi udydudy,
Perfect post at perfect time.I agree with you sir, but most of retail investro like me are confused if they should buy now or when sensex slips to 1k levels as same stocks will be available 202-5% more cheap. I am in US these dayz and the economy is going for a toss like anything. 700$ billion cant save more than couple of banks and many more banks are ready to crumble. So instead of buying now, will it not be good to wait and watch and then go for buying? I am just asking this question so that i can understand whether it is correct to enter now or enter after sometime?
Thanks in advance.
Cheers !!!
lm 
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Below 2950, I think 2500 & below 2500 I think 1800 levels are good. Be an excellent buyer that time....
In reply to:
2,950 to be a major level: Modern Shares
Posted by :
MMB Messenger
Neppolian Pillai of Modern Shares and Stock Brokers said that anything close to below 11,600 on the Sensex and 3,500 on the Nifty for one or two days will mean that we will go into a structural bear market. Subsequently, the collapse could be huge. He feels that the next major level is going to come around 2,950, and then further down to 2,660.
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Neppolian Pillai of Modern Shares and Stock Brokers said that anything close to below 11,600 on the Sensex and 3,500 on the Nifty for one or two days will mean that we will go into a structural bear market. Subsequently, the collapse could be huge. He feels that the next major level is going to come around 2,950, and then further down to 2,660....
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amarakbar, buying with 25% money is good, 75% should be in cash.
early downward firework had started for this diwali, let us hope its get stable before Diwali....
In reply to:
BUY NOW WITH ALL CASH 8 oct 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Friends,
11 am 8 October 2008 bse 30 is at 10838 and nifty 50 at 3360.
NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY WITH ALL THE STRENGTH , instead of being scared or too greedy or too oversmart.
Logic says after such swift downmoves , bottom is very near and may be now in less than 5 trading days market will start its recovery.
wish all my readers profits, peace of mind and happy diwali.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
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in range 3113 was not that far on nifty ,downward impulse wave is almost over, my 25% buying is over, time to wait and watch....
In reply to:
EWT Alert: Bounce Back on card
Posted by : sam_pd
I was expecting a bounce before new low is made on nifty but it didn't happened. i was expecting a bounce back before 3824 is hit but new low is made on nifty and that has opened another impulsive wave. new target on nifty is not good and it gives a level below 3200(in range of 3113).details of ewt chart is on my blog.
as $700 billion bailout got denied,who knows deal is over or they will meet again. I hope that today a big fire sale happens and pick some more fire sale goodies or scraps.
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The Sensex and the Nifty plunged to multi-year lows as selloff intensified in global markets. The selling was so heavy that 17 out of 30 Sensex stocks fell to their 52-week lows.
...
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hembhat-I feel that"Fear Complex"is slowly building up!!Lets hope that we are slowly coming to the end of this process!!Lets hope that the Sun will shine brightly tomorrow!!Roping in FII`s seems t be the biggest mistake ever committed!!So when no one(Indians)have money,these opportunusts(FII`s and Hedge Funds)will scoop in to take the bacon home(Quick and Easy Money)!!...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : hembhat
You described it correctly. But we are yet to see capitualtion of index heavy weights. Midcaps & small caps have been cut to size, so downside is not so great as compared to hwat heavy weights have in store. Nifty has to touch 3000. This will be gradual process, like slowly killing medicine. The survivors will see the light at the end of tunnel.
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Dear amar,
markets may touch 3200. so wait for some more time before entering. Anyways small buys are advisable.
shakti...
In reply to:
BUY NOW WITH ALL CASH 8 oct 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear Friends,
11 am 8 October 2008 bse 30 is at 10838 and nifty 50 at 3360.
NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY WITH ALL THE STRENGTH , instead of being scared or too greedy or too oversmart.
Logic says after such swift downmoves , bottom is very near and may be now in less than 5 trading days market will start its recovery.
wish all my readers profits, peace of mind and happy diwali.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
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The support for the Sensex is 11150 and the resistance to the up move is at 12152- 12352....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Friends,
11 am 8 October 2008 bse 30 is at 10838 and nifty 50 at 3360.
NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY WITH ALL THE STRENGTH , instead of being scared or too greedy or too oversmart.
Logic says after such swift downmoves , bottom is very near and may be now in less than 5 trading days market will start its recovery.
wish all my readers profits, peace of mind and happy diwali.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...
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Market to tough below 11000 and Nifty to crash below 3400 soon.
...
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Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has made a low around 11500 which is close to the support zone on the lower side of the channel. The channel is roughly around 11200-11500 as shown in the chart few days back. Technically the indices are in oversold zones , channel support and ideally should give a bounce back in near term. Also as seen previously markets have given sharp bounce backs after 27-29 % erosion in prices and we are almost getting into that area. Shorting should be avoided near to 11200 roundabouts and one can look to buy 3800/3900 calls as pure risk on dips to those levels .
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Its very difficult to stay composed in such conditions for a trader or investor but the only way to invest in these markets is to go staggered /slow in small lots and continue to maintain decent cash levels too even when things look so cheap, undervalued and tempting levels. Although technically the best way to buy is only on a turnaround and which may take a lot of time to come and value investing is a different story altogether and much more difficult too in current conditions.
As a matter of discipline investors should not commit more then 50-60 % even at 11200-11500 so that risk is lesser and decent cash levels could be utilized in panis or in a comfortable environment. Buying should be done 10-15% of intended qty at one price and then buy on further 10% falls in particular stocks.
Randomn Thoughts :
RBI,SEBI,FED,SEC all the policy makers are suddenly coming out with statements about liquidity concerns and measures. In the real terms its more of a reactionary measure then a precautionary one which doesnot help much.
Although the measures would have led to 5 % jump in seconds in better times are now suddenly seeing the news being sold into. Well coz majority of the measures are not to boost the money markets but to stop them from causing more damage.
I would expect CRR cuts followed by a repo rate cut soon . Fed may start cutting rate with an adhoc one possibly but it may be too late. Financial markets are under-pressure not because companies are going bust but the money and liquidity is not present so things may take much time to settle and consolidate. Suddenly inflation,crude, commodity,food is out of the picture ! as now its more of a financial mess!! and less of macro-economics. The month of October would be very crucial as lot of economic policy decisions may be taken !!.
Dow Jones :
Although the index made an interesting pullback from 9500 levels and giving a decent close but has not complemented the move in the next session. Technically 9500-9800 levels are important for the index as below which the supports and retracements are quite deeper. Also the index is highly volatile so one needs to see a confirmed closing before one can look for more indications....
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Dear Surinder Singh
The situation has almost turned into a crisis and as IMF also has said that India too is vunlurable in these situation. Inflation will be the biggest problem here in India.
Cheers...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by :
Surinder Singh
It is reported FII`s sold about 10 bls which caused crash.fii`stotal holding may be many times over.LIC reportdly invested 20k crs witout any relief to market.The rott seems unstoppable.The turmoil in USA/EAUROPE is far serious.When it ends is presently unknown.It is so far subprime.what will happen if defaults occur in loans/corporate bonds is any body`s call.
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Venture funding :
The round of funding for a new company that follows seed funding provided by venture capitalists.
TC-081008-S-01...
In reply to:
< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Leasing finance :
A method of acquiring business equipment without capital outlay. the bank or finance company buys the equipment and leases it to the customer, in return for regular rental payments for the duration of the lease period.
TC-071008-S-01
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i think you are right. We should think of bad days when we are going through worst times.
After some days, all large caps will look like penny stocks.
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear Shakti,
I think we are heading down, and no support seen here, so picking up the stocks can be delayed for Two or three days...
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