Market Analysis - Technical View

28th July

Posted by : gv

Yes your right the averages are decreasing,But over all revenue increase
seen
another area is petrol consumption increasing not talking about diesel
In spite of tight financing,the 2 wheeler and car ales are not showing significant low numbers
In spite of increase in food prices,the mid size restaurants are doing busy bussines
Number of students join professional courses are higher to previous years
People are moving out of cable to DTH,numbers are showing
Housing loan has come down,may be people don't want to put money for long term
Remember Pay commission money is going to come soon
Today i visited ICICI both Dmat section and trade section are empty
My friend at bank told me credit card defaults slightly increased
So the scene is bit confusing to me,to take a call
Regds
GV

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

NIFTY: Bearish as far as trend following indicators MACD, ADX go, but the immediate term indicator Elder Ray's bull power and bear says Nifty is bullish and thats something becoz we lost considerably during the last hour of trade. The TRIN is oversold at 0.9 and even if it reflects some shorts, they may not get covered immediately becoz global cues are tepid. We could be volatile and rangebound, lackluster for most part of the day but could spurt anytime becoz of the elder ray indications. I would go long at lows. The MACD buy divergence disappeared with the 3:30 data based on which i bought one 5300 CE but it was present with the 3:15 data.

DOWJONES:Looks bullish per trend following indicators MACD and ADX. The Elder Ray too indicates bullishness as the bull power has increased as compared to 26th July and the bear power has a less negative value indicating bearishness fizzling out. The TRINS are in keeping with the rise and fall from highs. Nothing much to rea off the TRIN

CRUDE: Very very mixed and so could be volatile. For one the ADX has ticked up massively which is scary and very bullish. The MACD too says buy crude, so trend following indicators are bullish on crude. The Elder Ray too is bullish. But the RSI for the second day in a row says SELL CRUDE and there is distribution for the second day in a row which is bearish. Selling on rallies will be the trend in crude today.

FNO Cues: Only september FNO cues are worth tracking now but i need two more days of data to get study the pattern. Give fno cues a miss during expiry and in the first few days of the new contract.

10....9....8....Countdown on for.CRUCIAL

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear nightowl,
Jai shree krishna.
Adani and mundra belong to same group- they have good FUTURE ahead - my view is HOLD and add more in any panic if at all panic happens, i very much doubt any BEARISH period as we are at CRUCIAL PROBABLE UPWARD BREAKOUT POINT.
I am from Gujarat , have little better idea about groups of Gujarat.
Your investments are good, just give them 2 to 3 years to yield results,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

jatt,

as mentioned in my TA for today, oil shows both bullishness and bearishness and see both playing out.. oil was high at 120 one point and now 114.... RSI said sell two days in a row, distribution two days in a row both bearish and one knew the high price wont sustain... so if it goes up short, if it comes down go long... thats the beauty of mixed indications.. play both ways... you trade oil?

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

how sad that i bought only one lot of minifty... i do have one call 4300 CE september series so the two should more than wipe out losses today.. i bought the 4300 Sept CE for Rs 145 i guess and the minifty for Rs 4238... what about you?

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

jatt,

as mentioned in my TA for today, oil shows both bullishness and bearishness and see both playing out.. oil was high at 120 one point and now 114.... RSI said sell two days in a row, distribution two days in a row both bearish and one knew the high price wont sustain... so if it goes up short, if it comes down go long... thats the beauty of mixed indications.. play both ways... you trade oil?

28th July

Posted by : novice1000

dear gv,

There are two things one has to look at.

1)Taking a mobile connection is the cheapest compared to many other expenses these days.

2)Atleast some of the new connections might just be the change overs (just a possibility which cant be ruled out) to new service providers or change of numbers.

regards

PS: Hope you are aware about the declining average revenues per connection.

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

jatt,

as mentioned in my TA for today, oil shows both bullishness and bearishness and see both playing out.. oil was high at 120 one point and now 114.... RSI said sell two days in a row, distribution two days in a row both bearish and one knew the high price wont sustain... so if it goes up short, if it comes down go long... thats the beauty of mixed indications.. play both ways... you trade oil?

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

jatt,

as mentioned in my TA for today, oil shows both bullishness and bearishness and see both playing out.. oil was high at 120 one point and now 114.... RSI said sell two days in a row, distribution two days in a row both bearish and one knew the high price wont sustain... so if it goes up short, if it comes down go long... thats the beauty of mixed indications.. play both ways... you trade oil?

28th July

Posted by : pkjattking

the storm brewing in gulf of Mexico will b over bi monday........ speculators will b left holding the bag when its over..n done with... however it seems like market makers want to take the our mkt for a bit of a ride.............. which is healthy in short term....... play defensive.... now ...ok.......

28th July

Posted by : gv

Dear novice,
You summed up nicely
But-I am not able to reconcile the increase in number of new Mobile connections
Month after month
Regds
GV

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

we are lucky, inflation numbers good.. our minnifty should fetch us good profit if crude behaves and GDP is good.. when is the GDP number going to be released?

28th July

Posted by : novice1000

dear pitquote,

Hats off to you.You have touched the crux of the problem.

Though i am not aware about the official numbers which you mentioned, i have been watching the ground level scenario very carefully and it clearly shows how the purchasing power has been shrinking over the years.

In fact the process of shirking started in the year 2005 and it peaked in the year 2008.And it would take a couple of years to recoup and to see some improvement in the purchasing power of the lower segment of the middle class and the lower class.

That is the reason i clearly mentioned in many msgs in the recent past \\` though markets raise temporarily for the time being, it is difficult to see those levels on a sustainable basis \\`.

Next one or two years ( basing on how crude prices pan out in the next 3 to 6 months), investments in stock markets have to be very stock specific.

While the investors are worried about their investments, lower segment of the society is really struggling hard to cope with higher cost of living.

regards

28th July

Posted by : vam_aru

Inflation eases to 12.4% on drop in fuel, power prices ( From NDTVProfit dot com )

US GDP is come at around 3.3 % ,Good rate considering the economic conditions, and The US markets are rallying now.

for our markets Inflation is the key, so tomorrow we should be seeing good rally in banking, Cap goods , and Infrastructure stocks ( as RBI will not Intervene with rates again for now )

Regards

Aru

28th July

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

we are lucky, inflation numbers good.. our minnifty should fetch us good profit if crude behaves and GDP is good.. when is the GDP number going to be released?