Market Analysis - Technical View

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : me2_4india

Continuing Forward Urs truly (with great knowledge of market turning points) said on 21st Jan 08 at 18.20 i.e after market closing and the next day big gap down market opening on 22nd January 2008 (we all know this was the day wherein sensex was at one point trading at 15% intraday loss), heres the message
Dear Harry,
You know, when going gets tough, the TOUGH gets going.
In my earlier messages i have clearly pointed that evenif rnrl becomes 108 and rpl 125 and bse 30 index 15800 even then we may make new high in current year only - technically speaking,
1. ACC 1300 odd rs to today`s low 670 - has almost COMPLETED CLASSIC A-B-C correction and now is ready for FRESH UPTREND.- Operator baby
2. RPL has similarly almost completed its A-B-C
60 Rs to 295 Rs the first wave magnitude 235 Rs present wave a corrective A-B-C 295-188 magnitude 107 Rs(A), 188-260 (B ) and now 260 -154 magnitude of 106 Rs, today the classic c is over in many shares, now any decline is a TRAP FOR BEARS .
Investors must INVEST NOW if they have disivested as per my book profit in longs message in first week of Jan 2008.
(MY STATEMENT - when did urs truly gave disinvestment call in First week of Jan, I remember the 6th Jan view of going long for target above 26k on the sensex
Urs Truly 6th Jan Message goes as cud be read
Dear chartlover friends,

Chart is ALWAYS your best friend.
It shows you the way.
Chartist may be wrong due to various reasons- biased mind, own buy/sell position, way of thinking, experience etc
BUT CHARTS ARE NEVER WRONG.

Have a look at weekly charts of LEADING A group shares- operator heavy and leading industrial gruops of India shares-
Since 17 August week their uptrends have begun , TYPICAL FLAG pattern is clearly visible in them.
Then came period of sideways move.
Most analysts defined it as DISTRIBUTION as it was after substantial rise - it was CONSOLIDATION - now breakout from that consolidation has happened- targets are MINDBOGGLING and almost ABSURD- RIL target 3800 Rs RPL target 448 RNRL target 360 REL target 4200
bse 30 index target 26000 and many more shares having fancy targets -
how, why , when is not important- 2008 it will be.
Typical Bear trap is bearish monday bullish tuesday piercing pattern, checkout if that happens next week - 7 and 8 Jan 2008.
We are in steepest ever curve rally in monthly chart.
In quarterly chart three bull soldier pattern is visible THUS, EVENIF current Jan- Mar08 quarter is BEARISH, April 08 onwards bullrun will continue.
If Jan- Mar08 quarter is big bull candle then April-June 2008 quarter will be final quarter of current bullrun and alltime high will be reached in that quarter and huge crash will materialise there.
Now the time is for those who are ABOVE ALL EMOTIONS and QUICK ACTING TYPE.
Have STRICT STOPLOSS for ANY LONG position at CURRENT F and O OPEN, YEARLY OPEN as they are PIVOTAL POINTS , below those bearish outlook, above them bullish outlook, stoploss being those open only.
If possible AVOID PLAYING F and O.
Market will always be there, if you overtrade , you will not be.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari )
3. Tatasteel , Tatamotors, Tatachem, IFCI, HFCL , ISPAT , Silverline, RIL, REL, RELCAP are now like FAIR PRICE SHOP - lootmart kind of market-
Advice to investors who have cash- INVEST in stocks of your choice, JO dar gaya samzo mar gaya.
Do not overtrade, do not borrow to invest.
High leverage has resulted into current crash, avoid that .
STILL we will touch 19500-20325 bse 30 index level BEFORE 28 FEB 2008.
Overcome greed and fear, take decision with unbiased mind.
like i have said once before, main hu naa !
MOTHER OF ALL BULLISH RALLIES IS VERY MUCH IN THE MAKING - by 29 Jan-19 Feb 2008 , all those will be sorry who will not sq off their shorts NOW at bse 30 index 17000 and nifty 4950 levels.
warm regards as always
Vipul Lashkari

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : me2_4india

Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions
Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn)
Dear Friends,
Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA.
Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more.
WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets

(I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message)

And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07
Dear friend,
It is an ageold practice.
Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON .
Oh, now this is the reason ! like that.
Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones.
I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani.
Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360
Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past !
Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there !
Their best gift to their late father.
Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS .
warm regards as always

And well on 29 DEC 08

In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010
rpl 120 223 510-558
rnrl 81 178 260-360

Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market

Dear Bearcartel,
My view at present is,
Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter.
For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE,
SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt

1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268

2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45

3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55

4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982

Dear Chartlover friends,
From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market-
MONTHLY CHART

1. January 2008 Big bull candle
Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements
2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE
Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking-
Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march .
FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls.
If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc
BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
3. March 2008 Big bull candle
making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar.

Dangerous to Short the market

Posted by : BearCartel

Short selling cannot be banned here without closing down the futures markets... even shortselling in cash has been banned in other countries not the futures market... if shortselling is banned then how can the futures market operate ? only buyers for futures is impossible... the shorting ban elsewhere is for shorts in cash without delivery....

Dangerous to Short the market

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Its very very risk to go short today.

For one short selling could be banned though i dont think PUTS will be banned.

Second the SENSEX`s RSI says BUY SENSEX and there is accumulation in sensex.

The NIFTY TRIN is oversold at 1.6 and i guess the sensex TRIN too should be oversold and in keeping with the fall.

The dowjones is bearish in all aspects but it showed RSI buy divergneces for two days in a row prior to ystday`s close. And the NYSE TRIN at 0.7 which is neutral is terribly bullish for such a fall.

So i wouldnt short the market. Contrarion views and all views welcome.

Dangerous to Short the market

Posted by : Guest

RN, HLN`s calls are in both directions. I had subscribed to his paid services and ended up losing all the amount i had kept for investment by following his Options predictions. And he changes his predictions 180 degrees once there are 4-5 continuous errors with his calls

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!

Posted by : udydudy

Chief_Kamani

Roping in FIIs was the best thingthat happened to the Indian markets. The bad thingthat happened (common in every market) was that greed got way into rational thinking at 21000. Rather than get out many got in.

Same way(atleast for people in cash) The FIIs by their stampede mentality(on both sides to & bottom) have brought A group shares to mouth watering levels one should surely buy now at these levels atleast into shares which have single digit PEs and book values.

Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!

Posted by : chief_kamani

hembhat-I feel that"Fear Complex"is slowly building up!!Lets hope that we are slowly coming to the end of this process!!Lets hope that the Sun will shine brightly tomorrow!!Roping in FII`s seems t be the biggest mistake ever committed!!So when no one(Indians)have money,these opportunusts(FII`s and Hedge Funds)will scoop in to take the bacon home(Quick and Easy Money)!!

IS ICICI the biggest loser ???

Posted by : Callahan

Surprising... I decided to check out the biggest losers among financial institutions to figure out who lost the most... I did this between the dates 16/7/2008 and 10/10/2008... The 2 dates assume importance since 16/7/08 is when we hit the previous low...

I did expect ICICI to be in the middle... It sure turned out that way... But what I was not prepared for was the biggest gainers and the biggest losers...

The biggest loser was DCB with a loss of 47.24%... It dropped from 47.95 on 16th July to 25.3 on 10th October... Surely a massive fall... Next came the surprise... IDFC dropped 44.18% !!! ICICI Bank was down from 519.75 to 363.65 a drop of 30.03%!!!

Coming to the best perfomers... One expected a HDFC Bank... Or a HDFC... But here too a surprise awaited me... Indian Bank was the Best Perfomer among all stocks moving from 78.4 to 127.15... A superlative gain of 62.18% !!! The next biggest gainer was Union Bank... with 46.02%... Then after a few non-descript scrips there was BOB with a gain of 31.45%...

PS: Network 18 lost 32.81%... More than ICICI Bank and so did... TV-18... losing 39.46%... A loss bigger than ICICI Bank... Wonder what the CNBC team has to say about it... Visit my blog for further details... Cheers

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : sambala

Fear and panic trump good economic news as loonie, markets pounded


TORONTO — Just about every financial and economic indicator in Canada tumbled hard Friday, as ever-deepening uncertainty spread like a red stain through the international marketplace.

The loonie and Canadian markets took historic hammerings as fear of a looming global recession sank oil prices, gold prices and almost every sector of the Toronto stock market, taking the shine off good employment news and new government help for the big banks.

"This is clearly a crisis and it is pervasive," said BMO economist Sherry Cooper.

"There`s no ending of anything that`s happening right now. Things are happening very quickly."

The loonie suffered its biggest drop ever, at one point falling 4.78 cents to 82.50 cents US and sliding under 83 cents for the first time since early 2003. It recovered somewhat to trade down 3.79 cents at 83.49 cents US later in the afternoon.

The currency has dropped nine per cent this week alone and has now fallen almost 28 cents since hitting an all-time peak of 110.3 cents US last November.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Stock Exchange fell about 500 points, dipping for a while below 9,000 for the first time since January 2005. In the United States, the Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 150 points, the index passing below 8,000 points before staging a weak late-day rally.

"Extreme risk aversion" rattled the financial markets despite increased rescue efforts by governments all over the world to calm investors and consumers, said Derek Burleton, a TD Bank economist.

"While... a lot of the government steps that have been taken will eventually contribute to the restoration of some confidence, right now the market is still in panic mode," said Burleton.

"There`s just so much selling going on that it`s feeding on itself and it`s driving more selling. We`re seeing flight out of any kind of what`s perceived to be higher-risk currency and into what`s perceived to be those of lower risk, such as U.S. dollar assets, U.S. dollar government bonds."

The loonie`s descent, however, is good news for battered Canadian manufacturers, who have been hit hard by the currency`s rise in the last two years. But it makes imports of everything from fruit and vegetables to machinery more expensive and will likely cause many Canadians to reconsider vacations to the U.S. southern states this winter.

The Canadian market has been hit hard by a plunge in oil prices, as crude dropped $8.89 to US$77.70.

That drop signalled some good news - further declines in gasoline prices for Canadian consumers - but also raised worries about the impact on the Western Canadian oilpatch.

Major oilsands expansions could be delayed or scaled back if crude prices fall further and companies can`t raise the billions of dollars needed for the projects.

"Oil is mirroring the stock market right now," said Phil Flynn, energy analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "There`s a total lack of confidence. It`s fear driving more fear."

The slumping currency and oil prices Friday took the shine from other more positive news on the Canadian economy.

In Ottawa, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is buying up to $25 billion in mortgage-backed securities from the country`s banks in an effort to pump more credit into the economy.

Shortly afterwards, the big banks cut their prime rates again, good news for people with lines of credit, consumer and car loans and flexible-rate mortgages.

CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld called it "a big step in the right direction for the Canadian banking system."

He said it will help banks that otherwise were facing punitive interest rates in the term debt market.

"It will also help borrowers in Canada that otherwise would face those additional costs being passed on."

CONT.....

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari

< Enhance Stock Knowledge Skills >

Posted by : TrueCompanion

Dirty float :
---------------------
A floating security whose value is not solely determined by free market supply and demand pressures but also by interventions of the concerned authorities.
---------------------

TC-101008-S-01

13 to 17 Oct 08 Last week of Fall

Posted by : amarakbar

Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari