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Market Analysis - Technical View
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NEW YORK: Oil dropped more than 6% to below $88 a barrel on Monday as a global market rout churned concerns that faltering fuel demand could slow further.
US stocks tumbled 6% to the lowest level in nearly five years as part of an international sell-off on fears the global economy was heading into recession.
US crude settled down $6.07 at $87.81 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low of $87.56. London Brent crude fell $6.57 to settle at $83.68 a barrel.
Crude prices have plummeted from a peak over $147 a barrel set on July 11 as high fuel prices and the growing financial crisis slow oil demand in top consumer the United States and other industrialized nations.
"The prevailing macro sentiment is now crystallizing around the notion that we are heading into a synchronized global slowdown, a mirror image of the across-the-board expansion we saw from 2004 to early 2007," said Edward Meir of broker MF Global.
Analysts are watching oil demand from China -- which helped fuel a 6-year rally in commodities -- for signs the crisis is hitting consumption.
The world`s No. 2 consumer will not import gasoline for the second straight month and instead export the fuel due to heavy domestic stockpiles and a dip in demand.
"I think the market`s starting to build this into prices," said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ. "You would expect the market is now joining the dots and thinking ... this will probably flow through to China."
The US and European governments are trying to underpin the financial sector but so far this has failed to reassure investors.
European shares suffered their worst one-day%age fall on record, sinking to four-year closing lows while trading in Brazil halted after a 15% drop in its benchmark index.
The drop in prices has caused some concern among OPEC members, while analysts are revising down demand outlook projections.
"Definitely there is worry. When the prices are so volatile, like rising to $140 and then dropping to below $90, it worries everybody," said Iraq`s Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani.
Ecuadorean Oil Minister Galo Chiriboga said OPEC will analyze the impact of the global financial crisis on oil demand and set production levels in accordance.
Iran said $100 a barrel was too low and urged members to respect their output targets to prevent oversupply from worsening.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil said OPEC would seek to balance the market when it meets in December.
...
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Whatyou are speaking dear.Silverline,Arvindmils,tatasteel all were the stocks you gave a call to buy and see today all these stocks are 50-70percent down from your level.Only Shankarsharma,Ramesh damani practised aid what they said publically.Do any retail investors have any money to buy now?Any one can give cal like you without any accountability factor.Operators are short and not long .Elections does not always leads to Teji.HAve guts to say ,I gave wrong call and sorry to all the investors who are suffering because of me....
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by :
amarakbar
Dear shareviews,
My kind of calculations have worked for me in INDIA till now.
Do you think INVESTORS were responsible for worldmarket fluctuations of 2007 to 2008 period in Metals, USD , stocks , commodities etc !
In ANY market , SPECULATORS and OPERATORS are ALWAYS there.
They make you think what they want to and they trade just in opposite direction.
My view is, Operators are in BUY MODE at present .
Rest is all crap.
They were the ones who had initiated shorts since Oct2007 , they are wise and deserve standing ovation. Now as per my view they have ALREADY covered their shorts, have INCREASED their longs or holdings in the companies they are interested in .
By August 2009 to March 2010 we will have DOUBLE TOP in bse30 index and nifty50 index is VERY PROBABLE POSSIBILITY as per my own personal view based on my limited knowledge on charts.
We may even cross previous tops if enough shorts are created at lower levels by fools.
2 weeks to go now for end of bearish sentiments.
For level crazy readers- 12050, 11600, 11200 for bse 30 index level.
Usually when stocks are available cheap and at attractive rates , and even when there is enough cash available , most investors do not buy anything at all as they are scared.
They buy near tops and then feel sorry.
3 day simple moving average will be good friend who will let you know when you may buy. Any close above 3 day simple moving average now onwards will signal new fresh upmove for the market.
For smart ones - hint- USA and INDIA elections
worst quarterly result announcements will play pivotal and important role.
Thank you all responsible for boarder of the day
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari 
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You cant wait for nifty to below 3200, even if it come to the level I think 2008 will not saw the day. I think before that we will again see 4200 or higher by the end of Nov`08...
In reply to:
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
Posted by :
Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Friends,
In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.
CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :
Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.
This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,
LALIT.
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Good to know aout your analsis....Do u have any blogs ?
It will be good to know if you any blog...
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by : rudra_sinha
Mohanji,
I am travelling this whole week and on board a train right now. Just logged in to say, if anybody has 3900 straddle, book profit in the PUT and keep the CALL. I am bullish in market now.
Thanks,
Rudra
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As always, Good advice. I have been increasing my INVESTMENT with every drop in the Indices. And am now starting to make long positions in the Index via spread betting.
All are like I said Investments and to emphasize long term. One will only make money if you buy when everybody runs for the door.!!#
A Happy Diwali to you and all with a PROSPEROUS YEAR AHEAD!!!....
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by : amarakbar
Dear shareviews,
My kind of calculations have worked for me in INDIA till now.
Do you think INVESTORS were responsible for worldmarket fluctuations of 2007 to 2008 period in Metals, USD , stocks , commodities etc !
In ANY market , SPECULATORS and OPERATORS are ALWAYS there.
They make you think what they want to and they trade just in opposite direction.
My view is, Operators are in BUY MODE at present .
Rest is all crap.
They were the ones who had initiated shorts since Oct2007 , they are wise and deserve standing ovation. Now as per my view they have ALREADY covered their shorts, have INCREASED their longs or holdings in the companies they are interested in .
By August 2009 to March 2010 we will have DOUBLE TOP in bse30 index and nifty50 index is VERY PROBABLE POSSIBILITY as per my own personal view based on my limited knowledge on charts.
We may even cross previous tops if enough shorts are created at lower levels by fools.
2 weeks to go now for end of bearish sentiments.
For level crazy readers- 12050, 11600, 11200 for bse 30 index level.
Usually when stocks are available cheap and at attractive rates , and even when there is enough cash available , most investors do not buy anything at all as they are scared.
They buy near tops and then feel sorry.
3 day simple moving average will be good friend who will let you know when you may buy. Any close above 3 day simple moving average now onwards will signal new fresh upmove for the market.
For smart ones - hint- USA and INDIA elections
worst quarterly result announcements will play pivotal and important role.
Thank you all responsible for boarder of the day
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear TC,
It is your interpretation that i have gone over the top :-) I have always maintained the same view about the MMB polls - they are designed to harm the "majority" of the boarders..
Regards...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Dear RT
I cant believe, is that RT Sir ? Going over the top !
I am in a fix, yet very much composed.
Thanks & regards.
TC
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Dear RT
I cant believe, is that RT Sir ? Going over the top !
I am in a fix, yet very much composed.
Thanks & regards.
TC
...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : raj_tibs
Dear TC,
I think the Indian market is likely to be the top performing market in the next 3 years, IF commodity prices stay down. US market may be a very close second! SO yes, this is the time to buy those 2 ACC shares daily :-)
Regards
Posted by :
NooreshAddressed to Magnum, l;l;ll;', lakshmibhakt, M Stock Market, mysterioustud, lakho, Lalee, M S PATEL, LAJWANTI, MyVoice, MyShares, mysore bull, l33t, Myshare, Lakshmi J, lakalaka, myth, lahari, lado, mysterious, L.Sanju, Laakhi, laale, laarijo, labamba, labhcapitals, lakhs, ladia, LAHA KAKU, lakani, lakerland, lakhbirshoker23, lakhis1974, Lakhpat, lakhs63, lakhsman, lakkinara, lakna59, laksay, lakshmalhotra, lakme11, laksh123, laksh424, lakshb, Lakshmanan Sankar, laksh, lakshmannagurra, lakshmanb, lakshmi.T, lakshmicevi, lakshmidurga, lakshmikanth_jc, lakshmilab, lakshmin, lakshmipai, lakshmipathik, lakshmivsv, lakshmi_ma, lakshmi_ram2, lakshmi_subbu1, laksri2004, lal47, lalaharee, lale, lalgee, lalit dube, Lalit Jha, lalit.sanoria, lalit j, lalit kangal, l2p, laks, L. RAMANI, M B V Murthy, m_bhanu, magician007, magicsandy, magicwanda, magill, magixtokas, magrawal777, magu, Magula81, magupta77, mahabirajesh, lalasa, M Manoj, M_BEHL, M Manu, MZ, Mahabaleswar, M agarwal, m k jain, m k sharma, Laddoo Singh, m_v, lakshmanasamy, m_t, myselfabhi_w, mysorebulls, mystic_dreamer, mystocktoday, mysudheer, mythri, myunus, mzaveriin, mzd, mze100, mzeeogigo, m_32d, m_arumugam, m_ashar45, m_bhaski, m_bubna2000, m_dhakshna, m_dhamania, m_gaur, m_i_khilji, m_k100, m_kherdekar, m_maitra, m_mnc, m_m_s, m_negandhi, m_premrajka, m_raghava, m_ram, m_satyaprasad, m_sonawane, m_s_satish, m_viswa, Mystery, labhu, MyStockMarket, Laaaaaloooooo, LAKLAK, magus, LAKMAN, M H Shah, Ladda, lalgudi, mystic, mywaymp3, mah123, my_money, lalia, myselfpra, magic_123, lalit keswani, myself, Ladi, Lakshmi2502, Laksh_1979, L'leTommyStout, M
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The above levels are the biggest debate between all types of technical analysts be it Elliot, Classical, Wave or whatever.
Although I am mainly stock specific so prefer to go with the Classical patterns but do tend to have a look into various theories for index calculations.
Now let’s see the points of debate based on primary assumptions of technical analysis.
1) Bullish or Bearish in the long term.
2) Historical Comparisons.
3) Time Period.
4) Price Target.
5) Miscellaneous Observations
6) Observations and Conclusions.
1) Bullish or Bearish
There is hardly any technical analysis theory or analyst who would give a 6k Sensex and 2k Nifty target and consider the indices to be in a major bear trend and we may not go above 21k in the coming decade and continue to be in a range of 6k-21k as we did in 1990-2000.
Majority of the technical theories and analysts continue to maintain that Sensex is in a long term bull market and may knock new highs in the next decade or say 3-5 years.
2) Historical Comparisons.
Let’s start with bear markets in India.
Although there is no hard and fast rule about what could be termed a bear markets. I would consider any fall of 20-50 % from peak in absolute terms and spans for more then 5 months to 2-3 years.
I have still not understood why every analyst thinks it was only 2000 to 2003 was the only bear market but that could be because all have been tracking Nifty only which started in 1994.
Sensex corrected 40 % in 1986 -1988, 1991, 1992-1993. The important one would be 1986-1988 and 1992-1993 as they lasted for more then 8-13 months and can be used for the comparisons.
Although if one is looking at a structural bull market then the most important one to be considered would be the 1986-1988 bear phase. As this goes well with the multi-year breakout which happened in 2005.
Comparing current bear market phase to 1992-1993 and 2000-2003 Sensex has one concern that during the period of 1990-2003 Sensex continued to range between 2k-6k. And all through after a bull run market ended up touching the lower side range of 2k. So in such a comparison it would imply a testing of the breakout of 6k in 2005 for current index and then make a new range of 6k-21k which may last for another decade ??? !.So definitely there are questions on both sides whether to consider 1992-1993 , 2000-2003 or consider the 1986-1988 corrections.
Charts for reference:
Sensex 1986-1988 correction
Sensex 1992-1993 correction
Sensex 2000-2003 correction.
USA – Dow Jones
This is the oldest available index in the world and also the biggest economy so it makes sense to compare a highly mature market for any part of technical analysis.
Here again the structural bull runs were seen in 1930s and 1980s. So 1937-1942 and 1987 would be important ones to watch for comparison as these corrections led to the major bull rallies. I have been comparing the US economic scenario of 1980s to India of 2000s. And the pattern of multi-year breakout seems to be very similar on both cases. Have extensively included the same in our come look into the future presentation.
Also one more observation is that October is a Bear Killer month for Dow Jones. According to the Stock Traders Almanac (which is the authority on seasonal trends), October crashes took place during 1929 and 1987. October downturns also took place in 1978, 1979, 1989, and 1997. October, however, is also known as a "bear killer". Bear markets ended during October in 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2002. Charts 2, 3, and 4 show October bottoms in 1987, 1998, and 2002. October also saw big gains after bad Septembers in the five years from 1999-2003. We have to consider October month importantly as US backed recession is leading to financial crisis all over the world.
3) Time Period.
This is the most difficult part of analysis and nothing can be termed to be accurate. But Classical and Elliot wave analysis do prefer a correction span of 8/13/21/34 months.
Now for Sensex there are mainly two camps which believe either the correction span ends in October 8 months or February/March 09 or the other one being the correction span goes well into Oct 09 or Nov 2010.
If 11k/12.5k is supposed to be a bottom then end of 2009 could see the new rally commence. This theory lays mainly a comparison to 1987, 1992 bear phase.If 9500 or lower has to come in Sensex then yes the focus may shift to a correction span of 21 /34 months and the new rally to commence in 2011. This theory lays mainly a comparison to the 2000-2003 bear phase.
Although it is very difficult to give a time analysis for markets and economies but this is an attempt which many of the theories may point out too.
I personally would prefer and give a very high probability to the 1st theory of 11k/12.5k and 2009 mid to end to be start of the next rally as this has been the standard view since last few months about an econ
Search Nooresh...
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The dow and nifty both show accumulation. Dow shows accumulation for two days in a row. I FEEL today they close with robust gains.
The NYSE TRIN is once again overbought at 0.5 inspite of the fall.
Our own TRIN at 3 is grossly grossly oversold perhaps reflecting a fair bit of shorts which should get covered causing a rally. But otherwise all indices only indicate bearishness....
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Market to open in Green
Stocks to recover despite USA and Asian market low profile.
Indian market will see a surge in its level. There is going to a big volume trading as well as number of stocks on trading list.
Day is good for profiters....
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U r right dear Bul2008. The next bull run will be very fantastic whenever it happen and of course India growth story is still intact, no doubt about that. Slowly and gradually one can enter in the market now and invest in frontline largecap stocks for long time....
In reply to:
Bull & Bear phase of the market
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear ank1977
The markets are in normal course of correction after a consistent bull run from May 2003 when the nifty was at 1000 and it peaked out at 6300 in jan 2008 a five year bull run which has just snapped due to fundamental reasons of sub prime and execessive speculation in crude, metal markets. This may take some more time to settle as the pain is severe in US markets. But this not the end of all bull runs.
The bull and bear phases are just cycles of markets and end of this bear phase will bring bigger and stronger bull run specially in India due change and postioning of India in world trade. India will definately gain out these pains and emerge as a winner in long run.
Buy when the world is out to sell if you believe in India`s growth story.
Cheers
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In the last 4-5 years I do not think the markets have given such a buying oppourtunity. If there is a capitulation ahead today, Buy all fundamentally strong stocks without hesitation.
Markets will recover...Do not listen to scaremongerers, Do you think India is winding up??? yes there is doom and gloom ahead but the markets will recover. Invest what you can hold for a year or so and you will see double to triple digit gains over a 2 year period.
Buffet also made a paper loss on his first investment but finally made money when he sold which went on to give 4 times more returns had he held on..which is when he learnt to hold for the long term...
Look at the past the US came out of the great depression as well. The markets recovered long before the economy did.
Is reliance closing down?? then why the closing down sale on its stock price?? The reason is that sensex/index based scrips have FII holding who may be selling for cash flow reasons, as well as hedge funds selling to take advantage of the fera in the market.
I believe in a simple theory When the panwalla(no offence he may e richer and cleverer than you and me) asks you "saab kya share leneka?" is the time to sell and when everybody says sell the world is coming to an end is the right time to BUY!!
In the short term you may lose money on paper but when it recovers your paper loses disappear soonner than you can blink your eye!!!...
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Also, note the BS poll results - 2/3rds of the boarders will wait for 3400 to invest... So this should be the best time to invest :-)...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : raj_tibs
Dear TC,
I think the Indian market is likely to be the top performing market in the next 3 years, IF commodity prices stay down. US market may be a very close second! SO yes, this is the time to buy those 2 ACC shares daily :-)
Regards
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Dear TC,
I think the Indian market is likely to be the top performing market in the next 3 years, IF commodity prices stay down. US market may be a very close second! SO yes, this is the time to buy those 2 ACC shares daily :-)
Regards...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Sir,
Nifty 3300 looks likely. If somehow It breaches 3000 and touches 2600-2700, I am 80% confident the rebounce will be equally fierce with non stop flight to 5000 by current FY end.
Theory of probability seems to dictate index can not behave abnormally for a period of more than 6 months and Nifty 4200-4250 is inevitable in 6-8 months.
regards
TC
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Market Observations and Thoughts :
Dow Jones Technical View :
In my last update on Dow these were the words used ---
The next dip should take it to the 61 % correction level which comes to 9800-10000 zone. And for the very long basis 38 % comes around 9500 .
So in the bear scenario it is in the index could well settle out closer to 9800 +- 200 points.
After the bounce from 10500 levels Dow Jones has taken the dip towards 9800 zone and in worst case can go till 9500 odd . Technically it will get highly oversold in this zone and a bounce back should be in the offing from this point and then some sideways move. Although technically the index looks weak in the long run .
Crude : The downslide continues in crude and could see respite only at 85 levels and 100-101 on upside could be an important resistance.
Gold : The volatility remains higher then usual coz of the economic scenario. Resistance on upside 885/900 and support on downside 780/810.
Randomn Thoughts :
Some of the lines which can be important for next few hours :
" Lay Investors dont sell in LOSS they sell only in PANICs"
" Venturing out in rough weather can be fruitfull in market"
Suddenly one can see a panic and pessimism equivalent to the euphoria which we were seeing in January 2008 . The capitulation and panic may have brought in such unimaginable and dirt prices in many stocks to the extent of 80-90 % of the peak price but such a fall may create a short term or even a very important long term bottom zone after which markets could consolidate. Like in Novemeber to January Sensex dint make very big highs or crossovers but continued to stay at higher levels we may see Sensex and indices continue to stay at lower levels and consolidate before deciding the next move.
All global markets have turned highly oversold in the current state and quite a lot of economic news might have been already discounted in the near term and a decent bounce should be in the offing. There is a lot of blood on the street but thats when the real opportunities come in and also the greed of lower level buying may dissuade investors the same way greed dissuaded investors from selling in January. So even if one is panicky and wants to get out he may get little better chances in coming days!.
for more search Nooresh on Google......
